期权市场
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📈 QCP Capital is optimistic about BTC at the end of the year, and the options market reveals positive signals!
In its latest market review, QCP Capital mentioned that the latest non-farm payrolls data in the United States showed that the labor market is still strong, and coupled with the possible interest rate cuts later this year, risk assets have been boosted, allowing BTC prices to recover to the $62,000 mark.
The report shows that as we enter the last quarter of 2024, options market activity continues to heat up, especially the demand for December call options is increasing, which shows that the market is optimistic about the price of BTC at the end of the year.
Analysts believe that although macro data supports the bullish trend in October, geopolitical risks may become the biggest hidden danger in the market before the US election. Therefore, they recommend locking in the current yield level and preparing for a possible rise at the end of the year.
This view echoes the current market sentiment, indicating that investors are looking forward to the long-term prospects of BTC. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, the movement of the options market shows that market participants are positive about the future of BTC.
In short, with every ups and downs in market sentiment, the options market can always reveal to us investors' predictions about the future direction. Let's keep a close eye on the market pulse and capture every profitable opportunity.
💬What do you think of QCP Capital's report analysis? How do you think the BTC price will change at the end of the year?
#BTC #期权市场 #看涨趋势
In its latest market review, QCP Capital mentioned that the latest non-farm payrolls data in the United States showed that the labor market is still strong, and coupled with the possible interest rate cuts later this year, risk assets have been boosted, allowing BTC prices to recover to the $62,000 mark.
The report shows that as we enter the last quarter of 2024, options market activity continues to heat up, especially the demand for December call options is increasing, which shows that the market is optimistic about the price of BTC at the end of the year.
Analysts believe that although macro data supports the bullish trend in October, geopolitical risks may become the biggest hidden danger in the market before the US election. Therefore, they recommend locking in the current yield level and preparing for a possible rise at the end of the year.
This view echoes the current market sentiment, indicating that investors are looking forward to the long-term prospects of BTC. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, the movement of the options market shows that market participants are positive about the future of BTC.
In short, with every ups and downs in market sentiment, the options market can always reveal to us investors' predictions about the future direction. Let's keep a close eye on the market pulse and capture every profitable opportunity.
💬What do you think of QCP Capital's report analysis? How do you think the BTC price will change at the end of the year?
#BTC #期权市场 #看涨趋势
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🔍This Friday, the BTC and ETH options markets will see over $2.7 billion in notional value expiry
According to data from Coinglass, nearly 2.4W BTC options contracts expired on the Deribit platform today, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63. The maximum pain point price of these options is US$98,000, and the nominal value involved is as high as US$2.064 billion. .
At the same time, Deribit will have more than 16.8W ETH option contracts expiring today, with a call-put ratio of 0.70, a maximum pain point price of $3,700, and a nominal value of $639 million.
In summary, the above shows that in current options market transactions, market participants are relatively optimistic about the future prices of BTC and ETH.
In addition, analysts believe that the cryptocurrency market this week is dominated by shock adjustments. Compared with last week, Bitcoin's fluctuations were smaller, while altcoins' adjustments were more significant.
At the same time, as Christmas and year-end settlement approach, cryptocurrency market makers have begun to adjust their positions, with the recent trading volume of large call options accounting for an average of more than 30% per day.
According to historical experience, trading activity in European and American markets usually decreases during Christmas. Coupled with the increased impact of U.S. stocks on the cryptocurrency market this year, this trend may become more prominent.
Market reports pointed out that as market volatility increased, there was a small increase in implied volatility (IV) for major contract tenors. Therefore, market makers currently generally hold a cautious trading stance.
Options trading this week is mainly focused on short-term PVP (in-the-money ratio), so the cost-effectiveness of buying options is still very high, which also reflects that the current options market is particularly suitable for short-term trading.
💬Do you think this week’s options expiration will affect the prices of BTC and ETH? What unique trading insights or strategies do you have for the current options market?
#加密货币期权 #BTC #ETH #期权市场
According to data from Coinglass, nearly 2.4W BTC options contracts expired on the Deribit platform today, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63. The maximum pain point price of these options is US$98,000, and the nominal value involved is as high as US$2.064 billion. .
At the same time, Deribit will have more than 16.8W ETH option contracts expiring today, with a call-put ratio of 0.70, a maximum pain point price of $3,700, and a nominal value of $639 million.
In summary, the above shows that in current options market transactions, market participants are relatively optimistic about the future prices of BTC and ETH.
In addition, analysts believe that the cryptocurrency market this week is dominated by shock adjustments. Compared with last week, Bitcoin's fluctuations were smaller, while altcoins' adjustments were more significant.
At the same time, as Christmas and year-end settlement approach, cryptocurrency market makers have begun to adjust their positions, with the recent trading volume of large call options accounting for an average of more than 30% per day.
According to historical experience, trading activity in European and American markets usually decreases during Christmas. Coupled with the increased impact of U.S. stocks on the cryptocurrency market this year, this trend may become more prominent.
Market reports pointed out that as market volatility increased, there was a small increase in implied volatility (IV) for major contract tenors. Therefore, market makers currently generally hold a cautious trading stance.
Options trading this week is mainly focused on short-term PVP (in-the-money ratio), so the cost-effectiveness of buying options is still very high, which also reflects that the current options market is particularly suitable for short-term trading.
💬Do you think this week’s options expiration will affect the prices of BTC and ETH? What unique trading insights or strategies do you have for the current options market?
#加密货币期权 #BTC #ETH #期权市场
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📅 This week's financial events, next week's US election, and an overview of the Bitcoin futures and options market!
Thursday's core PCE data was a little higher than expected, but Friday's non-farm payrolls data was surprising, far below expectations, which caused the US dollar index to rise again. Some believe that this may indicate that Bitcoin will continue to pull back, because the US dollar index is usually a reverse indicator of Bitcoin.
In addition, despite the poor non-farm data, the US unemployment rate is still stable at 4.1%. Now everyone is betting that there will be a rate cut in November. According to CME data, the current probability of a rate cut is as high as 98.9%.
On Friday, the US stock market closed higher because of Amazon's good financial performance. Treasury yields also fell at first due to the impact of non-farm data, but then the market was cautious about buying bonds, and yields rose again.
Bitcoin also performed well this week, approaching its all-time high, and everyone is looking forward to the arrival of election week. However, Ethereum was relatively calm and failed to break through the 2.7k mark.
Moreover, ETFs have seen strong inflows this week, especially BlackRock's IBIT, which received $872 million on Wednesday alone, a record high. Although the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000 on Friday, market interest is still strong, and open interest in futures and options remains high.
In the short term, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is quite high, and everyone is preparing for election week and buying a lot of put options to protect themselves. Speaking of the election, although Trump's approval rating was high before, it now seems that the gap between his approval rating and Harris's is narrowing.
However, no matter what the result is, the market may reappear the "good news is out" market after the election!
💬 What do you think of the market dynamics this week? What possible impact do you think the election results next week and the FOMC's rate cut decision at the end of the month will have on the market? Come to the comment section to talk about your views!
#财经事件 #美国大选 #期货市场 #期权市场 #美元指数
Thursday's core PCE data was a little higher than expected, but Friday's non-farm payrolls data was surprising, far below expectations, which caused the US dollar index to rise again. Some believe that this may indicate that Bitcoin will continue to pull back, because the US dollar index is usually a reverse indicator of Bitcoin.
In addition, despite the poor non-farm data, the US unemployment rate is still stable at 4.1%. Now everyone is betting that there will be a rate cut in November. According to CME data, the current probability of a rate cut is as high as 98.9%.
On Friday, the US stock market closed higher because of Amazon's good financial performance. Treasury yields also fell at first due to the impact of non-farm data, but then the market was cautious about buying bonds, and yields rose again.
Bitcoin also performed well this week, approaching its all-time high, and everyone is looking forward to the arrival of election week. However, Ethereum was relatively calm and failed to break through the 2.7k mark.
Moreover, ETFs have seen strong inflows this week, especially BlackRock's IBIT, which received $872 million on Wednesday alone, a record high. Although the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000 on Friday, market interest is still strong, and open interest in futures and options remains high.
In the short term, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is quite high, and everyone is preparing for election week and buying a lot of put options to protect themselves. Speaking of the election, although Trump's approval rating was high before, it now seems that the gap between his approval rating and Harris's is narrowing.
However, no matter what the result is, the market may reappear the "good news is out" market after the election!
💬 What do you think of the market dynamics this week? What possible impact do you think the election results next week and the FOMC's rate cut decision at the end of the month will have on the market? Come to the comment section to talk about your views!
#财经事件 #美国大选 #期货市场 #期权市场 #美元指数
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Bitcoin is surging, can November options break through $100,000? Are you ready?
Imagine, if you are standing at the forefront of Bitcoin, watching it break through resistance step by step and approach historical highs, how excited would you feel? Right now, Bitcoin bulls are gathering momentum, with November's OI concentrated at $80,000. Is the $100,000 mark just a matter of time?
On Tuesday, the gold market continued to rise, while the US stock and cryptocurrency markets remained relatively calm. But beneath this calm, Bitcoin is brewing with activity. According to BitPush data, although Bitcoin faced resistance between $68,000 and $70,000, the trading price still firmly stood above $67,672, with a volatility of less than 1% in 24 hours. This seemingly calm market actually hides secrets.
On Tuesday, the gold market continued to rise, while the US stock and cryptocurrency markets remained relatively calm. But beneath this calm, Bitcoin is brewing with activity. According to BitPush data, although Bitcoin faced resistance between $68,000 and $70,000, the trading price still firmly stood above $67,672, with a volatility of less than 1% in 24 hours. This seemingly calm market actually hides secrets.
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📈Bitcoin hits the $70,000 mark: Trump election odds and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut affect the contract and options markets! 🚀
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown significant upward momentum, with the price approaching the key resistance level of $70,000, which may herald an important market test for Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price dynamics are closely tied to Trump’s election odds, demonstrating the sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market to political events.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) has exceeded the $40 billion mark, hitting a record high, which is a big signal for speculation. Although some people are concerned that this means that the price fluctuations are all due to leveraged futures positions, the good news is that the funding rate remains neutral, indicating that the long positions are relatively balanced and not too crazy.
Let’s look at the macroeconomics. The Federal Reserve’s possible interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, and possible improvements in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment are all great benefits that support Bitcoin’s continued rise. If Bitcoin can break through $70,000, it may be as unstoppable as it was when it broke through $30,000 in October last year!
In the options market, traders are already eyeing call options expiring in November with strike prices above $80,000. That's because there are two big events next month: the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Everyone is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and the possibility is not small.
Data on Deribit also shows that the number of call option contracts expiring at the end of November is extremely large, while the number of put options is much smaller. This shows that the market is generally optimistic about the Bitcoin price in November. However, there are also traders hedging, and open interest in put options is increasing.
In short, the Bitcoin market is really busy right now, and everyone is preparing for the next big event. Let us wait and see if Bitcoin can break through the siege and reach new highs!
Viewpoint: Increase the spot position at low prices, go long on dips in the contract, and look at 80,000 for options in November.
#比特币冲70000 #美联储降息预期 #美国总统大选影响 #合约市场 #期权市场
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown significant upward momentum, with the price approaching the key resistance level of $70,000, which may herald an important market test for Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price dynamics are closely tied to Trump’s election odds, demonstrating the sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market to political events.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) has exceeded the $40 billion mark, hitting a record high, which is a big signal for speculation. Although some people are concerned that this means that the price fluctuations are all due to leveraged futures positions, the good news is that the funding rate remains neutral, indicating that the long positions are relatively balanced and not too crazy.
Let’s look at the macroeconomics. The Federal Reserve’s possible interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, and possible improvements in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment are all great benefits that support Bitcoin’s continued rise. If Bitcoin can break through $70,000, it may be as unstoppable as it was when it broke through $30,000 in October last year!
In the options market, traders are already eyeing call options expiring in November with strike prices above $80,000. That's because there are two big events next month: the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Everyone is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and the possibility is not small.
Data on Deribit also shows that the number of call option contracts expiring at the end of November is extremely large, while the number of put options is much smaller. This shows that the market is generally optimistic about the Bitcoin price in November. However, there are also traders hedging, and open interest in put options is increasing.
In short, the Bitcoin market is really busy right now, and everyone is preparing for the next big event. Let us wait and see if Bitcoin can break through the siege and reach new highs!
Viewpoint: Increase the spot position at low prices, go long on dips in the contract, and look at 80,000 for options in November.
#比特币冲70000 #美联储降息预期 #美国总统大选影响 #合约市场 #期权市场
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🕵️♂️ Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by the end of the year?
Many people are speculating whether Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. Does it sound exciting? But wait, the options market tells us that the probability of achieving this goal is less than 10%.
According to Deribit data, the probability of Bitcoin price breaking through $100,000 by the end of December is only 9.01%. However, the options market is like a bet on the future price of Bitcoin, and this bet tells us that it is generally believed that Bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $100,000 before the end of the year.
However, don't be too disappointed, because the market is always unpredictable. Some observers say that the probability of Bitcoin price rising to $82,000 is greater.
Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, said that according to the current options market, in the best case, the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate 22% in both directions by the end of the year, which means we can expect to see Bitcoin price rebound to more than $82,000.
And don't forget the US election on November 5! The election results may have far-reaching regulatory impacts on the digital asset industry and may also bring volatility to the market. Therefore, if the election results are unexpected or there is other big news in the market, it is possible that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of the year.
💭 So, what do you think? Do you think Bitcoin can reach $100,000 before the end of the year? Or, what factors do you think will affect the price of Bitcoin? Come to the comment section to leave your thoughts and discuss the future of Bitcoin together!
#比特币 #10万美元目标 #期权市场 #年底猜想
Many people are speculating whether Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. Does it sound exciting? But wait, the options market tells us that the probability of achieving this goal is less than 10%.
According to Deribit data, the probability of Bitcoin price breaking through $100,000 by the end of December is only 9.01%. However, the options market is like a bet on the future price of Bitcoin, and this bet tells us that it is generally believed that Bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $100,000 before the end of the year.
However, don't be too disappointed, because the market is always unpredictable. Some observers say that the probability of Bitcoin price rising to $82,000 is greater.
Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, said that according to the current options market, in the best case, the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate 22% in both directions by the end of the year, which means we can expect to see Bitcoin price rebound to more than $82,000.
And don't forget the US election on November 5! The election results may have far-reaching regulatory impacts on the digital asset industry and may also bring volatility to the market. Therefore, if the election results are unexpected or there is other big news in the market, it is possible that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of the year.
💭 So, what do you think? Do you think Bitcoin can reach $100,000 before the end of the year? Or, what factors do you think will affect the price of Bitcoin? Come to the comment section to leave your thoughts and discuss the future of Bitcoin together!
#比特币 #10万美元目标 #期权市场 #年底猜想
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💰Michael Saylor may increase his holdings of BTC again, and the cryptocurrency market is limited by the macro market
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information for the fifth consecutive week. He hinted that "there are too many blues on the SaylorTracker website", which may mean that the company has increased its holdings of Bitcoin again. Because according to previous patterns, MicroStrategy always increases its holdings of Bitcoin the day after the relevant news is released.
In addition, some analysts said that although Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the important psychological barriers of $100,000 and $4,000 respectively, the cryptocurrency market has been relatively independent recently, and the macro market has limited impact on it. Coupled with the overall rise of altcoins and strong market capital inflows, it shows the strength of bulls in the spot bull market.
Analysts also emphasized that the flow of funds in cryptocurrency ETFs and crypto-related US stocks is also worthy of attention. Because investors are paying close attention to the impact of large transactions on the market and the impact of interest rate changes on option pricing.
In the options market, block transactions and market interest rates have also become the focus of attention. At present, the implied volatility (IV) of major maturities is at a low level, and the short-term IV has also declined significantly. This may mean that market sentiment has eased from previous tension or uncertainty.
🗣️ Conclusion:
Michael Saylor's continuous actions and remarks seem to indicate that MicroStrategy may increase its holdings of Bitcoin again, which not only reflects the company's continued optimism about cryptocurrencies, but may also have a positive impact on market sentiment.
At the same time, despite frequent macroeconomic fluctuations, the cryptocurrency market has shown a certain degree of independence, especially in the strong rise of altcoins, where we have seen the firm confidence of market bulls.
In addition, changes in implied volatility in the options market remind us that market sentiment may be undergoing a subtle shift, and investors should remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics.
💬What do you think of MicroStrategy's possible increase in Bitcoin again? In the context of macroeconomic fluctuations, how long do you think the independence of the cryptocurrency market will last? Do you have any unique insights into changes in implied volatility in the options market?
#MicroStrateg #比特币增持 #加密货币市场 #宏观经济 #期权市场
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information for the fifth consecutive week. He hinted that "there are too many blues on the SaylorTracker website", which may mean that the company has increased its holdings of Bitcoin again. Because according to previous patterns, MicroStrategy always increases its holdings of Bitcoin the day after the relevant news is released.
In addition, some analysts said that although Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the important psychological barriers of $100,000 and $4,000 respectively, the cryptocurrency market has been relatively independent recently, and the macro market has limited impact on it. Coupled with the overall rise of altcoins and strong market capital inflows, it shows the strength of bulls in the spot bull market.
Analysts also emphasized that the flow of funds in cryptocurrency ETFs and crypto-related US stocks is also worthy of attention. Because investors are paying close attention to the impact of large transactions on the market and the impact of interest rate changes on option pricing.
In the options market, block transactions and market interest rates have also become the focus of attention. At present, the implied volatility (IV) of major maturities is at a low level, and the short-term IV has also declined significantly. This may mean that market sentiment has eased from previous tension or uncertainty.
🗣️ Conclusion:
Michael Saylor's continuous actions and remarks seem to indicate that MicroStrategy may increase its holdings of Bitcoin again, which not only reflects the company's continued optimism about cryptocurrencies, but may also have a positive impact on market sentiment.
At the same time, despite frequent macroeconomic fluctuations, the cryptocurrency market has shown a certain degree of independence, especially in the strong rise of altcoins, where we have seen the firm confidence of market bulls.
In addition, changes in implied volatility in the options market remind us that market sentiment may be undergoing a subtle shift, and investors should remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics.
💬What do you think of MicroStrategy's possible increase in Bitcoin again? In the context of macroeconomic fluctuations, how long do you think the independence of the cryptocurrency market will last? Do you have any unique insights into changes in implied volatility in the options market?
#MicroStrateg #比特币增持 #加密货币市场 #宏观经济 #期权市场
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#加密市场 Review and Outlook of This Week
As Christmas approaches, the crypto market has experienced some fluctuations this week, especially after the European and American exchanges closed on Wednesday, capital outflows were more common. At the same time, Ethereum faces greater pressure of capital outflows, and market sentiment tends to be risk-averse.
This week's major events:
- Monday: MicroStrategy (#MicroStrategy ) may be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index
- Tuesday: The Central Banks of Canada and Australia release December monetary policy minutes
- Thursday: The United States announces the number of initial jobless claims for the week
- Friday: #日本央行 announces a summary of the opinions of the meeting review committee
Market Outlook:
$BTC fell below the $100,000 mark, and $ETH fell below $3,300, because the bull market has not yet adjusted significantly and funds are tight during Christmas. In addition, Trump's policy changes may bring about a deleveraging trend and increase risk aversion.
On #期权市场 , about $12 billion of options expired this week, and large investors and market makers are adjusting their positions. It is expected that the volatility during the Christmas period will be smaller, and the market focus will be on the market trend after Trump takes office at the end of January. The crypto interest rate market remained relatively stable on #Bitfinex .
As Christmas approaches, the crypto market has experienced some fluctuations this week, especially after the European and American exchanges closed on Wednesday, capital outflows were more common. At the same time, Ethereum faces greater pressure of capital outflows, and market sentiment tends to be risk-averse.
This week's major events:
- Monday: MicroStrategy (#MicroStrategy ) may be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index
- Tuesday: The Central Banks of Canada and Australia release December monetary policy minutes
- Thursday: The United States announces the number of initial jobless claims for the week
- Friday: #日本央行 announces a summary of the opinions of the meeting review committee
Market Outlook:
$BTC fell below the $100,000 mark, and $ETH fell below $3,300, because the bull market has not yet adjusted significantly and funds are tight during Christmas. In addition, Trump's policy changes may bring about a deleveraging trend and increase risk aversion.
On #期权市场 , about $12 billion of options expired this week, and large investors and market makers are adjusting their positions. It is expected that the volatility during the Christmas period will be smaller, and the market focus will be on the market trend after Trump takes office at the end of January. The crypto interest rate market remained relatively stable on #Bitfinex .