As we approach the November events, many are feeling anxious about the market. Personally, I prefer to take a traditional analytical approach, especially in a market influenced by numerous macro-related issues.
I utilize the MVRV indicator to assess Bitcoin's current value indirectly.
Currently, the MVRV stands around 2, indicating that the market's surface value is twice the on-chain estimated value. However, rather than focusing on this absolute value, I emphasize 'trend-based judgment.'
I use the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and the 4-year average, which typically reflects Bitcoin's cycle. At present, the MVRV is above this average, and it has only recently surpassed the 365-day average.
This suggests that the upward trend remains intact, and generally, the cycle peak tends to occur when the MVRV reaches levels between 3 and 3.6.
Assuming the Realized Value (RV) remains constant, a 43-77% increase is necessary. When applied to Bitcoin, this translates to a target of $95k to $120k. Of course, as the market rises with new buying interest, the RV is likely to increase as well, possibly forming a peak above these levels (considering previous cycles).
While Bitcoin has risen significantly over the past year, it has only returned to the average level on the MVRV indicator. The upward momentum is still being maintained.
Written by CoinLupin
