What stage are we in now?

If we look at it from the previous bull and bear stages, we are now in the monkey market stage between the small bull market and the big bull market in the currency circle. The currency circle has a four-year cycle, one year of bear market, one year of lying bottom, half a year of small bull market, half a year of monkey market, and one year of big bull market. Before the big bull market comes, there must be a half-year monkey market to clean up the floating chips in the plate. This round of small bull market will start in October 2023 and end in March 2024, which is almost half a year.

The monkey market started in April 2024 and will probably end in August. It depends on whether this wave of washing is thorough or not. If it is washed thoroughly, the monkey market can end in advance, and if it is not washed thoroughly, it will end in September. Now the currency circle belongs to the monkey market stage between the small bull market and the big bull market! The big bull market will probably start in October and end in April 2025. The big one has not come yet, so wait and see for opportunities!

Why does a black swan appear?

First, let's take a look at the current market sentiment.

In just 2 days, the entire CT (Crypto Twitter) became bearish and began to sell madly.

The two largest economies began to sell their assets:

Germany transferred assets worth $175 million and began to sell them.

The United States transferred $241 million worth of Bitcoin to the exchange and prepared to sell it.

In short, Bitcoin is still Bitcoin in this bull market, and Ethereum is also okay, but the current wash-out is completely consistent with the callback of the previous bull market in terms of amplitude and time. The longer Bitcoin fluctuates between 5 and 6, the greater the opportunity space for the subsequent Shanzhai.

Although the second half is the home court of hot Shanzhai, this wave of wash-out is thorough, and there are favorable expectations and good narratives in the future. The space for outbreak is definitely larger than the first half. It is not a problem for everyone to get back their capital, but a problem of how much they earn.

But in the future, we need to adopt a separate strategy for altcoins. We cannot build altcoins based on the bull-bear mentality. In addition, this round of bull market is favored by mainstream funds outside the market, and mainstream projects should be the focus of attention. There is no "altcoin season" in which altcoins generally rise, and there will be no "altcoin season" in the future. The secondary market will only become more and more difficult to play in the future.