Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) data shows a significant increase in buying pressure in early 2024. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January and rising interest from institutional players. However, as time went on, the market also experienced significant selling pressure, especially in May and June. These fluctuations are closely related to regulatory developments in major markets, directly affecting player sentiment and Bitcoin prices. Judging from historical data, the buying and selling activities in the Bitcoin market are obviously cyclical. The heavy buying in late 2020 and early 2021, and the sell-off period in 2022, fully reflects this cyclical behavior of the market. Currently, while Bitcoin faces short-term volatility, long-term buying pressure supports its bullish outlook.
At the same time, the Grayscale Research team's report also pointed out that the selling pressure in June came from many aspects, including the liquidation of the Mt.Gox bankruptcy estate, the liquidation of the German government, the sale of the US government, and the reduction of Bitcoin miners. Despite this, Microstrategy purchased nearly 12,000 bitcoins in mid-June, which played a certain role in supporting the price. Grayscale Research expects that the spot Ethereum exchange-traded product (ETP) will begin trading in the third quarter of 2024. If there is no major change in the macroeconomic outlook, the Grayscale team believes that the valuation of the cryptocurrency market will recover in the coming months. They are optimistic about the valuation prospects of cryptocurrencies for the rest of the year and believe that the macro environment still supports the crypto asset class.
In June, the price of Bitcoin fell by 7%, but the spot Bitcoin ETF received a net inflow of $790 million. This phenomenon reflects the strong market demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, with players still willing to invest funds in this area even amid price fluctuations. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) became the largest Bitcoin fund, attracting more than $1 billion in inflows. This shows that players have significantly higher confidence in IBIT than Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has experienced huge outflows during the same period. This change in capital flows reflects the market's recognition of different capital management capabilities and credibility.
Despite the decline in Bitcoin prices in June, spot Bitcoin ETFs still received net inflows, which is in stark contrast to the large-scale outflow of spot funds as a whole when Bitcoin prices fell 15% in April. This change is partly attributed to the increased market confidence brought by players' anticipation of the upcoming launch of spot Ethereum ETFs. Regulators and potential issuers are actively seeking approval, which shows the regulators' gradual acceptance of cryptocurrencies as part of the financial system. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out that the holding capacity of baby boomers players is stronger than expected, which is another driving factor for capital inflows in June. This shows that despite market volatility, long-term players still have confidence in Bitcoin and its related ETFs.
Finally, the proportion of Bitcoin long liquidations reached 70% in June, reflecting the volatility of market sentiment and the risk aversion of traders. When the price hovered around $60,000, the dominance of long liquidations once touched 70%, indicating increased market instability. The increase in the proportion of long liquidations indicates that players are more inclined to reduce risk exposure under downward market pressure.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that the spot Ethereum ETF could theoretically be launched the week of July 15. However, industry insider AP Abacus revealed that the S-1 approval date is expected to be in late July, which brings uncertainty to the market. The revised S-1 filing is due on July 8, and the final version may be submitted by July 12. Based on this schedule, it is indeed possible to launch the ETF during the week of July 15. However, industry sources pointed out that the approval of the S-1 still needs to go through at least two rounds of adjustments, which means that the launch time of July 15 may not be realistic.
Compared with Bitcoin ETF, the launch process of Ethereum ETF appears to be slower. The approval process of Bitcoin ETF is faster due to its market maturity and high trust from regulators. However, as an emerging financial product, the approval process of Ethereum ETF is more complicated, and regulators need more time to evaluate. This uncertainty has a huge impact on the market. Players need to pay close attention to the approval process of S-1 and related regulatory developments in order to adjust their strategies in a timely manner. Although the launch of spot Ethereum ETF will bring new capital inflows and price support to the market, the uncertainty of the launch time also increases the risk of market volatility.
The Korean Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) recently released new virtual asset listing standards to provide supporting measures for the upcoming "Virtual Asset User Protection Act". This bill requires all Korean crypto exchanges to follow four audit standards and is expected to have a significant impact on the market. From a data perspective, DAXA member exchanges have delisted 39 cryptocurrencies between January and June this year. This shows that Korean regulators have begun to closely monitor and rectify the market to ensure the compliance of virtual assets and user safety. In the next six months, about 1,333 virtual assets in South Korea will face reassessment. Although this measure may cause short-term market fluctuations, in the long run, it will help improve market transparency and stability.
Strict review standards will force exchanges and project owners to improve transparency and ensure that their projects have real value and legitimacy. This is a positive signal for the entire cryptocurrency industry, as it will eliminate those highly speculative and risky projects and promote the healthy development of the industry. However, the market does not need to panic too much. From historical data, although 39 cryptocurrencies have been delisted, they have not caused large-scale panic or plunges in the market. This shows that the market has gradually adapted to this regulatory environment. Players should focus on which virtual assets can pass the re-evaluation and continue to circulate in the market, because these assets will have higher market recognition and security.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 218 coins yesterday, worth $13.7 million.
BTC: Yesterday, a small negative line with an upper shadow was closed, indicating that despite the high pressure from above, the market bulls are still trying to fight back. The long-short ratio has risen again. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 218 coins yesterday. It is now below the 5-day moving average. MACD has shown signs of weakening again. There is a possibility of further decline in the short term. Be patient and wait for adjustments. In the process of the bull market, long-term holding of coins is still sufficient.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
TRX: It closed with a small positive line yesterday, and has recently been absorbing funds in large quantities. It is now above the 5-day moving average and may rise further in the short term.
The panic index is currently 50 (neutral) #比特币走势分析
