The mild performance of this round of bull market is actually closely related to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. At present, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to conduct aggressive quantitative easing and zero interest rates, but only slightly cut interest rates. Considering several key time points such as interest rate cuts, the US presidential election, and Ethereum ETF, we conducted an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's market share. Combined with the chart, it is predicted that Bitcoin's market share may drop to around 43% by the end of the year. Because of the support of ETFs, its market share is unlikely to fall below 40%. Then, the alt season may be between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. But please note that the market may collapse after the alt season, and the top of the market should appear in the fourth quarter, not at the end of 2025 as many people imagine.