Current market analysis

The panic index has reached a low point in the past year recently, and even entered a state of extreme panic a few days ago. The continued panic has caused more people to sell at a loss and leave the market. Most people now believe that the bull market no longer exists, especially the copycat bull market.

But I firmly believe that the bull market is still there. Just now, a Bitcoin address that has been dormant for 13 years was activated, containing 33 BTC, worth more than 2 million US dollars. Every time there is a big bull market, many dormant addresses will be activated, but this situation rarely occurs in a bear market, which shows that most of these addresses are in the hands of active players in the currency circle, and they have a precise grasp of the bull and bear laws.

And from the quarterly line of Bitcoin in a larger dimension, the last quarterly line closed above the support line, and the new quarterly line has just opened, so I think the possibility of a sharp drop in Bitcoin is extremely small.

At present, whether it is from the macro level, the policy, or the indicators of various dimensions, it shows that the bull market is far from over.

Recently, everyone has been flooded with negative news about unlocking information. I always feel that unlocking is not the core factor affecting the trend. What really affects the trend is always the market.

When the market is good, there will be a pull-up situation. This happened to many altcoins in the first half. In the past few months, the market has been bad, so even if it is not unlocked, it will fall. Unlocking does not mean that all will be sold, but retail investors tend to get off the train immediately. Therefore, we see that the coins unlocked on the same day usually fall sharply. I think at least half of them are the chips thrown away by retail investors.

The number of retail investors holding altcoins in this round, both in terms of quantity and amount of funds, far exceeds any previous cycle. After the altcoins' big wash in the past few months, many people are now full of negative emotions. Everyone feels bad when it falls, and everyone is the same. I have always said that Ethereum should be the main focus in the second half. Holding Ethereum is my biggest belief at the moment, and it will never waver.