Bitcoin has given some positive signals at the beginning of the third quarter. With the rally over the weekend, BTC/USD reached a high of $63,818, which gave people hope that Bitcoin could regain its bullish confidence. However, market participants remain cautious before breaking through the key resistance level of $64,000. Bitcoin still has a long way to go to maintain the bullish momentum at the beginning. In the coming week, the cryptocurrency market faces multiple challenges.

The bull market front still needs to be consolidated

Bitcoin had a good performance at the end of June, with a series of daily limit increases on the last trading day, ensuring that it achieved positive closings at the weekly, monthly and quarterly levels, and the rise continued into early July, with BTC/USD hitting a short-term high of $63,818 on the Bitcoin-to-US dollar trading pair. This trend brought a glimmer of hope to investors, making people wonder whether the previous two drops below the $60,000 range were just a bear trap.

In fact, in the past few months, Bitcoin has been fluctuating in a narrow range of $60,000-70,000. The two drops below $60,000 did not trigger further declines, but instead quickly rebounded back to near this key support level. This repeated trend of testing has led many analysts to believe that the price range below $60,000 may only be a temporary bear market trap, not a signal that Bitcoin has entered a bear market.

However, to confirm this judgment, Bitcoin needs to show stronger upward momentum in the next trading. From a technical point of view, the key to continuing the bull market is whether it can break through the important resistance level of $64,000, which brings together many key medium- and short-term trend lines, such as the 21-week moving average and the short-term holder cost baseline. Breaking through it will greatly enhance the market's optimism.

Once it breaks through, it is expected to accelerate towards a new all-time high; if it loses again, it is likely to test the $60,000 mark again, which is both a risk and an opportunity. Generally speaking, once the important moving average support is lost, the BTC price is likely to fall again, so investors need to keep a certain cash position to be fully prepared for the future.

Overall, despite a good start in July, Bitcoin still fell 7% in June and 12% in the second quarter. Bitcoin is currently facing multiple obstacles, and it will take more time and effort to fully establish its bull market status. In the face of this situation, investors need to remain cautious and patient.

However, there are also optimistic expectations for future trends. According to the analysis of the trading platform QCPCapital, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin usually performs well in July, with a median return of 9.6%, and tends to rebound strongly after falling in June. In addition, last Friday, the company's options trading department also observed some inflows, possibly in anticipation of the launch of the Ethereum ETF. Therefore, many signs show that July may be a bullish month.

Macroeconomics faces challenges

Bitcoin's current technical aspects are relatively weak. Before there is enough momentum to hit the $64,000 mark, the bull market of Bitcoin may not be able to continue. Other factors that can affect whether this key resistance level can be overcome will be some important macroeconomic data in the future. Investors need to pay close attention to the performance of these indicators and make full expectations for the future market trend.

Although July 4th is the U.S. Independence Day holiday, there are still a number of important macroeconomic data to be released this week. These are sensitive topics for both Bitcoin and altcoins, and may cause significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

A quick overview of key events of the week - Monday: June ISM manufacturing PMI data; Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech + JOLTs job data; Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting minutes; Thursday: stock market close; Friday June employment report data.

The first to bear the brunt is the US June non-farm payrolls report. Given that the job market has always been an important factor affecting the trend of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, the performance of these data will directly determine the future policy direction of the Fed, thereby affecting the overall sentiment of risk assets. If the employment data is weak, it may trigger expectations of further interest rate hikes by the central bank, thereby dragging down the prices of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

In addition to the employment data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the monetary policy forum in Portugal on July 2, which will undoubtedly attract market attention.

In addition, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve will be released on July 3, which will reflect the latest judgment of officials on inflation, and the market can further understand the Fed's next policy orientation. Overall, this week is a "short but very busy" week for the cryptocurrency market.

Mining recovery path worth paying attention to

In addition to macro factors, mining dynamics are another focus this week. In the past few weeks, there has been a "bankruptcy wave" in the Bitcoin network computing power, which may mean that mining companies will find it difficult to regain their former prosperity under the current low computing power price. If miners continue to face pressure, this may affect the recovery process of the entire industry.

Currently, the computing power of the Bitcoin network has declined to a certain extent, which is called "miner capital expenditure" or "miner capital expenditure squeeze". This means that some marginal miners may be forced to exit the market due to meager profits, resulting in a short-term decline in computing power. If this trend continues, it may put some downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.

Because miners are one of the pillars of the Bitcoin network, their income directly affects their enthusiasm for mining. If a large number of miners withdraw, it may slow down the transaction confirmation speed of the Bitcoin network, thereby reducing its attractiveness. However, some analysts believe that the current decline in computing power is only a short-term adjustment, and as the market environment improves in the future, miners are expected to regain vitality. The key lies in whether the price of Bitcoin can be maintained at a level sufficient to support the current computing power cost.

In general, mining dynamics is an important variable in the current trend of Bitcoin, and investors need to pay close attention to changes in this area. The recovery or further shrinkage of computing power may have a significant impact on the medium- and short-term price trend of Bitcoin.

Summarize

In summary, although Bitcoin has recently shown some signs of price rebound, it still needs to overcome many obstacles to move towards a full bull market. For long-term investors, it is better to remain cautious for the time being and wait for Bitcoin to regain its strength before choosing an opportunity to intervene. For short-term traders, it is most important to control the position risk and pay close attention to the technical support and resistance levels.

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