Analysis of the Bitcoin Price Cycle.
Invalidity of the Monthly Box Reference
The use of the monthly box shown in the chart as a reference to predict Bitcoin prices is illogical in my view. This is because it does not align with the four-year Bitcoin market cycle, which alternates between bear markets and bull runs. Given that we are currently entering the fifth phase of the cycle, I believe this reference point is inaccurate.
Comparison with May 2017
At this stage of the cycle, I consider our current position to be similar to May 2017, which marked the final upward phase leading to the peak of the bull run. I anticipate that we will witness price surges similar to those seen between May and December 2017.
Forecasting the Bull Run's End
Assuming that May 2017 corresponds to October 2024 in the current cycle, we can expect the bull run to conclude in approximately six months. This suggests that Bitcoin may reach its peak by April 2025, followed by a significant decline.
