Analysis of Bitcoin Volatility and Market Trends

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been falling, but its volatility has reached a critical point, with the current volatility of 1.25%

What kind of level is this? Let's analyze the historical low volatility time points through historical data:

Since 2018, Bitcoin's volatility has been close to the low volatility state of 1% to 2% at the following 7 time points:

1. The last drop in the bear market in 2018: In the bear market, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated for 91 days. This kind of low-volatility oscillation market usually does not exceed three months in the extreme oscillation time of the currency circle.

After 91 days of oscillation, Bitcoin experienced a BCH fork, and the market fell for two months

2. Bottom of the bear market in 2018:

After the plunge, it fluctuated with low volatility for 105 days, which was also about three months, and then rose from US$3,000 to US$14,000.

3. The recovery after 312: After 77 days of fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin rose from about $7,000 to $64,000.

4. The last round of bear market: Before FTX exploded, Bitcoin fluctuated for six months, and then the market plummeted.

5. After FTX exploded: The market only fluctuated for one and a half months, but the price soared from $15,000 to $30,000.

6. In August and September last year: After two months of fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin rose from $25,000 to $70,000.

7. The current market: We are also in a low-volatility fluctuation stage, and the time has exceeded three months.

If the real direction of the market is to fall, there will generally be a false signal of rising, and then the falling market will start; if the market is rising, there will also be a false signal of falling, and then the rising market will start. For example, the Defi market in 2020, although it experienced a wave of sell-offs in September, the market eventually started to rise. What do you think of this wave? #BTC