In February of last year, 2023, I explained the following to my Team:
Economic data confirming a recession typically follows a rise in the unemployment rate. Historically, official announcements of a recession are significantly delayed, often occurring when the recession is nearing its end. This delay means that the markets have often already begun to experience a downturn, similar to the sharp declines witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Such market corrections present a prime opportunity for investors to accumulate assets across various markets.
I believe we have now reached the stage I discussed, after more than a year and a half of waiting.
When Bitcoin reached $25,000, I charted out a roadmap for Bitcoin, dividing each cycle into stages, each with its own rules and conditions. While the explanation is extensive, the chart speaks for itself.
Having experienced two seasons of volatility in digital currencies, I understand the strong price fluctuations that often do not reflect the project's size or value. Price manipulation is easily achievable in the crypto world.
Doubt creeps into your mind, making you hesitant to trust a project due to its declining market value. Consequently, all investors exit the project, allowing market makers to hoard the majority of coins, leading to significant price hikes. It's a journey that's far from easy, contrary to popular belief.
In the current market phase, most traders have become accustomed to expecting a drop after every rise. This behavioral pattern creates an ideal setup for a trap, as many will likely sell during this recent upward movement. Once retail investors finish their selling spree, the market is primed for a strong, rapid surge—an aggressive "pump" that won’t allow time for hesitation and will leave sellers caught off-guard.
As for those holding short positions, it’s fair to say they’ll face significant losses.
In the current market phase, most traders have become accustomed to expecting a drop after every rise. This behavioral pattern creates an ideal setup for a trap, as many will likely sell during this recent upward movement. Once retail investors finish their selling spree, the market is primed for a strong, rapid surge—an aggressive "pump" that won’t allow time for hesitation and will leave sellers caught off-guard.
As for those holding short positions, it’s fair to say they’ll face significant losses.
The use of the monthly box shown in the chart as a reference to predict Bitcoin prices is illogical in my view. This is because it does not align with the four-year Bitcoin market cycle, which alternates between bear markets and bull runs. Given that we are currently entering the fifth phase of the cycle, I believe this reference point is inaccurate.
Comparison with May 2017
At this stage of the cycle, I consider our current position to be similar to May 2017, which marked the final upward phase leading to the peak of the bull run. I anticipate that we will witness price surges similar to those seen between May and December 2017.
Forecasting the Bull Run's End
Assuming that May 2017 corresponds to October 2024 in the current cycle, we can expect the bull run to conclude in approximately six months. This suggests that Bitcoin may reach its peak by April 2025, followed by a significant decline. #BTCPredictedNewATH #BTCUptober #LearnTogether #InvestSmartly
In this analysis of the BTC/USDT chart on the 3-day timeframe, we observe a potential bullish scenario based on key technical indicators:
50 MA Breakout: The price has recently approached the 50-period moving average (MA), which acts as a significant dynamic resistance level. If the price successfully breaks above the 50 MA and sustains this level on a 3-day close, it could indicate a shift in momentum toward bullish market sentiment. Historically, moving average crossovers often lead to substantial price movements, particularly in larger timeframes like this one.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The chart incorporates Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly focusing on the 0.236 level at approximately $63,294. A clean break and hold above this level would reinforce bullish momentum, as this retracement zone often serves as a critical resistance point after a market pullback. Breaking this level could signal that the correction phase is over, with the bulls regaining control.
Potential Upside to $74K: Once the price clears the 0.236 Fibo level, the next significant resistance would likely come from the previous all-time highs near $74,000. A breakout from current levels could generate enough bullish momentum to push the price toward these highs. The yellow arrow illustrates this expected price hike, assuming the necessary breakout occurs.
In summary, if the price confirms a breakout above the 50 MA and 0.236 Fibo level on the 3-day chart, the path toward $74K could open up. This potential rally is contingent on market sentiment remaining positive and the breakout being sustained.
$btc #bitcoin Many investors are currently anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and there is a prevailing belief that such a move will lead to a significant market downturn. Historically, over the past 100 years, whenever the Fed has cut rates, it has typically been followed by a sharp decline in the markets. This pattern is well-documented, and past data supports this reaction.
However, it is crucial to recognize that this time could be different. The market’s reaction to a potential rate cut is likely to deviate from historical patterns, and in fact, we may witness a market surge in the short term. Why is this?
Historical Context: Rate Cuts and Recessions
In the past, every time the Fed cut rates, it was in response to economic conditions such as rising unemployment and the official declaration of a recession. In those cases, inflation was at its peak, and as the economy weakened, the markets followed suit by declining. Lowering interest rates was a tool to combat recession, but it came at a time when market sentiment was already bearish, and inflation had started to fall along with the markets.
The Current Situation: A Unique Scenario
Today, we are in uncharted territory. Inflation has been declining without the onset of a recession, something that has not happened in the past 100 years. The reason for this unique outcome lies in the aggressive actions taken by the Fed, which raised interest rates from near zero to 5.5% in a relatively short period—a historic increase of over 2200%. This has allowed the Fed to bring inflation down successfully without triggering a recession.
This is a significant deviation from historical precedent. In previous inflationary periods, the economy would often slide into recession as a natural outcome of rate hikes. However, the Fed’s unprecedented approach in this cycle has managed to tame inflation while keeping the economy from contracting into a recession.
The Implication for Markets
Given that the Fed has managed to lower inflation without inducing a recession, this time around, a rate cut could have the opposite effect on markets compared to what we’ve seen in the last century. Instead of signaling an economic slowdown or recession, a rate cut now could serve as a positive catalyst for markets in the short term. Investors may interpret this as a sign of stabilization rather than panic, causing a rally rather than a crash.
This insight comes after conducting deep research into 100 years of historical data, including a thorough comparison of recession rates, the strength of the dollar, interest rate changes, and market behavior. Leveraging artificial intelligence and options data, this analysis reveals how this current economic scenario is unlike anything we’ve seen before.
For the first time in history, inflation has dropped without the economy going into recession—a unique development that will likely impact investor sentiment and market movements in ways not seen in the past 100 years.
🚨 Urgent: According to the official website of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, the founder of Binance platform (@cz_binance) will be released from prison next week on September 29, 2024.
I've witnessed China banning mining, yet I'm still here. I’ve endured the global pandemic lockdown, and I'm still here. I’ve survived the FTX disaster, and I'm still here. I’ve seen Tesla halt Bitcoin payments, and I'm still here. I’ve watched inflation soar to 9%, yet I'm still here. I’ve seen banks fall like dominoes, and I’m still here. I’ve experienced a historic 2000% surge in interest rates, from 0% to 5.5%, the biggest Federal Reserve hike ever—and yet, I'm still here.
Through every storm, every market shake, and every disaster, Bitcoin remains standing—and so do I.
And now, as I stand at the edge of the next wave, I'm patiently waiting for what could be the last, massive altcoin bull run.
Gold Price Analysis and Future Projection This chart compares gold prices with another relevant market index, highlighting key inflection points where significant changes in the price direction occurred. The analysis focuses on the following key points:
Gold Peak Identification:
The chart shows a well-defined gold peak around August 2020 (highlighted in yellow). Historically, these peaks represent moments when gold reaches its highest value before a market correction begins. The drop in prices from this peak aligns with other market trends, indicating an overbought condition. Price Action Correlation:
By examining historical data, it becomes evident that gold prices follow a repetitive cycle of reaching a peak and then correcting downward. This pattern suggests that gold has periodic peaks followed by corrections, which are visually represented by the downward yellow arrows. Current Positioning:
As of the present moment, the chart indicates that we are looking for a new gold peak. The sharp upward movement in the blue trendline suggests that the price of gold may once again test higher levels. This could potentially mark a new peak similar to the one seen in 2020. Future Projections:
The analysis predicts that gold may experience another upward surge, as indicated by the green arrows, but is expected to face a correction once again. This projection suggests that gold could potentially rise to new highs in the near term before retracing back to a long-term support level, shown by the ascending green trendline at the bottom of the chart. Support and Resistance Levels:
The green trendlines provide a clear indication of the long-term support and resistance levels for gold. The lower trendline suggests that any downward movement will likely find support around the $2,000 mark, while the upper line signals resistance, possibly leading to a breakout if conditions align.
$btc #bitcoin Many investors are currently anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and there is a prevailing belief that such a move will lead to a significant market downturn. Historically, over the past 100 years, whenever the Fed has cut rates, it has typically been followed by a sharp decline in the markets. This pattern is well-documented, and past data supports this reaction.
However, it is crucial to recognize that this time could be different. The market’s reaction to a
📊 Bitcoin and Gold Decoupling: What It Means for Investors 🪙📉 vs. 🟡📈 $BTC
The recent negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold shows a key shift in market sentiment. While Bitcoin prices dip, gold is hitting record highs. This signals that investors are becoming risk-averse, seeking safer assets like gold in times of uncertainty.
💡 What to Watch:
As Bitcoin moves away from its correlation with gold, the market is telling us it prefers safe-haven assets.
This could mean continued volatility for BTC as fear persists.
👉 What You Can Do:
1. Diversify your portfolio. Focus on a balanced mix between crypto, gold, and other assets.
2. Keep an eye on market sentiment shifts.
3. Analyze on-chain data and technical trends to spot reversals.
The chart illustrates a concerning trend in credit card delinquency rates, particularly among banks outside the top 100 in asset size. As of Q1 2024, defaults have reached **record levels** surpassing those seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
Key Points:
- Delinquency rates are approaching 8%, a critical threshold.
- This sharp increase outpaces the rise observed during the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2008 recession.
- The economic implications are significant, signaling financial strain on consumers and potential instability in the banking sector.
With the economy showing signs of stress, these rising default rates could foreshadow broader economic challenges ahead.
🔍 The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous all-time high (ATH) breaks.
This indicates that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles, suggesting they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure.
📊 Chart InsightsThe LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio has been consistently below 0.5 since July 2021.This behavior is different from previous ATH breaks where LTHs sold more of their holdings📊
💡 Understanding these trends can help you make informed decisions about when to sell or hold onto your Bitcoin. Stay ahead of the market and invest wisely! $BTC $AVAX $ZRO
🔍 The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) has reached its maximum value of 1.0, signaling significant accumulation over the past month.
This indicates a market shift back to accumulation, suggesting strong investor interest in Bitcoin.
🟣 Graph Insights:The ATS has been steadily increasing, reaching its peak value.
This strong accumulation phase could be a key indicator for potential market movements.
💡 Stay informed and make timely investment decisions based on these insights. Understanding these trends can help you navigate the market effectively. $BTC $AVAX $ZRO
🔍 **What is Hash Ribbons?** Hash Ribbons is a powerful indicator that flags periods of miner stress by tracking the 30-day and 60-day moving averages (MAs) of Bitcoin's Hash Rate. When these averages cross, it typically signals the end of miner capitulation.
💡 **Current Signal:** For the first time since the last Bitcoin halving, Hash Ribbons has signaled the **end of miner capitulation**. This comes as the Hash Rate hits an all-time high of **638 EH/s**. Miners are turning on more efficient machines, reducing selling pressure.
📈 **Why This Matters:** While Hash Ribbons doesn't pinpoint price bottoms, it often precedes price rallies. With reduced selling pressure from miners, history suggests we could see higher prices ahead.
🛠 **Strategic Insight:** This is a **bullish** signal. Consider this a cue to monitor Bitcoin closely, as the market could be gearing up for its next leg up.
Market Analysis: Significant Liquidations in Derivatives Markets
In recent market activity, the derivatives sector experienced substantial liquidations, highlighting the volatility and risk inherent in leveraged trading. A total of $275 million worth of long positions were forcibly closed. This typically occurs when traders, who have bet on the price of an asset increasing, are unable to meet margin requirements due to adverse price movements. As a result, their positions are automatically liquidated to prevent further losses.
Additionally, $90 million worth of short positions were also liquidated. Short positions are bets on the price of an asset decreasing. When the market moves against these positions, traders may also fail to maintain the necessary margin, leading to forced closures.
The combined total liquidation volume reached $365 million. This significant figure underscores the high level of market stress and the rapid price movements that can trigger such large-scale liquidations. These events are crucial for market participants to monitor, as they can provide insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for traders and investors, as it helps in assessing market conditions and making informed decisions. The forced liquidation of positions can lead to cascading effects, where the initial liquidations trigger further price movements, potentially leading to additional liquidations and increased market volatility.