Interpretation of macro data on July 5: US unemployment rate/non-farm data in June Recommended reading: ★★★★

The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4% before, 4% expected, and 4.1% after being released.
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in June (10,000 people) were 21.8% before the previous value (27.2 before the revision), with an expected value of 190,000 and a published value of 20.6.

The literal data is one positive and one negative, but I personally think that the current US employment data may be distorted, and even if it is positive, the effect on the long side of the crypto market is relatively weak. And tonight’s data is not positive, although the expectations for interest rate cuts in September and December this year have indeed increased slightly.

Judging from the overall employment data, according to official US data, the job market has cooled significantly compared with the same period last year. The unemployment rate was 3.6% last year and 4% this year. The number of unemployed people was 6 million last year and 6.8 million this year. The overall data shows that the US job market is slowly cooling down. The series of effects brought about by the cooling of the job market are bearish for the US economy. As the job market cools, the economy also cools down, growth slows down, and at the same time, wage pressure eases, inflation pressure eases. Overall, it is good data, but it is still not enough.


Let's talk about the unemployment rate first. The unemployment rate is 4.1%. Powell mentioned in his speech this week that the Federal Reserve had anticipated the unemployment rate situation in the job market. Therefore, a slight deterioration in the unemployment rate in the short term is not enough to drive the Federal Reserve's expectations of a rate cut, unless the unemployment rate rises rapidly in the short term. Powell's original words were that the Federal Reserve would only consider intervention if something unexpected happened in the job market. In other words, even if subsequent employment data grows slowly, the Federal Reserve can still accept it.

Looking at the job market, the non-farm data in May was severely criticized. There was a clear contrast with the increase in the unemployment rate at that time, which made us speculate more that part-time or illegal immigration caused the jobs of native American workers to be taken away by immigrants, which led to more employment and increased unemployment. This period thought that the details of data statistics would be changed to strengthen the authenticity of the data, but this month's data was obviously not the case. There is still a contrast between employment and career, and the previous value data was only revised down to 21.8. Therefore, the contrast between the job market and the unemployment rate has caused the employment data to remain distorted.

Moreover, although the data for May was revised to 21.8, the market no longer recognizes this data. The data of 20.6 this month is obviously still much stronger than the data in April. So even if the market believes the revised data of last month, the US job market is still overheated. The data in June was slightly lower than the previous value and significantly higher than the data in April. The job market has not shown a significant decline.

Unless, the employment data has higher statistical rules and directly excludes illegal immigrants or part-time data, making the employment data more real, but this is obviously impossible.


Influence:
The overall data can be interpreted as positive, but it seems that this positive sentiment may be transmitted to the US stock market, but it will not have much effect on the crypto market. After the data was released, the probability of a rate cut in September increased again, but it should be noted that the probability of a rate cut in September was already 70% before the data was released. Do you think the market buys it? Obviously not.

The market reaction to tonight's data will still require us to wait for the opening of the U.S. stock market. My personal expectation for tonight's data is that it will help the market stabilize the current market and not fall. I don't expect tonight's data to return to a V-shaped trend. At the same time, if the U.S. stock market opens and the crypto market rebounds, pay attention to the breakthrough of the key resistance levels mentioned in the disk data I updated today. If these positions cannot be broken, talking about an increase is a joke.
#美国失业率 #美国6月非农数据高于预期