$ETH The expected plunge has finally arrived. Let's not talk nonsense, just look at the picture!

The big short orders that have been held for three weeks have finally waited for the callback that our community has been looking forward to. Since the Ethereum ETF19b-4 was passed on May 23, it has been enjoying the funding fee. The square horse front gun also gave a warning that the non-agricultural will plummet, which helped some square fans avoid the waterfall on June 8, but I don't know if they avoided it this time. Careful friends will definitely find that it was actually revealed in the post I posted on June 8 (see Figure 3). I have successfully predicted and eaten all the waterfalls since I took orders in April. The description of June 8 in Figure 3 is only the square horse front gun, and there is no order record like Figure 1 and Figure 2. Isn't the reason obvious? Because the short orders in our community have not stopped profit, we can't let the freeloaders share our meat 😉. We also successfully ate a small rebound after June 8 (the order record of $BLZ posted earlier ranked second in the increase list for two consecutive days) Figure 4 is the chat record of active fans of Junyang in the community.

I dare say that there are probably not many people in the entire square who have successfully judged all the waterfalls since April. You can judge the value of it yourself. If you want to avoid waterfalls; want to discover coins on the list of rising prices; want to learn how professional traders think; or want to learn quantitative and AI, you can find me after reading my profile. Our community focuses on using the power of technology to gain the highest returns with a small amount of operations with the lowest risk.

$BTC

The new model has been used for a week and the effect is pretty good. I would like to take this opportunity to tell you that the quantitative model I made is not a grid robot. That kind of grid will explode if it should, and I do not recommend you to touch it. That is the lowest level of quantitative model. The more advanced ones may calculate some indicators and add some logic by themselves and then call it "quantitative". The so-called quantitative models you see on the market are basically of this type. The real money-making model will not let you know or use it, including my model. I will not tell any fans, just take brothers to buy. In the past, I always sent one order to everyone a day. This time, because the rebound trend was confirmed, I recommended three different sectors of coins to ensure that the gains of the rotation can be eaten. Remind the freeloaders, don't think about picking up leaks. Although theta will definitely be on the list of gains, you may not make money if you buy it.

Two days ago, a new brother reported that a blogger with thousands of fans was kicked out of the group for stealing information from me. After reflection, it may be because the fees are too high that real fans cannot come in, while those bloggers who harvest leeks can afford the fees to come in. Therefore, I decided to launch a one-week discount campaign. The discount will be based on the price of the pancake. 60% for 6w, 65% for 6w5. I hope to give fans who can make money with their heart a chance. Due to malicious reports, I cannot leave a comment. Please leave a message below the comments and I will reply.

The second round of voting in the French parliamentary elections ended, and the market was hit by an unexpected shock, but not the kind of surprise that was expected a week ago. The results showed that the left-wing coalition won the majority of seats, the centrists came in second, and the far right came in third, which was really unexpected for the market, and the market is still digesting this result and its impact. The far left promotes policies such as raising wages, which is seen as inflationary. In the past week or two, the market has not paid attention to them, but has focused all its attention on the far right. Therefore, the market sentiment has changed after the European trading session opened today. The euro depreciated slightly during the Asian session this morning. I think one of the effects of the far left winning is that it will pose a challenge to the European Central Bank to continue to cut interest rates, because if France wants to stimulate the economy, this is contrary to cutting interest rates. When the French bond market opened, the spread between German and French bonds widened, which will also cause trouble for the European Central Bank. In terms of the impact of this on gold and cryptocurrencies, we traded a small short position on the day last night based on the signals of the model, and there were other reasons besides the French election. After the European session opened today, the market sentiment changed rapidly, and we also opened a long position based on the model signals.

#美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #美联储何时降息？
$BTC $ETH $ELF

In the past few hours, two transactions occurred in several Mt. Gox wallets associated with the upcoming $9 billion Bitcoin compensation.

According to $ARKM data, the transactions involved three wallets previously associated with the defunct exchange. The largest transaction was $24 in Bitcoin.

The last time funds from Mt. Gox were transferred on a large scale, the funds were mainly concentrated in three wallets. At that time, there was $24 left in a wallet that was once used as a transit. In the past few hours, this small amount of Bitcoin was forwarded to another wallet, which then sent the funds to Bitbank's hot wallet. The rest of the Bitcoin was sent to a new wallet.

Bitbank is one of the exchanges supporting the Mt. Gox compensation. The compensation was not paid directly to Bitcoin holders, but the funds were sent to five exchanges, namely Kraken, Bitstamp, SBI VC Trade, Bitbank and Bitgo, through custodians. All of these exchanges said that once they receive the funds, they will make the funds available to customers within a maximum of 90 days.

However, since this small amount of Bitcoin was not sent from any major wallet to the exchange, it is unclear whether this was a test transaction to send a larger amount.

The custodian previously said that the compensation would be paid from the beginning of July. The exact date when the funds were sent to the exchange has not been made public.

Before the Mt. Gox funds were paid to creditors, the price of Bitcoin fell by more than $10,000 in the last month. It is currently trading at around $57,700, down 5% in the past 24 hours.

#Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 $BTC

Bitcoin investors are cashing out, while Ethereum holders continue to accumulate

Long-term Bitcoin holders have begun to sell their holdings that they accumulated during the bear market in January, when spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched in the U.S. However, long-term Ethereum holders are continuing to accumulate. The behavior of long-term holders is critical to understanding market cycles, as historical data shows that this profit-taking behavior usually starts in the early stages of a bull market and continues beyond the peak of the cycle. Due to Bitcoin's influence in the cryptocurrency space, it is often the most direct asset used to measure these cycles, as other digital assets tend to follow the leading trends of the flagship cryptocurrency. However, it is worth noting that long-term Ethereum holders are still accumulating new tokens at this time, which is in stark contrast to their behavior in the previous cycle, when they behaved very similarly to Bitcoin holders. This deviation from the traditional pattern may be due to the emergence of attractive income opportunities within the Ethereum ecosystem. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum offers a staking mechanism that allows holders to earn passive income on their holdings, and there are other income strategies within the decentralized finance space. Currently 27.5% of the total ETH supply is staked, and the potential approval of a spot-traded Ethereum ETF may be another factor influencing the behavior of long-term holders. These investors may be waiting for this regulatory milestone and a potential surge in prices to all-time highs before considering selling their ETH. Last month, the SEC approved applications from major stock exchanges to list spot Ether ETFs, paving the way for these products to begin trading later this year. This marks a major shift for the SEC, which has historically been cautious about cryptocurrencies and has been investigating whether to consider the second-largest cryptocurrency a commodity or security. It is worth noting that more than 83% of ETH holders are currently in profit, and the asset may see an uptick as more catalysts arrive. While more than 89% of BTC holders are currently in profit, investors holding the cryptocurrency appear to be more bearish.

$BTC $ETH $1000SATS

Today is Triple Witch Day in the US, which makes traders generally a little nervous. Triple Witching occurs four times a year, on the third Friday of each quarterly month. The reason for the triple witching is that the June stock index futures, options based on the June stock index futures, and June stock options, such as stock options of Women's University and Microsoft, expire. In addition to June, the other three times are March, September, and December. Quarterly options usually have the largest open interest, which means that a large number of options and futures will expire today. As for futures, most futures will be rolled over to the next month, so the expiration of options is more important in comparison. The word witching is a description of the fear of the market, imitating Halloween. This is where triple witching comes from. In the past, such days had very high volatility, but now it is better. So today, a large number of options will expire in the US market. For those who hold long options, they hope that the market will rise, and the options in their hands will be more valuable. But there are other forces that do not want the market to rise. They do not want to see the options become more out-of-the-money, so opposing forces emerge. In the past, this would lead to greater volatility, but it is not as serious now. But you also need to keep an eye on next week, where we may find that after thousands of options expire today, traders want to open new options positions because they have a lot of money on hand, and they will want to re-hold next week because they lost their previous exposure. There will be a lot of options activity, so the week after triple witching will have more volatility and market activity. You have to pay attention not only to today, but also to next week. For options in the crypto market, please refer to my previous article.

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Ethereum options data highlights bears’ plan to keep ETH price below $3,600

Ethereum’s recent consolidation around $3,500 has significantly reduced market expectations for monthly options expiration above $4,000. The total monthly ETH options set to expire on June 28 on Deribit reached $3.5 billion, followed by OKX with $286 million and Binance with $142 million. However, actual results are expected to be lower, as prices above $4,000 and below $3,000 currently appear unrealistic. The put/call ratio of 0.62 indicates an imbalance between $2.2 billion in call (buy) open interest and $1.3 billion in put (sell) options. However, if the price of Ethereum remains around $3,500 at 8:00 UTC on June 28, only $257 million of these puts will be relevant. This discrepancy occurs because if ETH trades above these levels at expiry, the right to sell Ethereum at $3,300 or $3,400 will become irrelevant.

Here are the four most likely scenarios based on current price trends. Availability of June 28 call and put options contracts varies based on settlement price. The balance of potential gains for each party is as follows:
Between $3,200 and $3,400: There are 13,000 calls versus 97,200 puts. The net result was in favor of the put (sell) option, with a profit or loss of $2.8 million.
Between $3,400 and $3,600: There are 43,900 calls versus 41,600 puts. The results for calls and puts were roughly balanced.
Between $3,600 and $3,800: There are 104,200 calls versus 24,400 puts. The net result was in favor of the call (buy) option, with a profit or loss of $300 million.
Between $3,800 and $3,900: There are 141,600 calls versus 9,600 puts. The call option advantage increases to $500 million.

This back-of-the-envelope calculation assumes that calls are used primarily for long bets, while puts are used for neutral to bearish positions. Barring an unexpected spot ETF approval before June 28, the outcome is expected to be a balance around $3,500, which should be viewed as a victory for the bears, especially considering that Ethereum was trading above $3,800 two weeks ago.

$ETH $BTC $ZRO

Bitcoin miners’ reserves depleted in high-volume OTC sales, what it means

There has been a significant change in the behavior of Bitcoin miners, with miner reserves falling to their lowest levels since 2010 and over-the-counter (OTC) sales activity rising significantly. At the beginning of the year, miner reserves were around 1.87 million BTC, but have now dropped to around 1.81 million BTC, a level not seen since 2010. This decline in reserves is noteworthy as it indicates that miners are more inclined to sell their holdings. Normally, this would lead to increased supply on the market and potential price depreciation, but that's not the case this year. Although miners are holding fewer BTC, the value of these reserves remains high, as prices have increased by almost 150% since October last year, bringing the total dollar value of miners’ holdings to near an all-time high at over $130 billion. Over-the-counter (OTC) sales by Bitcoin miners have reached daily peaks since March.

This miner activity occurs against the backdrop of significant price fluctuations in the market. The price of BTC has fallen by nearly 7% in the past day, from a high of $66,436 to approximately $65,269. This decline is consistent with the recent general trend of volatility in the crypto market. BTC may not see new highs until the current phase of miner capitulation and market fatigue resolves, which historically has typically preceded a bull run. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy, one of the major corporate backers of BTC, continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in this market environment. The company conducted its most recent capital raising by selling $800 million in convertible notes and has accumulated 11,931 Bitcoins. The average purchase price for this purchase was $65,883 per Bitcoin, bringing MicroStrategy’s total holdings to 226,331 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $8.33 billion, and an average purchase price of $36,798 per Bitcoin.

$BTC $ETH $LISTA

Cryptocurrency is rising sharply today, how should we trade it? Should we follow or go against it?

You have observed that the crypto market rebounded today, but in fact silver rose even more sharply. Looking back over the past two or three months, you will find that this trend is not uncommon. This is the fifth time. I must say that this trend is very suspicious at this stage, because other markets have basically not changed. The stock market is stable, the bond market is also stable, and the foreign exchange market is the same. Most markets are waiting for the US stock market to open, only silver is rising, and it has also pulled gold and cryptocurrencies to rise with it. As I said just now, this trend has occurred four times, and all ended in a big drop, and the bulls were hurt badly. The reason why the market fell is that there is no substantial information to support the rise, so we must be very careful. Don't rush to go long on silver, thinking that the bull market is coming. I think the best trading strategy at the moment, and I also said this to my internal members today, is not to trade silver. Silver has obviously been squeezed. When we see silver starting to rise, we should take advantage of the trend to go long on gold and cryptocurrencies, and make sure we can quickly exit when necessary. Similarly, if silver falls, short gold and cryptocurrencies. Because silver is the main driver right now, it has the potential to collapse quickly. So it is a good choice to trade cryptocurrencies now. If the silver rally continues, I hope to see a continuation in the US market and keep the gains for two or three consecutive days before I can start to believe that the bull market is coming.

$BTC $FET $ETH

Reasons why ETH price failed to rise in the face of good news

ETH has been under pressure since June 7, when it lost the $3,800 support level. Despite a series of positive developments, its price remained below $3,600 on June 19.

Despite ETH's regulatory approval, risks in the Ethereum ecosystem remain. On June 18, Ethereum ecosystem developer Consensys announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded its investigation into whether Ethereum can be considered a security and the company's role in ETH sales. Consensys has filed legal action against the SEC after receiving a Wells notice in April, which warned that its MetaMask wallet may have violated securities laws.

Ethereum's decline coincides with the rejection of leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin near $72,000 on June 7. This occurred at a time when investors' concerns about the fiscal health of the United States increased, coupled with high interest rates and deteriorating economic indicators such as rising wages and unemployment. In May, the average hourly wage in the United States rose 0.4% from the previous month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in April. Although worsening macroeconomic conditions could be bullish for cryptocurrencies in the medium to long term, history shows that investors tend to move out of risky assets when recession risks loom. The decline in the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield from 4.94% to 4.71% on May 30 suggests that investors are actively buying these fixed-income instruments. As long as the macroeconomic environment remains stable and cryptocurrencies appear reasonably priced, their long-term bullish trend should continue. A macro shock or a sharp correction in the S&P 500 would have a negative impact on cryptocurrencies in the short to medium term. Therefore, the current lack of interest in Ethereum may reflect investors’ high concerns about a potential recession. In addition to the recent Consensys development, regulatory news on ETH has been generally positive. The SEC Chairman confirmed that a U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be launched within three months. The recent four consecutive days of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have raised concerns about whether Ethereum instruments will attract significant inflows when they are launched. Investors are concerned that when Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust ETHE is converted into an ETF, it may suffer from similar problems as GBTC, which suffered from high fees.

$ETH $FET $ENS

I just asked WE coach about the rumors about Uzi, but he ignored me. It seems that this is a done deal.

$W $ETH $UNI

Global Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) outperformed their Bitcoin counterparts in the week ahead of the upcoming U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Ethereum ETPs saw net inflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling 16,911 ETH. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of 12,523 BTC — the third worst week to date, driven primarily by net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Global Ethereum ETPs have recorded net inflows of 86,472 ETH, worth about $300 million, over the past four weeks. This echoes the $1.25 billion inflows that Bitcoin ETPs saw ahead of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch in November 2023. This is a sign that inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs will reach about 25% of U.S. spot BTC flows.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved Form 19b-4 for eight spot Ethereum ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity on May 23. However, issuers still need to make their S-1 registration statements effective before they can start trading, a process that could take several weeks. Last week, the SEC chairman estimated that S-1 approval for spot Ethereum ETFs could happen sometime in late summer this year. Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric moved up their spot Ethereum ETF listing date forecast to July 2.

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