Bitcoin trend prediction
After three expected market trends were reviewed on Monday this week, the current trend of BTC has changed.
 
First, let's review the three expected trends of BTC in the future market that were reviewed on Monday this week. Trend one is that it will directly hit a new high, trend two is that the rebound will never stand above 65,000, and continue to break below 58,000, and trend three is that the price has a probability of approaching a new high, but it cannot effectively break through, and adjusts in a horizontal oscillation above 60,000.
 
Trends 1 and 2 will appear in Q3. The continuity of supply and the explosiveness of demand need to be demonstrated in the first half of Q3. 65,000 is the dividing line. The current rebound height determines everything. If there is still a weak rebound in early July (the rebound does not exceed 65,000), the probability of trend 2 will increase greatly.

#ETF Demand continued to pick up, with another $120 million flowing in yesterday. However, #美股 the weekend's gains failed to continue after the opening last night, and US investors did not make a clear statement when they returned on Monday.
Due to the significant increase in Binance's holdings during the rise, the current market is more like being manipulated by the traditional main players in the currency circle. Non-farm payroll data will be released this week, which will have a greater impact on market sentiment. Whether bulls can continue the rally will ultimately need to be double verified by U.S. trading time and employment data.

There will be large and small non-farm data released this week. The results may affect the subsequent market reaction to expectations of interest rate cuts and are worthy of attention.
7/1 (Monday) US June ISM Manufacturing PMI

July 2 (Tuesday)
1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the Central Bank Forum held by the ECB

July 3 (Wednesday)
1. U.S. ADP employment in June
2. Number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week

July 4 (Thursday)
1. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting
2. The UK holds a general election
3. ECB releases minutes of June monetary policy meeting

After the price of BTC touched below 60,000 last Monday, it did not continue to fall. On June 25, it closed with a positive line with volume, confirming that the daily downward trend starting from 71,000 has temporarily ended.

Last Friday was the delivery date for Q2 2024, with the maximum price of 57,000. Because BTC had temporarily stopped falling last Tuesday, the price could only move closer to the pain point above 60,000 before delivery, and the pain point was around 62,000. The final delivery price last Friday was above 61,000, which was very consistent with the trend expected in the analysis last Monday: before delivery, the BTC price fluctuated below 65,000 and was delivered close to the pain point.

last night

Under the circumstances of unexpected favorable conditions, it can be said that the time and place are right. If

If it can convey a dovish signal, the market is probably ready to gamble.

The possibility of BTC breaking the previous high is just around the corner. But the reality is that the Fed's dot plot and Powell's speech are neutral and hawkish. The dot plot conveys the number of interest rate cuts this year, from three 75 basis points in the March meeting to one 25 basis point now. Powell still had an ambiguous attitude when answering reporters' questions, maintaining his usual style of "playing Tai Chi".The Fed needs to balance economic growth, inflation and employment when making decisions. At present, the Fed is not too worried about economic growth, although in recent months

US Bitcoin spot #ETF had a net inflow of $887 million yesterday, the second highest level in history. Asset management scale exceeded $60 billion, a record high. BTC price broke through 71k again, and the second round of ETF positions began to take effect as scheduled. Due to the liquidity relaxation brought about by the slowdown of balance sheet reduction in June, the unprecedented inflow channels of traditional global capital are expected to help push BTC prices to break through resistance and rise.

The prices of all risk assets are essentially betting on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. If you want to cut interest rates, you must have data such as employment and CPI, especially data results that exceed expectations. Since the release of CPI and PCE, the current situation is that interest rates will be cut once in September and November, and the focus of the game is on the number of interest rate cuts. However, there is still no speculation about the early month of interest rate cuts. Although the probability of inflation being less than 2% or the unemployment rate being greater than 4% is currently very low, once it happens, the sentiment of early interest rate cuts will be ignited.

BTC maintained a week of horizontal fluctuations last week, with the fluctuation range maintained above 67,000 and below 70,000 for the whole week, and finally settled at around 68,000. The range of BTC price movement last week coincided with the resistance range of options for May delivery (the information given by the distribution of options positions last week is that the price has a probability of fluctuating between 65,000 and 70,000), and the option sellers won in May.

June is a critical month for bulls. First of all, from the chart and BTC ETF data, we should know that the bull trend is about consistency. Since the price can reach above 70,000 and BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for two weeks, it shows that there is a basis for forming a bull trend at the daily level and above. Although the net inflow amount of BTC ETF showed signs of slowing down last week, it is certain that the spot supply caused by BTC ETF does not exist now.

Q2 is coming to an end. Looking back from April to now, the entire US stock market, including cryptocurrencies, has been in a period of very tight liquidity. The money that flowed into the reverse repurchase account (RRP) during the mask period is no longer enough to support the liquidity of the US dollar. Yellen barely maintained the scale of bank reserves through excessive short-term debt issuance, trying not to hurt the mother of liquidity. In June, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have two important cards to play, one is to slow down the reduction of the balance sheet, and the other is to sell long-term bonds. It can be said that the most difficult money shortage this year is about to pass. Starting from June and including Q3, the entire US dollar liquidity will develop in a positive direction.

These two days,

The transfer of coins has been hyped by many people, and the similar views are nothing more than "these bitcoins are used to crash the market, and bitcoin plummets". Some so-called media like to spread the FUD sentiment of selling to the uninformed to attract attention. The first thing to be clear is that Mt.Gox's transfer of coins the day before yesterday was not a black swan event. As early as the "Notice of Confirmation of Regeneration Plan" in 2021, Mt.Gox had already announced the final compensation procedures and time to creditors. Everything was just executed according to the established plan, and the market had fully expected it.

The competition between the two major parties in the United States for cryptocurrency voters has entered a white-hot stage. During his tenure, Biden has successively passed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, trying to prove that he is also a "cryptocurrency-friendly president" like Trump.
In addition, the FIT21 bill passed by the House of Representatives last week provides a solid basis for the arrival of the cottage season. From the vote type, it can be seen that the bill is mainly promoted by the Republican Party, and it is only a matter of time before it is passed. Once the bill is approved by the White House, ecological blue-chip coins that meet the following conditions will be greatly empowered:
Have a mature application layer dapp

Ethereum ETF has not yet formed a favorable landing. Before the S1/S3 documents are approved for registration, there is still a sentiment of upward speculation. The optimistic estimate of the time for listing and trading is after June. With nearly 3 million ETH, and a high negative premium in recent years, there are many arbitrage chips. It is expected that after listing, it will face a similar situation as GBTC, with a large selling pressure on the market in the early stage, and the extent of the callback depends on the ability to bear the demand at that time.In addition, the FIT21 bill passed by the House of Representatives provides a solid basis for #山寨季到来 . The bill will allow some currencies with good narratives and stable profitability to obtain the right to distribute dividends independently, turning them from air coins into valuable coins.