Let’s sort out the timeline first:

1. Early 2023, the chaotic harvest of the bears

1. Sol and bonk stir up the market


Market sentiment was at a freezing point, and there was still a strong bear market atmosphere. On January 9 last year, I wrote an article saying that the bull market was about to begin. The basis I gave at the time was that Sol had rebounded from 8, and bonk in the Sol ecosystem had brought a wave of traffic, etc. - although it sounds ridiculous, I believe that a hungry market can easily ignite the flames of a bull market with just a little bit of provocation.

2. Shanghai is upgrading fast


Afterwards, there were some sporadic increases, and suddenly people started to speculate on the only hot spot that could be found at the time: Shanghai upgrade.

A false news of a delay in the Shanghai upgrade could cause a sharp drop in the market, and people were still in a bearish mood and were very cautious.

I was deeply impressed by $ssv here. The market makers also took advantage of the market to sign market-making agreements, and retail investors shouted orders together. The stock rose well at the beginning, but then it became a competition to see who could run away first.

The Shanghai upgrade is said to be in April, but this wave of market ended in February - VCs and retail investors are all rushing to get in.

Looking back now, the upgrading of Shanghai and the downgrading of Hong Kong had no impact at all. However, those who had embraced this concept and promoted this narrative earlier would have reaped great rewards - if they had been more steadfast in their adherence to the principles, they would have suffered heavy losses, just like today.

3. The rise of inscriptions


At the end of April, I opened a space and posted articles intensively, saying that Ordi was a great opportunity for ordinary people to change their destiny. Unexpectedly, the price increased from 1u to 29u in half a month, which was too fast.

But after that, every chain was inscribed, everyone was inscribed, the money of retail investors was not enough to charge, and the flow of wealth accelerated.

So after July, the market became dead silent and the drumbeat of Inscription became weaker.

4. Bots are a flash in the pan


At that time, Unibot and Banana Bot gained some popularity, but it failed to sustain because they were very dependent on the overall market. As mentioned above, when Inscription collapsed and everyone was left with no money, it was a disaster.

2. VC coins and Bitcoin ETFs take off

TIA emerged as a dark horse in the quiet market afterwards, rising from 2u to 20, with huge trading volume.

This also makes me more optimistic about the future of VC coins. At the beginning, some tokens also had a strong wealth effect, including the tokens listed on Binance.

In particular, the expectations brought by the Bitcoin ETF and the actual capital inflow after its approval made some people in the market start to become rich, and their money began to flow into memes, etc.

Sol's dealer also worked very hard and performed very well with meme and others.

However, there are some similarities with the above inscriptions and the end of the Shanghai upgrade.
A large number of vc coins and meme coins were launched, causing money in the market to flow very quickly, and some people became rich overnight, while some people were trapped or lost everything.

In this part, a big realization is that in this PVP market, basically any target cannot have too many illusions, especially the current consensus is:

VC, project parties, market makers, retail investors, everyone knows that they cannot hold on for a long time and must choose the right time to sell. This leads to a result: the general bull market of these copycats is likely to never happen again.

The market will only come back when one of the following situations occurs. That is, there must be some situation that allows a group of people to make money, and then the market will rise again and attract attention.

For example, the Shanghai upgrade, inscriptions, Bitcoin ETF, etc. mentioned above are actually the same. When someone makes money, adrenaline is secreted, and then there is also money to go all in.

III. Current Situation


The newly launched VC coins have absorbed about 55% of the stablecoins. These coins have generally been falling, and some people have been selling them - airdrop parties and market makers.

Although the overall market value of the new meme coins is not large, the 100-fold increase in quantity has drained away another part of the market's liquidity.

So the problem now is very simple. Retail investors have no money and most people are not making money. Who can they expect to take over?

Where is the money for unlimited BTC purchases at 61,000 now? When will the dealers who are pushing up the VC coins dare to do so and can they make money?