#9月降息 The interest rate cut in September, the cryptocurrency market soared, will the result be like this?

It will definitely rise, but whether it will be a surge is still unknown.

There are three main reasons:

First, given that the market often sees a short-term rise after the recent favorable conditions are implemented, and then ends with a decline, this probability does exist. However, this September interest rate cut is very different from the past, and perhaps the script will change a lot.

Second, once the interest rate cut is implemented, bank funds will undoubtedly flow out. The first to take over this wave of traffic must be the financial market. In addition to the stock market, the cryptocurrency market may also become the biggest beneficiary. Today's cryptocurrency market has a huge influence in the world, with as many as 560 million participants. Where there are people, there are interests, and the cryptocurrency market is also a suitable place for capital to flow.

Third, except for the US stock market, which has been breaking the previous high, other stock markets are at a relatively low level, which will attract the favor of capital. Many high-quality companies will receive huge financial support, especially the artificial intelligence industry.
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？

2024.9.1 Industry News

• Today’s Greed and Fear Index is 26

•CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 30%. (Both rates unchanged and 25 basis points will cause a short-term decline, and 50 basis points will lead to an increase)

•The total market value of cryptocurrencies fell to $2.169 trillion, a 24-hour drop of 2%

•If Bitcoin falls below US$58,000, the accumulated long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 517 million

•Russia will begin trial use of cryptocurrency for cross-border transaction payments on 9/1

•The gas fee of Ethereum soared by 159.3% in 10 minutes, and the activity on the chain increased significantly. The current gas fee reached 2.24 Gwei.

•This week, the US Ethereum spot ETF has a cumulative net outflow of US$12.4 million, and this week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has a cumulative net outflow of US$277.2 million.

•A certain whale address deposited 139,000 SOL into Binance in the past 2 days, resulting in a loss of US$5.5 million.

•If non-farm payrolls next week are weaker than expected, there will be more reason to cut interest rates, and the market is waiting for positive signals to seek a breakthrough.

•Tron Network’s revenue exceeded US$36 million in the past 12 days, and mainstream CEX withdrawal fees doubled

•The total pledged amount of Ethereum beacon chain reaches 34,321,040 ETH, and the pledged ETH accounts for 28.02% of the total supply. Among them, the pledge share of the liquidity staking protocol Lido reaches 28.42%. Since the upgrade in Shanghai, there has been a net inflow of 16,178,832 ETH.

•According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 6:55 Beijing time, 13,161 ETH ($33,243,250) was transferred from an unknown wallet to Coinbase#以太坊基金会 #9月降息

#杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #9月降息
This week's focus:
1. At 21:15 on Monday, Fed Governor Waller delivered an opening speech at the summer seminar on money, banking, payments and finance;
2. At 1:35 on Wednesday, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivered a speech;
3. At 2:00 on Thursday, the Fed released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
4. On Thursday, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held;
5. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.
6. El Salvador still insists on investing one BTC every day, and currently holds more than 5,846 coins.
7. At 8:30 on Thursday, the number of unemployed people in the United States at the beginning of the week to August 17. (Important)
8. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 72.5%.
9. Wall Street is betting that Powell will confirm a rate cut.
10. BTC prices are not currently affected by Trump's chances of being elected, but will still be driven by the election results.

$BTC #9月降息 $PEPE $AEVO
Well, there may not be a rate cut in September.
Pie urgently needs to retreat.

Will Bitcoin fall back to $50,000 in September? These 5 positive factors can keep Bitcoin rising

It is said that September will be a weak month for cryptocurrencies. Despite this, I don’t think so for the following reasons:

1) Historically, September is usually a poor month for Bitcoin, with an average return of negative 4.78% and a loss probability of 72.7%. But not all Septembers are like this. There are also cases where there are positive returns in September after the decline in August.

2) Strong selling pressure has been cleared: In July and August 2024, there was a large-scale sell-off in the market due to events such as the German government’s sale of Bitcoin, Mt. Gox’s repayment of creditors, Genesis Trading’s debt restructuring, and government-confiscated crypto funds. As these selling pressures weaken, the possibility of a fall in Bitcoin prices in September decreases.

3) The strength of long-term holders: Long-term holders have accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin in the past 30 days, holding 75% of the total supply. Many large Bitcoin wallets are dormant, indicating that these holders do not intend to sell in the short term, providing a solid foundation for Bitcoin.

4) September rally for Bitcoin ETFs: After slightly negative inflows in August, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to see positive net inflows in September, possibly between $500 million and $1.5 billion.

5) Favorable macro environment: The expected Fed rate cuts, FTX's cash repayment to creditors, and the US election's support for cryptocurrencies could all have a positive impact on the Bitcoin market.

In summary, while September has historically been a challenge for Bitcoin, the outlook for Bitcoin in September 2024 may be more optimistic than historical data suggests, given the removal of major selling pressure in July and August.

#9月降息 #BTC走势预测 $BTC

📉 The Fed is on hold, and market expectations are dashed! 📉
 
📢Today, the Fed’s decision was released, and the meeting decided to continue to maintain the policy interest rate. Although the market originally believed that the interest rate cut was almost a foregone conclusion, the Fed’s statement this time seems to be much tougher than everyone imagined.
 
🗣️However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed at a press conference that although the interest rate trend in September has not yet been decided, his speech makes us feel that the date of the interest rate cut seems to be "getting closer and closer" to us.

👏At the same time, this is also in line with the general market expectations, and even the market has generally expected that the central bank has a 100% chance of cutting interest rates at the September meeting.

👀 Let’s take a look at the market’s reaction: bond yields and the US dollar have risen a little, but overall they are still low; the price of the Bitcoin market has also fallen, which has led to a slight downturn in the entire crypto market; the US stock market is quite happy, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes have a certain degree of small increase on the day.

📊Looking back at historical data, the Federal Reserve has implemented a historic tightening policy since 2022, raising interest rates from 0% to 5.25%-5.50%, and the inflation rate has basically remained above 2%.

🤔What do you think of the Fed's FOMC meeting and Powell's speech? Do you think there is still a high possibility of a rate cut in September? Will the Fed's decision affect your investment strategy? Welcome to share your thoughts in the comment section!

#美联储决策 #9月降息 #市场反应 #投资策略

Following the release of unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data last week that were lower than expected, the unemployment rate of 4.3% was a three-year high, triggering Sam's Law, which also means that the United States has entered the early stages of an economic recession. The non-farm data of 11.4 was a three-year low. After the data was released, the US stock market plummeted, the market began to panic, and sold out one after another.

Recently, the market began to exaggerate that the big pie would plummet back to 20,000-30,000 points. These people are often the ones who shouted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates and the market would break new highs some time ago. Without brains, they just follow the crowd.

First of all, I said in late July on the 19th that the future market would inevitably break 6 to 5. Even if the market reached 70,000, I would still stick to this general trend. As a result, some comments in the square said that I was a leek, garbage, SB, to be honest, at this time, deep traps and liquidations are these people.

The market broke the 60,000 mark yesterday and fluctuated in the range of 59,500-61,000. Whether the future market is likely to reach 50,000 points, we should now consider it carefully. Don't be too stubborn, be rational. The most important thing now is spot players. Considering the mainstream coins, 60,000 points can be divided into 1/3 of the market. For altcoins, it is better to wait for a big rise in the trend before considering it.
There is no need to mention the contract. It is the same whether it falls or rises. Short-term profits are for the long term.

Don't panic. The Americans dare to release the data like this, which is actually forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If Biden's re-election is popular, then the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in August. Now Biden has withdrawn from the election, and Trump disagrees with the current government's interest rate cut in September, but is very satisfied with Powell's work. Powell was kicked out of the Federal Reserve by Trump when he was in office, and then elected Powell, the then vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. You must know that Allen was friendly to Trump at the time, but Trump was a businessman, and he would kill you if he was unhappy with you. Powell is very consistent with the Trump government, and he is dovish. Now the Biden government wants hawks. Powell said it very bluntly, he was used as a gun, either being scolded at the press conference or criticized by members of the two houses of Congress. It is not easy for the old man, and he always has a stern face. Now that Biden is about to retire, he wants to cut interest rates to save the economy. Powell is not stupid, and he will delay it as long as possible. Anyway, if the interest rate cut is delayed, the people will eventually blame Biden for his incompetence, which is indirectly beneficial to Trump's campaign.
#鲍威尔 #9月降息