July 3 Bitcoin Market Analysis Macro Background

Fed Chairman Powell recently said that inflation may return to 2% by the end of next year or the year after. He stressed that the Fed's policy is still restrictive and that the current policy is appropriate. Powell mentioned that some service industry inflation is catch-up inflation, the labor market is cooling, and although wage growth is still above the final equilibrium level, it is falling back to a more sustainable level. Service industry inflation is generally more difficult to reduce.

Powell also emphasized that the balance of the labor market is moving in a better direction. When talking about the September interest rate cut, he insisted on his consistent view that there are two-way risks in monetary policy. Cutting interest rates too early may rekindle inflationary pressures, while cutting interest rates too late may cause unnecessary damage to the economy.

Market dynamics

There are currently some big players in the market betting on the Fed's interest rate cuts in July and September. The market believes that the current employment situation in the United States is poor and the risk of recession is extremely high. The Fed may have to cut interest rates in advance. Although Powell's speech is still in line with the rules, it does not provide new information. Investors need to keep an eye on the trend of the risk of recession in the United States and the expectation of interest rate cuts, which will largely determine the trend of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin market analysis

The current weak market of Bitcoin may be related to the expectation of a US recession. The uncertainty of the macro environment and the market's expected changes in the Fed's policies have both affected the price of Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The future trend of Bitcoin depends largely on the US economic situation and the policy trends of the Fed. Investors need to pay close attention to macroeconomic indicators and policy changes, especially the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts, in order to make more accurate investment decisions.

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