#BTCEUR remains in bull flag since the March ATH, with a quick hit-n-reverse ~45k #EUR which is well telegraphed before July 24Q2 review. While the path toward that Aug. low is more complexe then I initially expected, it exactly fits the corrective characteristics of a 4th #Elliottwave labeled in yellow.
To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.
For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.
