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@10xResearch
Digital Asset Research for Traders and Institutions / Insightful, Timely, and Actionable / www.10xResearch.co
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This ONE Indicator Will Decide If #Bitcoin Will Make New All-Time Highs -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/one-indicator-will-decide-bitcoin-will-make-new-alltime-highs
#BTC #enaethena #ETH #pepecoin🐸
#BTC #enaethena #ETH #pepecoin🐸
#Bitcoin New All Time Highs Coming? But When To Sell #Ethereum? https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-new-time-highs-coming-sell-ethereum
#BTC #ETH
#BTC #ETH
90%+ Probability An #Ethereum ETF Approval Today, Sell The News? https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/90-probability-ethereum-etf-approval-today-sell-news
If THIS Happens by May 28, It Will Be MUCH BIGGER Than an #Ethereum ETF!
👇1-12) 10x Research’s primary analysis generally focuses on our understanding that crypto is not random. Events, data points, and announcements can be influential drivers of prices. It all started with a curious development on May 8, 2024. #Grayscale withdrew their 19b-4 filing for an Ethereum futures ETF. If approved, which was likely as Ethereum futures ETF approved and listed, it might have paved the way for Grayscale to file a lawsuit against the SEC, just as they did in 2023.
👇2-12) But that Grayscale would sue the #SEC and lose again billions of dollars in outflows from their #ETH ETN was unlikely.
👇3-12) https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/happens-may-28-will-much-bigger-ethereum-etf
#BTC #ETH
👇1-12) 10x Research’s primary analysis generally focuses on our understanding that crypto is not random. Events, data points, and announcements can be influential drivers of prices. It all started with a curious development on May 8, 2024. #Grayscale withdrew their 19b-4 filing for an Ethereum futures ETF. If approved, which was likely as Ethereum futures ETF approved and listed, it might have paved the way for Grayscale to file a lawsuit against the SEC, just as they did in 2023.
👇2-12) But that Grayscale would sue the #SEC and lose again billions of dollars in outflows from their #ETH ETN was unlikely.
👇3-12) https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/happens-may-28-will-much-bigger-ethereum-etf
#BTC #ETH
#Bitcoin: Multiple BUY Signals Activated, Don't Miss Out -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-multiple-buy-signals-activated-dont-miss
👇1-11) We have issued several timely (bullish) reports in the last few days. On May 18, we published ‘A new trading alert for Bitcoin ETFs has been triggered,’ on May 20, we published ‘Our Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index Turns Bullish.’ FOMO will be huge as many have stepped away from the market (here). Others are quietly moving billions into crypto, as our data shows below. In crypto, you need to be fast; this is why we run models to alert us when rockets launch.
👇2-11) We became increasingly constructive on Bitcoin last week and reiterated this view in our strategy subscribers’ webinar on May 16 (the replay link is at the bottom of this report, which we have made available for all subscribers). In it, we emphasized that the inflation risk that caused the bigger corrections in mid-March and mid-April had been removed from the market. This would set up the market for a breakout, ending the consolidation period.
👇3-11) On Saturday, May 18, we also sent out a Trading Signal alert for the Bitcoin ETFs (here), which signaled that there were potentially +17% (median) or +20% (average) returns to be made over the next month.
👇4-11) This signal could fail, but Bitcoin is on the right path. We have set up a site (here) for crypto-equity-related signals as we have more signals around GBTC and MicroStrategy today (see below).
Read the full report - link above
#BTC #ETH #ENA #GBTC #MSTR
👇1-11) We have issued several timely (bullish) reports in the last few days. On May 18, we published ‘A new trading alert for Bitcoin ETFs has been triggered,’ on May 20, we published ‘Our Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index Turns Bullish.’ FOMO will be huge as many have stepped away from the market (here). Others are quietly moving billions into crypto, as our data shows below. In crypto, you need to be fast; this is why we run models to alert us when rockets launch.
👇2-11) We became increasingly constructive on Bitcoin last week and reiterated this view in our strategy subscribers’ webinar on May 16 (the replay link is at the bottom of this report, which we have made available for all subscribers). In it, we emphasized that the inflation risk that caused the bigger corrections in mid-March and mid-April had been removed from the market. This would set up the market for a breakout, ending the consolidation period.
👇3-11) On Saturday, May 18, we also sent out a Trading Signal alert for the Bitcoin ETFs (here), which signaled that there were potentially +17% (median) or +20% (average) returns to be made over the next month.
👇4-11) This signal could fail, but Bitcoin is on the right path. We have set up a site (here) for crypto-equity-related signals as we have more signals around GBTC and MicroStrategy today (see below).
Read the full report - link above
#BTC #ETH #ENA #GBTC #MSTR
#Bitcoin: Monster Squeeze Coming ? We think so - here is why: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/new-trading-alert-bitcoin-etfs-triggered
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
YOU Can Still Make Serious Money in #Bitcoin This Year – But YOU Need To Have a Plan
1-10) We have been very strategic with our views. We set ambitious targets based on our cycle and macro analysis (correctly predicting the Bitcoin price at halving 15 months in advance). Still, we became conservative when we noticed dark clouds on the horizon (August 2023, January 2024, and April 2024). We called all three consolidation periods during the last year.
2-10) Based on our analysis, one big rally is still left this year. But to take advantage of it, we must time it perfectly and unfold things according to our plan. The last few weeks have shown that buy-and-hold (hodl) is no longer working in this market. Traders need to set realistic expectations and have a plan.
3-10) Hence, we need to identify potential turning points when Bitcoin moves from a bull market to a period of consolidation—a time when we want minimal exposure.
Read the full note:
https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/can-still-make-serious-money-bitcoin-year-need-plan
#BTC
1-10) We have been very strategic with our views. We set ambitious targets based on our cycle and macro analysis (correctly predicting the Bitcoin price at halving 15 months in advance). Still, we became conservative when we noticed dark clouds on the horizon (August 2023, January 2024, and April 2024). We called all three consolidation periods during the last year.
2-10) Based on our analysis, one big rally is still left this year. But to take advantage of it, we must time it perfectly and unfold things according to our plan. The last few weeks have shown that buy-and-hold (hodl) is no longer working in this market. Traders need to set realistic expectations and have a plan.
3-10) Hence, we need to identify potential turning points when Bitcoin moves from a bull market to a period of consolidation—a time when we want minimal exposure.
Read the full note:
https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/can-still-make-serious-money-bitcoin-year-need-plan
#BTC
What This Week's Inflation Data Means for Your #Bitcoins
👇1-10) Traders expect a +/-6% move for Bitcoin by the end of this week. This is, of course, on the back of tonight’s #PPI and, more importantly, tomorrow’s #CPI US #inflation data print. However, with implied volatility priced at 52.8% vs. 50.8% for other maturities, we can hardly say that a big move in BTC on the back of these inflation prints is priced in. Implied volatility is not expensive, as realized volatility traded slightly below 50%.
👇2-10) Technically, Bitcoin is still pressing onto the 60,800 to 61,400 support level. If this is broken, we would expect lower prices. The average entry price for #Bitcoin ETF holdings is around 57,000, so any break below 60,000 will likely cause an adrenaline spike for those investors. It is no coincidence that BTC inflows slowed once Bitcoin failed to rally.
👇3-10) Read the full analysis: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/weeks-inflation-data-means-bitcoins
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC #cpi
👇1-10) Traders expect a +/-6% move for Bitcoin by the end of this week. This is, of course, on the back of tonight’s #PPI and, more importantly, tomorrow’s #CPI US #inflation data print. However, with implied volatility priced at 52.8% vs. 50.8% for other maturities, we can hardly say that a big move in BTC on the back of these inflation prints is priced in. Implied volatility is not expensive, as realized volatility traded slightly below 50%.
👇2-10) Technically, Bitcoin is still pressing onto the 60,800 to 61,400 support level. If this is broken, we would expect lower prices. The average entry price for #Bitcoin ETF holdings is around 57,000, so any break below 60,000 will likely cause an adrenaline spike for those investors. It is no coincidence that BTC inflows slowed once Bitcoin failed to rally.
👇3-10) Read the full analysis: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/weeks-inflation-data-means-bitcoins
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC #cpi
Will #Grayscale Sue the #SEC and Flip the #Crypto Market? An Upside Catalyst for #Ethereum?
👇1-11) Two months ago, we presented our crypto market structure analysis, which indicated that consolidation was ahead, with downside pressure for Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies). Although many claimed that the post-halving period would be bullish, the #Bitcoin ETFs were (indefinitely) buying ten times the mining supply, and Bitcoin prices could only go up. Things are turning out differently— precisely as we expected. It’s tough to be bearish, but occasionally, this is the right call to make, and we do not shy away from these tough calls.
👇2-11) Until the Bitcoin halving on April 20, we had seen approximately $42bn of (liquidity) inflows into crypto markets this year (see chart below). Since the halving, we have seen nearly zero growth in #stablecoin inflows, and Bitcoin futures leverage has been dramatically reduced. Contrary to the bullish tweets about a post-halving rally, crypto users have voted with their money by withdrawing or pausing inflows.
👇3-11) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/will-grayscale-sue-sec-flip-crypto-market-upside-catalyst-ethereum
#BTC #ETH #ENA
👇1-11) Two months ago, we presented our crypto market structure analysis, which indicated that consolidation was ahead, with downside pressure for Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies). Although many claimed that the post-halving period would be bullish, the #Bitcoin ETFs were (indefinitely) buying ten times the mining supply, and Bitcoin prices could only go up. Things are turning out differently— precisely as we expected. It’s tough to be bearish, but occasionally, this is the right call to make, and we do not shy away from these tough calls.
👇2-11) Until the Bitcoin halving on April 20, we had seen approximately $42bn of (liquidity) inflows into crypto markets this year (see chart below). Since the halving, we have seen nearly zero growth in #stablecoin inflows, and Bitcoin futures leverage has been dramatically reduced. Contrary to the bullish tweets about a post-halving rally, crypto users have voted with their money by withdrawing or pausing inflows.
👇3-11) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/will-grayscale-sue-sec-flip-crypto-market-upside-catalyst-ethereum
#BTC #ETH #ENA
#Ethereum : The Bearish Case (report from April 2 when ETH traded at $3,500 - report available on our website)- since then we have been bearish and ETH is down -20%… and published several additional bearish ETH reports .. learn where ETH is going next …
https://10xresearch.co
#ETH #ENA
https://10xresearch.co
#ETH #ENA
$1,300,000 per #Bitcoin? – Or Have we already reached this cycle’s HIGH?
Read more here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/1300000-per-bitcoin-already-reached-cycles-high
#BTC
Read more here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/1300000-per-bitcoin-already-reached-cycles-high
#BTC
Beware of Token Unlocks. Will Venture Capital Funds cut this Altcoin cycle short?
👇1-12) The current cryptocurrency bull market cycle might be shorter than previous ones and unlikely to culminate in a broad altcoin rally. Are the crypto venture capital funds to blame?
👇2-12) Despite the high daily trading volumes of over $100 billion and the rapid development and updates in crypto projects, significant constraints exist on the industry's growth potential.
👇3-12) Real-time on-chain analytics keep crypto traders engaged, starkly contrasting traditional stock investors who wait for quarterly earnings. However, the crypto market faces challenges that could limit the breadth and duration of the Bull Run. A rapid succession of nearly $2 billion of token unlocks during the next ten weeks could lower the market for altcoins.
👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/beware-token-unlocks-will-venture-capital-funds-cut-altcoin-cycle-short
#Altcoinseason2024 #ETH #Enabullrun #SUI
👇1-12) The current cryptocurrency bull market cycle might be shorter than previous ones and unlikely to culminate in a broad altcoin rally. Are the crypto venture capital funds to blame?
👇2-12) Despite the high daily trading volumes of over $100 billion and the rapid development and updates in crypto projects, significant constraints exist on the industry's growth potential.
👇3-12) Real-time on-chain analytics keep crypto traders engaged, starkly contrasting traditional stock investors who wait for quarterly earnings. However, the crypto market faces challenges that could limit the breadth and duration of the Bull Run. A rapid succession of nearly $2 billion of token unlocks during the next ten weeks could lower the market for altcoins.
👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/beware-token-unlocks-will-venture-capital-funds-cut-altcoin-cycle-short
#Altcoinseason2024 #ETH #Enabullrun #SUI
MORE than 90 per cent of stablecoin transaction volumes are not coming from genuine users, according to a new metric co-developed by Visa.
Out of about US$2.2 trillion in total transactions in April, just US$149 billion originated from “organic payments activity”.
Data provider Glassnode has estimated that the record US$3 trillion of total market circulation assigned to digital tokens at the peak of the 2021 bull market was actually closer to US$875 billion.
With stablecoins, transactions can often be double-counted depending on the platform users are transferring funds to.
For example, converting US$100 of Circle Internet Financial’s USDC to PayPal’s PYUSD on the decentralised exchange Uniswap would result in US$200 of total stablecoin volume being recorded on-chain.
#USDC #USDTfree #UniSwap #PYTHUSDT
Out of about US$2.2 trillion in total transactions in April, just US$149 billion originated from “organic payments activity”.
Data provider Glassnode has estimated that the record US$3 trillion of total market circulation assigned to digital tokens at the peak of the 2021 bull market was actually closer to US$875 billion.
With stablecoins, transactions can often be double-counted depending on the platform users are transferring funds to.
For example, converting US$100 of Circle Internet Financial’s USDC to PayPal’s PYUSD on the decentralised exchange Uniswap would result in US$200 of total stablecoin volume being recorded on-chain.
#USDC #USDTfree #UniSwap #PYTHUSDT
What’s going on with #Ethereum? Should we even care?
👇1-14) Ethereum remains this cycle’s basket case. Surprisingly, BTC and ETH remain highly correlated, with an R-square of 95%. Ethereum’s weak fundamentals are becoming a roadblock for Bitcoin as they prevent broad fiat inflow into the crypto ecosystem.
👇2-14) During the last 2020/2021 cycle, ETH was the driver as Ethereum was supposed to replace the legacy banking system. NFT minting opened new areas of crypto adoption that could have expanded into various personalized documents on the blockchain, driving broad ‘wallet’ adoption. However, Ethereum developers did not react quickly enough.
👇3-14) Read the full note here: https://post.10xresearch.co/p/whats-going-on-with-ethereum-should
#ETH
👇1-14) Ethereum remains this cycle’s basket case. Surprisingly, BTC and ETH remain highly correlated, with an R-square of 95%. Ethereum’s weak fundamentals are becoming a roadblock for Bitcoin as they prevent broad fiat inflow into the crypto ecosystem.
👇2-14) During the last 2020/2021 cycle, ETH was the driver as Ethereum was supposed to replace the legacy banking system. NFT minting opened new areas of crypto adoption that could have expanded into various personalized documents on the blockchain, driving broad ‘wallet’ adoption. However, Ethereum developers did not react quickly enough.
👇3-14) Read the full note here: https://post.10xresearch.co/p/whats-going-on-with-ethereum-should
#ETH
#Bitcoin Surges Again: Traders Asking If This Bull Market Can Last?
👇1-12) During our tenure as portfolio managers at Millennium, one of the world's premier hedge funds renowned for its stellar risk-adjusted returns and stringent risk management, we often heard invaluable advice: “The market opens every day." Despite the allure of quick gains (FOMO), we remain committed to rigorous risk management and thorough analysis, ensuring opportunities are always ahead without compromising our standards.
👇2-12) Bitcoin is roughly back to the same level (64,000) when we emphasized that prices could fall back to 52,000/55,000 a week ago. In that report (on April 25), we showed how Bitcoin tends to sell off on higher inflation data BUT rallied after the FOMC meeting on March 20 – until another higher inflation data point was released. Bitcoin did decline but narrowly missed our entry buy zone by a tiny 3% margin (actual low 56,500). The decline from 68,300 when we emphasized cutting longs was -17%.
👇3-12) Identifying the right entry point is key in achieving a high-risk-adjusted return, especially in the absence of a larger bull market where prices can surge 2-5x. When the 60,000 level was breached, the nearest technical support was the 52,000/55,000 area. Interestingly, the Bitcoin rebound wasn't triggered by the FOMC meeting but by a well-timed comment from Blackrock about the (apparent) growing interest of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds in Bitcoin ETFs, which then accelerated on weaker employment data on May 3.
👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-surges-traders-asking-bull-market-can-last
#BTC
👇1-12) During our tenure as portfolio managers at Millennium, one of the world's premier hedge funds renowned for its stellar risk-adjusted returns and stringent risk management, we often heard invaluable advice: “The market opens every day." Despite the allure of quick gains (FOMO), we remain committed to rigorous risk management and thorough analysis, ensuring opportunities are always ahead without compromising our standards.
👇2-12) Bitcoin is roughly back to the same level (64,000) when we emphasized that prices could fall back to 52,000/55,000 a week ago. In that report (on April 25), we showed how Bitcoin tends to sell off on higher inflation data BUT rallied after the FOMC meeting on March 20 – until another higher inflation data point was released. Bitcoin did decline but narrowly missed our entry buy zone by a tiny 3% margin (actual low 56,500). The decline from 68,300 when we emphasized cutting longs was -17%.
👇3-12) Identifying the right entry point is key in achieving a high-risk-adjusted return, especially in the absence of a larger bull market where prices can surge 2-5x. When the 60,000 level was breached, the nearest technical support was the 52,000/55,000 area. Interestingly, the Bitcoin rebound wasn't triggered by the FOMC meeting but by a well-timed comment from Blackrock about the (apparent) growing interest of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds in Bitcoin ETFs, which then accelerated on weaker employment data on May 3.
👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-surges-traders-asking-bull-market-can-last
#BTC
Vinnik's BTC-e linked to the Mt. Gox hack pleaded guilty
During the Mt. Gox hack, which culminated in 2014, approximately 850,000 bitcoins were lost.
On May 3, 2024, Alexander Vinnik pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering in connection with his role in managing the cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e from 2011 to 2017. During its operation, BTC-e facilitated over $9 billion in transactions and served more than one million users globally.
The platform was involved in laundering the proceeds from various criminal activities, including computer intrusions, hacking incidents, ransomware attacks, identity theft schemes, operations by corrupt public officials, and narcotics distribution networks. Vinnik, who deliberately designed BTC-e to support these illegal activities, was implicated in causing financial losses amounting to at least $121 million.
Vinnik now faces the potential of a 20-year prison sentence at his forthcoming sentencing in the U.S. Previously, in 2020, he was convicted on money laundering charges in France and received a five-year prison term.
During the Mt. Gox hack, which culminated in 2014, approximately 850,000 bitcoins were lost.
On May 3, 2024, Alexander Vinnik pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering in connection with his role in managing the cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e from 2011 to 2017. During its operation, BTC-e facilitated over $9 billion in transactions and served more than one million users globally.
The platform was involved in laundering the proceeds from various criminal activities, including computer intrusions, hacking incidents, ransomware attacks, identity theft schemes, operations by corrupt public officials, and narcotics distribution networks. Vinnik, who deliberately designed BTC-e to support these illegal activities, was implicated in causing financial losses amounting to at least $121 million.
Vinnik now faces the potential of a 20-year prison sentence at his forthcoming sentencing in the U.S. Previously, in 2020, he was convicted on money laundering charges in France and received a five-year prison term.
Fake Dip? The MOST important #Bitcoin Chart Traders Are Watching
👇1-12) Beware of fake dips when triangles break. Bitcoin’s relative strength has retraced back to 40%, which has been associated with rally attempts on three occasions since early 2023. We are pointing out a new ‘line in the sand’ where we might change our view. The previous ‘line in the sand’ where we turned bearish was 68,300.
👇2-12) Although we had been (correctly) bearish in January 2024 (most will remember that), we turned bullish on January 26. The last sentence of our January 26 report stated, “We would use any further dip to start buying again.” Our view was also covered in CoinDesk (here).
👇3-12) We used the term new bull market as early as mid-January 2023 when lower inflation turbocharged the rebound. Hence, we focused on when a) inflation turned unexpectedly higher and b) the Fed turned less dovish. As we pointed out during the last few weeks, the situation might be very different, with severe consequences for Bitcoin - that’s why our analysis below might be of the utmost importance.
👇4-12) Read the full report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/fake-dip-important-bitcoin-chart-traders-watching
#BTC
👇1-12) Beware of fake dips when triangles break. Bitcoin’s relative strength has retraced back to 40%, which has been associated with rally attempts on three occasions since early 2023. We are pointing out a new ‘line in the sand’ where we might change our view. The previous ‘line in the sand’ where we turned bearish was 68,300.
👇2-12) Although we had been (correctly) bearish in January 2024 (most will remember that), we turned bullish on January 26. The last sentence of our January 26 report stated, “We would use any further dip to start buying again.” Our view was also covered in CoinDesk (here).
👇3-12) We used the term new bull market as early as mid-January 2023 when lower inflation turbocharged the rebound. Hence, we focused on when a) inflation turned unexpectedly higher and b) the Fed turned less dovish. As we pointed out during the last few weeks, the situation might be very different, with severe consequences for Bitcoin - that’s why our analysis below might be of the utmost importance.
👇4-12) Read the full report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/fake-dip-important-bitcoin-chart-traders-watching
#BTC
Is This #Bitcoin Indicator Predicting A Crash???
👇1-11) We have been expecting a severe Bitcoin correction, and many of our @10x_Research subscribers either closed out their longs at 68,300 or some even went short. The signs were all there that the Bitcoin bull market was losing momentum. Now everybody is asking how steep the fall will be.
👇2-11) The average Bitcoin ETF buyer is now underwater. Many institutional investors will struggle to justify allocating more capital to those ETFs without an immediate upside catalyst, such as the halving. Despite brand names such as @BlackRock leading the ETF field, many portfolio managers likely had an uphill battle when they asked for Bitcoin ETF risk limits.
👇3-11) The indicator below could predict much lower Bitcoin prices, we explain why in the report (hopefully this indicator is wrong...) -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-indicator-predicting-crash
#BTC
👇1-11) We have been expecting a severe Bitcoin correction, and many of our @10x_Research subscribers either closed out their longs at 68,300 or some even went short. The signs were all there that the Bitcoin bull market was losing momentum. Now everybody is asking how steep the fall will be.
👇2-11) The average Bitcoin ETF buyer is now underwater. Many institutional investors will struggle to justify allocating more capital to those ETFs without an immediate upside catalyst, such as the halving. Despite brand names such as @BlackRock leading the ETF field, many portfolio managers likely had an uphill battle when they asked for Bitcoin ETF risk limits.
👇3-11) The indicator below could predict much lower Bitcoin prices, we explain why in the report (hopefully this indicator is wrong...) -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-indicator-predicting-crash
#BTC
#Bitcoin -> As we wrote yesterday, "We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely lower prices to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 top - hence our price target of $52,000/$55,000 during the last three weeks. There might also be a period of consolidation instead of a snapback rally - stay tuned." -> Why we turned bearish on April 18: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/hidden-factor-send-bitcoin-plummeting-5200055000
#BTC
#BTC
