July 15-July 20 Macroeconomic Data Chronicle! Recommended Reading: ★★★
This issue is relatively boring, with less weighted data this week. The only weighted data this week comes from #ETH's ETF, which is more likely to pass on July 15th/July 18th. This week is also a period of intensive speeches by Fed officials.
Bold assumptions, careful analysis, welcome to Uncle Cat’s encrypted “channel”
July 15:
Ethereum ETF may pass,
Weight: ★★★
Time: 20:00-06:00 (UTC+8)
Impact: It has been delayed for nearly a month. Although its approval is a positive thing, the bullish sentiment may have been consumed in advance. The development of the bullish trend will depend on the situation.
US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in July
The data is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for manufacturing conditions and data in the New York State region.
Data weight:★
Data content: previous value -6 y expected -6
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The data shows the manufacturing situation in New York, thus reflecting the manufacturing economic activity of the week. However, New York itself is not dominated by manufacturing, and since it is state data, the impact is very small and it is only used for recording and observation.
July 16:
U.S. retail sales monthly rate in June
Data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce shows the retail sales in June. The data changes are used to measure the economic activity of the United States in June and to assess the inflation data in June. This data is also the most heavily weighted data of the week.
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 0.1% Expected -0.2%
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
By comparing the published data with the previous expectations, we can judge the level of retail activity in June. A high value means that the economy is active, which is good for the economy. A low value means that economic activity is weakening, which is bad for the US economy and good for inflation control and interest rate cuts.
U.S. import price index monthly rate in June
The data is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor and shows price changes of imported goods in June.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: previous value -0.4% expected -0.2%,
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The United States is a major importer, and price changes of imported goods will be directly passed on to consumers and sales terminals, thus affecting inflation data. If the data is higher than the previous month, it is not conducive to inflation control, and vice versa. According to current data expectations, although import prices continued to decline in June, the relative decline was smaller.
July 17:
Annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in June (10,000 households),
The data is provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which counts new housing starts in June to assess the situation of the U.S. real estate industry.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: Previous value 127.7 Expected 130 Unit (10,000 households)
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The US real estate industry has been in a downturn, but housing sales are still overheated in the short term due to immigration. By understanding the new housing construction data to assess whether the US real estate industry is growing actively, it will provide some evaluation data for real estate and rents. If there are more new housing starts, it proves that the real estate industry is recovering and more people are willing to buy houses, which will also reduce the rent data in the inflation data for a certain period of time in the future.
U.S. industrial output monthly rate in June
The Federal Reserve provides data on U.S. industrial output in June to assess the U.S. economy.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: previous value 0.7% (0.9% before correction) expected 0.3%
Data time: 21:15
Data impact:
The data shows the output of the U.S. industrial sector in June. However, since the current U.S. economic focus is not on the manufacturing industry, the influence of the manufacturing industry data has been greatly reduced. This data is only for reference. The current data expects that industrial output in June will decrease and economic activity will slow down.
U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 12 (10,000 barrels)
Data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration is used to compile statistics on U.S. crude oil inventories and thus assess U.S. crude oil prices.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: Previous value -3.443 million barrels,
Data time: 22:30
Data impact:
An increase in inventory or a decrease in inventory will slow down the supply and demand of the U.S. crude oil market, which will help reduce oil prices and control inflation. However, this data is for July and is only recorded this time.
July 18:
Ethereum ETF may pass,
Weight: ★★★
Time: 20:00-06:00 (UTC+8)
Impact: It has been delayed for nearly a month. Although its approval is a positive thing, the bullish sentiment may have been consumed in advance. The development of the bullish trend will depend on the situation.
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.
The data will be released at 02:00 in the morning. The Beige Book is a summary of current economic reviews, which is the Federal Reserve's assessment of the current economy. Unless there are special data or decisions announced, there will be no post-meeting speeches. This data is only for record.
The main refinancing rate/deposit facility rate/marginal lending rate of the European Central Bank in the euro area until July 18
The European Central Bank makes its interest rate decision.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: Previous value 4.25% Expected 4.25%
Data time: 20:15
Data impact:
Whether the ECB continues to cut interest rates will affect the liquidity of European funds, thus having a certain impact on the US stock market and global risk markets in the short term. It is currently expected that interest rates will remain unchanged in June.
Number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of July 13 (10,000 people)
The data is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor and counts the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending July 13, thereby measuring the short-term job market situation.
This data is released every week. Unless there is a large difference, the impact on the market is small and can be ignored.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July,
Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia measures manufacturing activity in the region, thereby assessing the regional economy.
Data weight: ★★
Data content: previous value 1.3, expected 2
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
Philadelphia Fed data covers Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware, and has a higher weight than New York Fed manufacturing data. It is also a concentrated expectation of the US manufacturing industry. The rise and fall of the manufacturing industry in this region will provide an important reference for assessing the recovery of the US manufacturing industry and economic activity. Those who are interested can pay attention to it.
Summarize:
Overall, there was not much data that could have an impact on the risk market and the crypto market that week. Although Federal Reserve officials spoke frequently, there was a high probability that there would not be any market-driven remarks.
At present, the only data that has a significant impact on the market trend is Ethereum's ETF, and my personal assessment of its impact on the market will become weaker and weaker. We will update the content at any time depending on the situation.
#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BTC
