Cardano (ADA) has correlated with the broader market, experiencing a retracement from its yearly high of $0.810 in March to as low as $0.357 on June 22. However, ADA has now deviated from the struggles of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), exhibiting a 2% increase in the past 24 hours and over 12% in the past two weeks.

Explosive Rally For Cardano

Intriguingly, technical analysts believe that ADA could be on the verge of an explosive rally in the coming weeks, potentially retesting its yearly high and setting the stage for a surge above the $1 mark.

Crypto analyst Captain Fabik points to the confirmed Falling Wedge Breakout on ADA’s daily chart, with the token surpassing the crucial $0.407 price mark on Tuesday. 

Fabik predicts a bullish rally of approximately 70% for ADA in the coming months, envisioning a price around $0.704, just below the yearly high.

Echoing this sentiment, optimistic users anticipate a solid bullish rally for ADA, expecting a move toward the $0.80 mark shortly, citing the formed Falling Wedge pattern.

However, not all analysts share the same level of bullishness. Crypto Bullet offers a more cautious perspective. While acknowledging potential price increases for ADA, Crypto Bullet does not foresee new all-time highs in this bull cycle. 

Instead, Crypto Bullet suggests that the highest ADA can reach during this cycle is the 0.786 Fibonacci level. The analyst sets macro targets at $1.15 and $1.80, highlighting the current gap of over 86% from ADA’s all-time high of $3.09 during the 2021 bull run.

Bullish Sentiment Surrounds ADA

Cardano (ADA), currently boasting a market capitalization of $14.6 million, shows further technical indicators on its daily chart, suggesting a bullish continuation of the current uptrend.

Market expert Jesse Olson highlights the pending buy signal on the daily chart of ADA, accompanied by bullish targets set for the token. 

Indicators signaling this bullish sentiment include a bullish divergence, a buy signal on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and a bullish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD).

Analyzing the chart, Olson predicts a continuous climb for ADA’s price, initially targeting the $0.470 mark, followed by a move just below the $0.550 level. According to the analysis, the ultimate price target is $0.650.

However, despite mounting bullish predictions, several resistance levels remain to be overcome. As ADA currently trades at $0.415, the token faces its first challenge at the $0.418 mark in weeks.

On its path to the $0.600 level, Cardano’s native token will encounter key resistance walls at $0.438, $0.503, $0.517, and $0.590. The ADA must overcome these notable hurdles to reclaim previously lost levels.

As the bullish sentiment grows, attention turns to the upcoming Chang upgrade, which is set to deploy a new set of governance features to Cardano. 

This upgrade aims to unlock the final features of on-chain governance, including delegated representative participation and treasury withdrawals. The impact of these developments on ADA’s uptrend remains to be seen.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Source: NewsBTC.com

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An analyst explained that the next target for Bitcoin could be $78,700 if BTC could cross this resistance level of an on-chain pricing model.

Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands Put Resistance At $65,800

In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed some price levels for Bitcoin that could be important based on an on-chain pricing model. The model is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio.

The MVRV ratio is a popular indicator that, in short, keeps track of the ratio between the value the Bitcoin investors are holding right now (the market cap) and what they initially used to purchase their coins (the realized cap). This metric tells us about the profit/loss situation of the market as a whole.

Now, a pricing model called the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands uses standard deviations from the all-time mean of the MVRV ratio to determine significant price levels for the cryptocurrency.

Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the levels relevant to this model have looked recently.

The chart’s yellow line in the middle represents the price level at which the MVRV ratio would become equal to its all-time mean. At present, this level is equal to around $52,900.

The level above this line, colored in orange, corresponds to +0.5 standard deviation (SD) above the indicator’s mean. Currently, the cryptocurrency’s spot price is under this mark, implying that the MVRV ratio’s deviation is smaller than +0.5 SD.

Ali notes that this level, corresponding to +0.5 SD, at about $65,800, is “one of the most crucial resistance areas” for Bitcoin. The graph shows that Bitcoin struggled to break above this level during retests in December 2023 and January 2024.

The analyst says that if BTC can break past this resistance, the $78,700 mark, corresponding to +1 SD from the MVRV ratio mean, could be the next significant target.

Historically, tops in the asset have become more probable to form when the MVRV ratio has deviated above this line. The all-time high (ATH) price earlier in the year, which continues to be the rally’s peak, also occurred soon after the asset rose above this level.

From the current spot price of Bitcoin, a surge towards this potential target of $78,700 would suggest an increase of more than 27% for the cryptocurrency. Before the asset could dream of retesting this level, it would need to break past the $65,800 resistance.

BTC Price

Bitcoin surged past the $63,800 level yesterday but has seen a setback in the past 24 hours, as its price has now dropped to $61,800.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (ASI) kicked off phase 1 of its token merger process. The project recently announced the beginning of the migration process with the delisting of Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) and SingularityNET (AGIX) from crypto exchanges. However, FET is facing some pressure following its rebranding and supply update.

ASI Token Merger Phase 1 Begins

On July 1, the ASI alliance and Fetch.AI (FET) announced the multi-token merger to unify OCEAN, AGIX, and FET. As part of phase 1, withdrawals and deposits with OCEAN and AGIX would close in preparation for the migration to FET.

Additionally, the delisting process from crypto exchanges would begin for the two tokens. Meanwhile, FET would continue to trade as usual, with spot and perpetual trading continuing under the same tricker.

The initial phase of the merger aims to “onboard exchanges and data aggregators for a smooth transition.” Fetch.AI saw a rebrand across platforms. The project took the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance name and logo but kept its ticker.

Moreover, the ASI alliance opened a migration platform on the SingularityDAO dApp to help users migrate their tokens. Some crypto exchanges, including Kraken and Coinbase, revealed they would not support customers on the ASI token merger.

Kraken announced that the trading of OCEAN and FET will continue to be supported on the platform until further notice. The exchange also noted that users must withdraw their tokens to a self-custodial wallet to migrate them.

Similarly, Coinbase informed its users that it chose to “not execute the migration of these assets on behalf of users.” Both exchanges also clarified they would not support the eventual migration from FET to ASI.

FET Retraces Following Rebrand

After updating the token’s name, supply, and market capitalization, FET flipped Render (RNDR) in the AI tokens sector. According to CoinMarketCap data, the token is now the 27th largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with $3.38 billion.

Following the rebrand, FET’s price dropped similarly to when the token merger delay news was released. At the time, the merging tokens saw an 8-10% price decline following the rescheduling of the merger. The delay was attributed to logistical and technical issues.

FET fell from the $1.4 support zone on Monday to $1.27, a 9.7% drop in 12 hours. However, the AI token has recovered the $1.3 mark, currently trading at $1.33, representing a 3.6% decline in the last 24 hours.

Some market watchers found this performance disappointing. Some investors believe it might be best not to get involved until the merger is completed. Sjuul Follings, crypto trader and founder of Alt Crypto Games expressed his disappointment with the token’s recent fakeout.

Per the trader, he was optimistic about the late June price action, believing the token was about to break out and expand ahead of the ASI alliance. Nonetheless, FET could not reclaim the $1.8 support zone and retraced to the $1.4 support level over the weekend.

Despite the bearish trend, investors remain optimistic about the token’s future as the merger’s phase 1 is only starting. Some investors forecast a short-term price target of $5 for ASI and a long-term goal of $13.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Cardano price started a steady increase above the $0.400 resistance. ADA is now consolidating gains and might aim for more gains above $0.4225.

ADA price started a fresh increase and traded above $0.420.

The price is trading above $0.4120 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.

There are two key bullish trend lines forming with support at $0.4120 and $0.4080 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken).

The pair could start a fresh increase unless there is a close below the $0.40 support zone.

Cardano Price Gains Traction

In the past few days, Cardano started a decent increase from the $0.3800 support zone. ADA climbed above the $0.40 and $0.4050 resistance levels, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.

It even cleared the $0.420 resistance and tested $0.4225. A high was formed at $0.4225 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a move below the $0.4220 and $0.4200 support levels. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.3782 swing low to the $0.4225 high.

ADA price is now trading below $0.4120 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There are also two key bullish trend lines forming with support at $0.4120 and $0.4080 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair.

If there is another upward move, the price might face resistance near the $0.420 zone. The first resistance is near $0.4225. The next key resistance might be $0.4450. If there is a close above the $0.4450 resistance, the price could start a strong rally. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.4850 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $0.50.

Downside Correction in ADA?

If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.4225 resistance level, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.4120 level.

The next major support is near the $0.4080 level and the second trend line. A downside break below the $0.4080 level could open the doors for a test of $0.400. The next major support is near the $0.3880 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.4120 and $0.4080.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.4200 and $0.4225.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Cardano (ADA) On The Rise: Exploring Upward Momentum and Bullish Prospects appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

XRP price extended gains and tested the $0.4880 resistance zone. The price corrected gains but the bulls are now protecting the $0.4765 support.

XRP price is correcting gains from the $0.4880 resistance zone.

The price is now trading above $0.4750 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

There was a spike below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $0.4790 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).

The pair might climb higher again if it stays above the $0.4765 support zone.

XRP Price Corrects Gains

XRP price remained in a positive zone above the $0.4740 resistance, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bulls were able to push the price above $0.4840. However, the bears were active near the $0.4880 resistance zone.

A high was formed at $0.4877 and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the $0.4820 and $0.4800 levels. The price even spiked below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $0.4694 swing low to the $0.4877 high.

Besides, there was a spike below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $0.4790 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. However, the bulls are now active near the $0.4765 support and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $0.4694 swing low to the $0.4877 high.

It is now trading above $0.4750 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $0.4820 level. The first major resistance is near the $0.4840 level. The next key resistance could be $0.4880.

A clear move above the $0.4880 resistance might send the price toward the $0.50 resistance. The next major resistance is near the $0.5050 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.5250 resistance.

More Losses?

If XRP fails to clear the $0.4820 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.4780 level.

The next major support is at $0.4765 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a downside break and a close below the $0.4765 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $0.4650 support in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.4765 and $0.4740.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.4840 and $0.4880.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post XRP Price Dip: Should Investors See This as a Buying Chance? appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Ethereum (ETH) price has encountered a setback after briefly surpassing the $3,500 mark on Monday, dropping once again to the $3,400 support level on Tuesday. The delay stems from the expected full approval by the SEC for Ethereum ETF applications, which have now been postponed to July 8.

SEC Requests Revised Filings

Analysts had initially anticipated approval by July 2, but the SEC has requested issuers to submit revised filings by July 8. Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas shared on social media that the SEC took additional time to provide feedback, resulting in a revised timeline. Balchunas stated: 

Unfort think we gonna have to push back our over/under till after holiday. Sounds like SEC took extra time to get back to ppl this wk (altho again very light tweaks) and from what I hear next wk is dead bc holiday = July 8th the process resumes and soon after that they’ll launch

SEC Chair Gary Gensler previously indicated that Ethereum ETFs would likely receive approval by “the end of the summer.” The SEC is currently reviewing and approving the S-1 forms, which represent the second step in launching spot Ethereum ETFs. 

Despite the delay, asset managers remain optimistic about the SEC greenlighting the first US spot Ethereum ETF applications that directly invest in Ether, with expectations set for mid-July. A recent Bloomberg report highlighted the constructive dialogue between asset managers and the regulator.

Ethereum ETF Launch Inches Closer

Per the report, the regulator’s feedback provided minor questions that issuers are currently addressing. In May, the SEC approved the proposal by exchanges to list these products, requiring a separate approval for their launch.

Steve Kurz, head of asset management at Galaxy Digital, predicted the approval of an Ethereum ETF within the next couple of weeks. Galaxy Digital has filed for an Ether ETF, and Kurz expressed confidence in the process, emphasizing their familiarity with the requirements based on their experience with the Bitcoin ETF.

Several prominent firms, including BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments, 21Shares, and Invesco, have filings awaiting approval. The disclosure of fees on the respective funds is a necessary step before trading commences.

Assuming the funds receive a green light, one key question remains: Will Ether portfolios generate a similar level of demand as the historic debut of US spot-Bitcoin ETFs in January, which accumulated $52 billion in assets?

 $15 Billion In Inflows Within First 18 Months

As previously reported by NewsBTC, Ethereum ETFs may attract significant inflows in the first few months of trading, although they may not have the same volume of inflows as the newly approved Bitcoin ETF market. 

In a note to investors Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Matt Hougan projected that these ETFs could see $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months of trading. 

To arrive at this estimate, Hougan considered the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products (ETPs) proportionally.

Hougan pointed out that US investors have already invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs, and he anticipates this figure to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025. 

Drawing from this reference, he determined that Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to match the Bitcoin ETFs, a process that could take around 18 months. 

Additionally, he noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would launch with $10 billion in assets, thanks to the conversion of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF.

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,418, recording significant losses in the monthly time frame amounting to over 9%. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Ethereum price failed to climb above the $3,520 zone and corrected gains. ETH is now showing bearish signs below the $3,400 support zone.

Ethereum started a downside correction after it failed to surpass the $3,520 zone.

The price is trading below $3,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,410 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).

The pair is now at risk of more downsides below the $3,350 support zone.

Ethereum Price Dips Again

Ethereum price failed to continue higher above the $3,520 and $3,550 resistance levels. ETH formed a top near $3,520 and started a fresh decline like Bitcoin. There was a move below the $3,450 and $3,420 support levels.

The bears pushed the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $3,351 swing low to the $3,516 high. It seems like the price trimmed most gains and might continue to move down below the $3,350 support zone.

Ethereum is trading below $3,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It is also below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $3,351 swing low to the $3,516 high.

If there is a recovery wave, the price might face resistance near the $3,400 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,410 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The first major resistance is near the $3,435 level.

The next major hurdle is near the $3,465 level. A close above the $3,465 level might send Ether toward the $3,520 resistance. The next key resistance is near $3,550. An upside break above the $3,550 resistance might send the price higher. Any more gains could send Ether toward the $3,650 resistance zone.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,410 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $3,365. The first major support sits near the $3,350 zone.

A clear move below the $3,350 support might push the price toward $3,250. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,120 level in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,350

Major Resistance Level – $3,435

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee has doubled down on his initial Bitcoin prediction, strongly emphasizing that the pioneer cryptocurrency will surge to $150,000. The Wall Street strategist highlighted Bitcoin’s strong bullish outlook, believing that the cryptocurrency will eventually pull out of bearish trends soon.

Bitcoin To Hit $150,000 In 2024

In a recent interview with CNBC Television, Lee expressed bullish optimism over Bitcoin’s future outlook, reaffirming his previous prediction that the cryptocurrency would reach new all-time highs of $150,000 by the end of 2024. 

Earlier in May, Lee made a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, anticipating a dramatic surge to $150,000 before the year ends. At the time, the Fundstrat head of research attributed his ambitious forecast to the cooling down of inflation in the United States (US) and a subsequent increase in the demand for BTC. However, now Lee adds that BTC could witness a sharp rebound following the conclusion of Mt Gox’s Bitcoin repayment process to creditors.

During the interview, Lee suggested that the upcoming Bitcoin redistribution by Mt Gox might be driving the bearish pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Earlier in June, Mt Gox disclosed that it would officially start its $9 billion worth of BTC and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) repayment plans in July. The redistribution will see creditors being refunded and compensated for the Bitcoin exchange’s hack attack in 2014. 

With $9 billion worth of BTC and BCH set to flood the market, speculations are rising concerning potential sell-offs from creditors. This sentiment has led to BTC’s downward spiral, triggering stronger selling pressures from investors. 

Bitcoin’s price also fell below $60,000 at some point, recording even more declines as miners sold off their holdings to purchase more effective mining tools. Lee believes that following any Gox’s repayment process, Bitcoin may have a “pretty sharp rebound” in the second half of the year. 

Bearish Trends May Be Over For BTC

Bitcoin price has successfully crossed the $60,000 threshold and is now trading at $62,523, as of writing. Since early June, the cryptocurrency has experienced a sharp downward trend, crashing by up to 20% due to the substantial outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

However, Bitcoin may be getting ready for a fresh upside as analysts foresee a major rebound as miners’ selling pressure cool off and the broader crypto market stabilizes.

Particularly, on-chain market intelligence platform, CryptoQuant has projected a potential upside for Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3). Furthermore, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has expressed bullish sentiment for BTC’s price prospects.  

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s underperformance in the previous month, describing this bearish event as a “negative June.” Despite the downtrend, the analyst foresees a strong rebound for Bitcoin in July, with an average return of 7.98% and a possible price increase to $63,200 or $63,800. 

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Fundstrat’s Head Of Research Says Bitcoin Will Reach $150,000, Here’s When appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Bitcoin price failed to continue higher above the $63,650 resistance zone. BTC is now correcting gains and might revisit the $60,850 support.

Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $63,650 resistance zone.

The price is trading below $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $61,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

The pair might struggle to start a fresh increase above the $62,250 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

Bitcoin price struggled to extend gains above the $63,650 and $63,800 resistance levels. A high was formed at $63,798 and the price started a downside correction.

The price declined below the $63,000 level. The bears were able to push it below the $62,500 level and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was also a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59,951 swing low to the $63,798 high.

Bitcoin price is now trading below $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $61,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The bulls are now trying to protect the $61,400 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59,951 swing low to the $63,798 high. If there is another increase, the price could face resistance near the $61,850 level and the trend line.

The first key resistance is near the $62,250 level. The next key resistance could be $62,500. A clear move above the $62,500 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher.

In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $63,250 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $63,650 resistance in the near term.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $62,250 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $61,400 level.

The first major support is $60,850. The next support is now forming near $60,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,000 support zone in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $61,400, followed by $60,850.

Major Resistance Levels – $62,250, and $62,500.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Bitcoin Price Takes a Step Back: Analyzing The Recent Correction appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Amid the current Bitcoin market performance suggesting signs of a rebound, prominent crypto analyst Wise Advice has highlighted a critical indicator in Bitcoin’s trading pattern.

Bollinger Bands Signal 200% Bitcoin Surge

According to the analyst, the Bitcoin weekly Bollinger Band, a statistical chart characterizing the prices and volatility over time, has shrunk to its second-lowest width in six years. Traditionally, such contraction has been a precursor to substantial price movements.

Wise advice disclosed that historically, a similar constriction was observed before Bitcoin surged 200% from a base of $24,000 to a high peak within five months. This indicator is particularly noteworthy as it suggests that market volatility is about to increase, potentially leading to a significant price rise.

For context, Bollinger Bands are a set of trend indicators derived from a moving average and an upper and lower band, each set at a standard deviation from the moving average. This tool helps traders to assess how high or low the current price is relative to previous trades.

A narrowing of these bands typically indicates a reduction in volatility. A sharp increase or decrease often follows it in price, as the market prepares to make a substantial move.

Bitcoin Holders, Read this

The #Bitcoin weekly Bollinger band is now at its 2nd lowest level in 6 years.

The last time it was this low, #BTC was trading at $24K, and it pumped 200% in just 5 months pic.twitter.com/jnud3pCjAr

— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) July 1, 2024

Recent Market Activity and Bullish Outlook

Despite a promising setup, Bitcoin has recently struggled to maintain its upward momentum. Over the past week, while there has been a modest 3% recovery, the price has faced resistance, peaking at $63,790 before dipping to around $62,563.

This recent price action occurs amid broader market anticipation of a favorable July. Market analysts, including the team at QCP Capital, reference historical data showing Bitcoin’s tendency to rebound in July with an average return of 9.6%, especially after weak performances in June.

This pattern of a strong July following a weak June is supported by additional market commentary. They are not alone in their optimism; other market analysts like Ali have also noted similar recovery patterns in past post-June slumps, hinting at a strong comeback in July.

Supporting the bullish sentiment are the substantial inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This Monday, these funds recorded daily net inflows totaling $129.45 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive flows and the most substantial intake since early June.

Leading the inflows were Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB, with significant contributions, suggesting that institutional interest remains strong despite the market’s recent fluctuations.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Source: NewsBTC.com

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The XRP price continues to remain suppressed under the heat of the Ripple vs. the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) legal battle. This suppressed price action has continued to discourage investors when its comes to the altcoin. However, not everyone has succumbed to the bearish pressure, as crypto analyst RLinda believes that the XRP price could be attempting a decoupling that could lead to a price breakout from here.

XRP Price Decoupling Could Trigger Price

Crypto analyst RLinda has forecasted a bullish picture for the XRP price where the altcoin could completely break out of its sluggish movement. The analysis which has now spanned a number of a days flows through XRP’s performance over the last year and how it has suffered crashes even when others in the market were reaching new all-time highs.

While the coin continues to be bogged down by the Ripple vs. SEC battle, crypto analyst RLinda believes that the XRP price could be reaching a possible decoupling. She explains that this is happening not just technically but fundamentally as well.

A possible decoupling is bullish for the XRP price, given that it would be the start of a major price rally. Using the 1-Week chart, the crypto analyst highlights some technical developments that could be important to this possible decoupling.

The first of these is that XRP is still testing the “Wedge resistance with the aim of breaking it.” Also, RLinda points out that volatility is decreasing as the consolidation is continuing at this point. However, this consolidation could be the reason that the price begins another rally.

As for where the price could go from here, the crypto analyst points out that it could possibly rally as high as $0.6265 and even reach $0.73 by the time it is done. However, XRP must hold the support level at $0.4637 while breaking the resistances being mounting at $0.4962 and $0.5720.

Factors Holding Price Down

While XRP price continues to be one of the most popular cryptocurrencies in the market, a number of factors have suppressed. The major one is the lawsuit mentioned above. Even though Ripple has scored multiple victories against the regulator during this time, the fact that the lawsuit is yet to be officially over continues to present a major hurdle.

In her analysis, RLinda points to these issues as being behind the price not performing well. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has said that he expects the lawsuit and settlement to be complete by the end of this summer. This puts it sometime before September.

If this happens, then it would mark a pivotal point for the turnouts in the XRP price. “The Ripple vs. SEC case is a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency regulation, as a final victory would be a strong green sign for the entire cryptocurrency community amidst the SEC getting a number of restrictions on its activities lately due to overstepping its authority,” the analyst said.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post XRP Price Attempts Bullish Decoupling Amid Major Developments appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

On-chain data shows a PEPE whale has withdrawn a large amount of the memecoin from Binance today, a sign that could be bullish for its price.

PEPE Whale Has Made A Large Outflow From Binance In The Past Day

According to data from the cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, a massive Pepe transaction has been spotted on the blockchain during the last 24 hours.

The transfer involved the movement of 1,286,733,285,955 tokens on the network, worth more than $14.7 million when the transaction went through.

Given this large scale, it’s likely that a whale entity was responsible for the move. Whales are humongous investors who carry large amounts in their wallets. As they can make huge single-transaction movements like this latest one, they are considered influential beings on the market.

Therefore, their moves can be worth keeping an eye on, as they may have implications for the price. Generally, though, it’s hard to say how exactly a move might reflect on the market, but sometimes, the addresses involved can provide some hints.

Below are the address details for the latest Pepe whale transaction.

As is visible, the sending address for this PEPE transaction was one attached to the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. Conversely, the receiver wasn’t affiliated with any centralized platform, suggesting that it was likely an investor’s self-custodial wallet.

Transfers that move from exchanges to personal addresses are called “exchange outflows.” Generally, investors make outflows from these platforms when they plan to hold in the long term, so these transfers can potentially carry bullish benefits for the cryptocurrency.

The whale may have made this latest transfer out of Binance for a similar purpose. It could also be that these coins were just freshly purchased by this large investor, thus making a move even more positive for the memecoin.

However, there also exists a bearish scenario where the whale has taken out their PEPE stack to sell through an over-the-counter (OTC) desk instead. As it’s impossible to say with any certainty which of these scenarios this transaction follows, it only remains to be seen what effects this transfer ends up having on the coin’s price, if any.

PEPE Price

Pepe had recently recovered towards the $0.0000121 level, but the asset has since seen a plunge of almost 5% as its price is now back at around $0.0000115. The chart below shows what the memecoin’s performance has looked like over the last few days.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating between $61,000 and $62,000 after a brief drop to $58,000 on June 24. While retail investors have shown renewed interest alongside institutional counterparts, the market faces a mix of bullish signs and potential headwinds.

Retail Investors Return To Bitcoin 

In a recent social media post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the resurgence of retail investors, as evidenced by a four-month high in new BTC addresses reaching 432,026, adding to the sentiment that investors are betting on a significant price increase for BTC in the coming months, despite recent price volatility. 

In a separate post analyzing BTC’s recent price action, Martinez also suggested that the largest cryptocurrency on the market is currently confined within a parallel channel, with a potential rebound to $63,200 or $63,800 if the lower bound at $62,500 holds. 

In particular, Martinez cites the critical resistance areas of $65,795 and $78,700 as key targets if BTC breaks above them.

However, not all news is positive for the Bitcoin market. In the past 72 hours, BTC miners have sold over 2,300 BTC worth approximately $145 million. This selling pressure adds to the US and German governments’ ongoing sell-off of confiscated BTC.

Mining Industry Under Pressure 

The mining industry faces challenges due to lower network fees and reduced block rewards resulting from the Halving event in April. 

Kaiko Research notes that average network fees have decreased from $3 to $5, a significant drop from around $45 in January. The halving saw block rewards reduce from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, impacting miner revenue.

This revenue squeeze has put pressure on miners, eroding profitability while fixed expenses such as energy, wages, and rent remain constant. The decline in network fees has further contributed to the reduction in revenue. 

Historically, Bitcoin price rallies following Halving events have helped miners compensate for the drop in rewards. However, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively unchanged since the April 19 software update.

In April, fees briefly surged to nearly $150 due to the increased minting of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the BTC blockchain. Although this temporarily relieved miners, fees have since returned to average levels. 

According to Bloomberg, Marathon Digital, one of the largest Bitcoin miners, sold 390 BTC in May and plans to sell more tokens to manage its finances.

Kaiko Research warns that the risk of forced selling by miners may persist in the coming months. As a result, the industry is expected to witness consolidation as miners seek to “consolidate assets” and “increase efficiency.” 

Notable examples include miner Riot Blockchain’s “hostile takeover attempt” of Bitfarms Ltd. and CleanSpark Inc.’s recent agreement to acquire Griid Infrastructure Inc. for $155 million in an all-stock transaction.

At the time of writing, BTC is still consolidating within its range at $61,880, down 2% in the 24-hour time frame, wiping out all gains in the past 30 days, as losses in this time frame amount to 9%. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com  

Source: NewsBTC.com

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At press time, Bitcoin is within a bullish formation and firm, rejecting attempts for lower lows despite slumping by roughly 20% in June.

Though there is hope that prices will trend higher in June, one analyst thinks BTC is walking on a tightrope. For buyers to take over, it means BTC will defy its historical trends observed in the last five years by printing green by September.

Will Bitcoin Beat The Odds?

Price data aggregated over the past five years paints a concerning picture for Q3 2023. In a post shared by one analyst, historical data shows that Bitcoin often dips in Q3, posting an average return on investment (ROI) of -5.21%.

If this sets precedence, then it means that though BTC is firm when writing, the coin will most likely end up in losses below current rates.

Looking at price charts, it is evident that buyers are in control, primarily because of Q1 2024 gains. Then, prices soared to all-time highs before correcting, dropping to $56,800.

Even though this line has not been broken, bulls have been struggling for momentum as bears have been unrelenting, forcing prices lower on numerous occasions.

BTC To $300,000? On-chain Activity And Institutional Adoption Rising

Despite the historical bearish trend in Q3, some analysts remain optimistic. Considering X, one analyst thinks BTC will fly to as high as $300,000 by 2025 based on the “power law” theory. This prediction is almost 5X from spot rates, an overly optimistic prediction.

Under the “power law” theory, the analyst said fundamentals play a crucial role. When a predictable growth pattern for Bitcoin based on its network activity is factored in, then the only way forward, the analyst said, is up.

To further support this outlook, the analyst said Bitcoin prices have followed the power law for over a decade. It means the coin’s intrinsic value is independent of market hype.  

Beyond this, several other metrics support the potential for continued growth. For instance, IntoTheBlock data reveals that the number of active Bitcoin addresses continues to rise, reaching levels not seen since mid-April.

An ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, said inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain strong despite recent price dips. This means that investors expect prices to trend higher despite short-term price fluctuations.

As institutions pour in on spot Bitcoin ETFs, other data also show that the top 25 hedge funds in the United States now hold BTC in their portfolios.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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On-chain data shows that selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has recently slowed down. This is significant considering the impact it could have on Bitcoin’s price heading into the third quarter of the year. 

Bitcoin Miners’ Selling Pressure Has Significantly Declined

Referencing data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, crypto analyst Crypto Dan noted that selling pressure from miners has significantly declined for two reasons. One is that the quantity of Bitcoin these miners sent to exchanges to sell has reduced drastically since May. 

Secondly, the crypto analyst mentioned that the volume of the OTC Desk that miners use for selling has been consumed, suggesting that someone recently bought up all the available Bitcoin supply from these miners. The volume of the OTC Desk is said to have piled up until June 29th, as there was no willing buyer to purchase these crypto tokens. 

 

Bitcoin miners greatly contributed to the price crashes the flagship crypto suffered in June. Data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock showed that these miners sold 30,000 BTC ($2 billion) throughout the month. This put significant selling pressure on Bitcoin, which caused it to drop below $60,000 at some point. 

As such, the decline in selling pressure presents a bullish development for Bitcoin and could continue the bull run for the flagship crypto. Crypto Dan noted that this development has created “sufficient conditions” to continue the upward rally for Bitcoin in this third quarter of the year. 

Crypto analyst Willy Woo had also previously predicted that Bitcoin’s price would recover once miners capitulate. With that out of the way, Bitcoin could enjoy an upward trend this month and make massive moves to the upside. 

BTC’s Uptrend Has Begun

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted in a recent X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin’s uptrend has begun. He claimed that the macro higher low has been confirmed, and Bitcoin is now rallying to the upside. He added that the flagship crypto is developing a macro bull flag, providing a bullish outlook for the crypto token. 

In another X post, the crypto analyst remarked that the goal for Bitcoin following its strong start to July is to build a “foundation from which it will be able to springboard to the Range High area at $71,500 over time.”

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also suggested that Bitcoin’s downtrend is over and a bullish reversal was underway as the flagship crypto makes significant moves to the upside. He also mentioned that he believes that Bitcoin has bottomed out and has found support at $60,000, meaning a decline below that price level anytime soon was unlikely. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,900, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Bitcoin Miners Slow Down Selling In July, What This Could Mean For Price appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Set against the backdrop of the vibrant Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, Satoshi Summer Camp is poised to be the highlight for families attending the event. This two-day extravaganza promises to blend fun, education, and community-building in a way that’s never been done before.

At the heart of Satoshi Summer Camp is the Family Fun Zone, a hub of activity where children and families can engage in a variety of enriching experiences. From instructor-led crafts to kid-approved snacks, and even an indoor play space, there’s something for every member of the family to enjoy. Parents can relax and connect with other families while their little ones are having a blast in the bounce house or at the activity stations.

For the older kids, aged 6-12, the Bitcoin STEM Camp, in partnership with BSTEM, offers a hands-on educational journey into the world of Bitcoin technology. Parents can drop their big kids off for two-days of learning, led by experienced instructors. Children will delve into topics such as 3D printing, cryptology, setting up nodes, and even designing games in Minecraft. It’s a chance for young Bitcoin enthusiasts to deepen their understanding of the digital currency in a fun and engaging way.

As the world of Bitcoin continues to expand, one set of parents is pioneering a unique approach to introducing Bitcoin to the next generation. Emily and David Bailey, inspired by their own journey in Bitcoin, welcomed their first child around the genesis of their now world-famous Bitcoin conferences, Bitcoin 2019, in San Francisco, CA. Two years later, their conference had grown significantly, and after witnessing the half pipes and expansive art gallery in Miami for Bitcoin 2021, the Baileys envisioned a space where families could come together to explore, learn, and play in the exciting world of Bitcoin. And thus this year, Satoshi Summer Camp was born.

“We wanted to create an experience that would not only educate children about Bitcoin but also foster a sense of community among families,” says Emily Bailey. “Bitcoin is more than just a financial tool; it’s a culture, and we want to ensure that everyone, including children, feels included and excited about its potential.”

Space for Satoshi Summer Camp is limited, and families are encouraged to reserve their spots early to avoid missing out on this one-of-a-kind opportunity. There are two types of passes, one for the fun zone – aimed at the 5 and unders – and one that includes BSTEM for 6-12 year olds.

Founded by longtime Bitcoin advocate Zach Shelton and based in Virginia, BSTEM specializes in offering engaging STEM programming tailored specifically for young Bitcoin enthusiasts. With a team of experienced instructors and a focus on hands-on learning, BSTEM is the perfect partner for Satoshi Summer Camp’s educational endeavors.

In its quest to provide a memorable experience for families, Satoshi Summer Camp and BSTEM are collaborating with a handful of other Bitcoin businesses to build a comprehensive and complete platform for the children. Satoshi Summer Camp is thrilled to announce the Tuttle Twins as a sponsor and collaborator with kid-approved cartoons and books for the campers to enjoy. Arts and crafts will integrate a Lightning-based piggy bank for children, courtesy of Lightning Piggy, and Bitcoin monster character design with Spiral’s Here Comes Bitcoin. Campers will also learn about the new games from SHAmory and FreeMarketKids. Parents can join in on the fun and meet the artists, authors, and creators supporting Bitcoin families.

“Bitcoin is not strictly an ideology. Culture is malleable. We need to remember that these are children, and what it means to be a bitcoiner will certainly change in the coming decade as our children become adults,” further explained Bailey. “Our goal is to make it fun for kids.”

Campers and their families will get to explore the Expo Hall through guided “field trips.” Destinations include the Mining Village, the Art Gallery, and the opportunity to take part in a collaborative mural by Marco Santini.

The Camp begins Friday, July 26th and continues Saturday, July 27th. The Family Fun Zone welcomes families for a day of play and scheduled activities, designed to come and go as they please. The Bitcoin STEM Program starts at 9 AM each day and concludes at 4:30 PM. Lunch and snacks will be provided to all campers, both days. On Industry Day, July 25, there will be a soft opening where the playground is open for free play from 8 AM to 5 PM.

As the Bitcoin 2024 conference approaches, anticipation for Satoshi Summer Camp is building. Families from around the world are gearing up for a weekend of fun, learning, and community-building in Music City, where the spirit of Bitcoin will be alive and thriving. Don’t miss your chance to be a part of this groundbreaking event!

To reserve a spot for your child, visit their website today.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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In a recent commentary on X, Daniel Yan, co-founder of Matrixport and CIO at Kryptanium Capital, offered a detailed comparison between the current crypto market dynamics and those observed in early June. His insights are especially relevant as the market approaches several key economic releases that could significantly influence the trajectory of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL).

History Repeating For The Crypto Market?

Yan’s analysis began with an overview of the current market recovery, noting that both BTC and SOL are “grinding at key technical levels nicely now,” suggesting a potential setup for a breakout similar to the situation in early June. During that period, Bitcoin was challenging a major resistance level at $71,500, influenced by positive Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and weaker-than-expected ADP employment change numbers, which fueled optimism about a potentially dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

However, Yan drew attention to the volatility that followed, when a stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reversed the bullish sentiment, causing Bitcoin to plummet from highs of $72,000 to around $58,000 within two weeks. He highlighted this pattern to caution investors about the potential for similar market reactions in the current context.

Looking forward, Yan expressed a generally bullish outlook for Q3 2023, citing improving liquidity conditions and the resolution of the Mt. Gox case, which has loomed over the market for years. Yet, he remains wary of the short-term impacts of the upcoming NFP release, scheduled for this Friday. “I’m getting cautious going into the NFP Friday – a similar first half of the pattern may happen,” he warned.

Yan also pointed to the CPI release as the next crucial data point, with the Cleveland Fed providing modest estimates for June but less favorable projections for July. He emphasized the impact of summer energy prices on inflation metrics, noting that rising crude oil and gas prices since early June are likely to influence both headline CPI and PCE directly, and core inflation numbers indirectly.

“A 0.3% MoM Core CPI expectation is already bad, imagine it realizes worse,” he remarked, underscoring the potential for these figures to exceed expectations to the upside, further complicating the Fed’s inflation management efforts.

The immediate focus for Yan and many in the crypto community is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech tonight at the European Central Bank. His comments are highly anticipated for hints on how the Fed views the current macroeconomic conditions and its potential policy actions in the near term. “Let’s see what he thinks of the current macro situations,” Yan stated, indicating the significant market-moving potential of Powell’s address.

Bitcoin Breakout Needs Confirmation

Matrixport released a “Chart of the Day” featuring Bitcoin’s price movements from June 2 to July 1, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s recent break from a short-term downtrend. After signaling a bottom on June 25 on their Matrixport Greed & Fear index—a tool often used to predict potential reversals—Bitcoin showed signs of an oversold condition, which typically precedes a price recovery. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price began to rebound tactically over the weekend, overcoming some of the immediate technical hurdles.

While the market appears to be setting up for a potential rally, Yan’s analysis and the impending economic updates suggest that investors should brace for possible fluctuations. As these events unfold, the crypto market’s response to economic indicators and central bank communications will be pivotal in shaping its short-term direction.

At press time, BTC traded at $62,802.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Undemonstrated Effectiveness and Efficiency

I’m not aware of any study establishing the effectiveness of KYC measures in combating money laundering. And it’s not for lack of searching.

Conversely, there are numerous studies tending to conclude the opposite. Ronald Pol, a researcher at La Trobe University in Melbourne, synthesized in a research paper published in 2020, many works: Anand 2011; Brzoska 2016; Chaikin 2009; Ferwerda 2009; Findley, Nielson, and Sharman 2014; Harvey 2008; Levi 2002, 2012; Levi and Maguire 2004; Levi and Reuter 2006, 2009; Naylor 2005; Pol 2018b; Reuter and Truman 2004; Rider 2002a, 2002b, 2004; Sharman 2011; van Duyne 2003, 2011; Verhage 2017.

The main finding of this research paper is captured in a more than eloquent title: “Money Laundering Control: The Least Effective Public Policy in the World?”

What do we learn?

That KYC and AML procedures allow the recovery of approximately 0.05% of global criminal money, meaning $1.5 billion out of the $3 trillion in crime money circulating worldwide each year. And this is assuming that 50% of the recovered money is through these procedures, whereas an empirical study in New Zealand showed a different reality, where 80% of seizures were made through conventional means, and only 20% through KYC and AML procedures.

The author of the paper summarizes it as follows: “if the impact of three decades of money laundering controls barely registers as a rounding error in criminal accounts and “Criminals, Inc” keep up to 99.95 percent of the earnings from misery, and reasonable prospects for better outcomes remain persistently unexplored, the harsh reality is that the current policy prescription inadvertently protects, supports and enables much of the serious profit-motivated crime that it seeks to counter. In any event, the anti-money laundering experiment remains a viable candidate for the title of least effective policy initiative, ever, anywhere (Cassara 2017, 2).”

A Europol study in 201636 yields similar figures: criminals would retain nearly 99% of their profits.

That’s effectiveness covered.

What about efficiency, meaning what resources are mobilized to achieve this result?

The answer is once again confusing.

Studies vary widely in estimating the compliance costs imposed on businesses, particularly financial ones, ranging in 2018 from $304 billion annually according to LexisNexis, to $1.28 trillion according to Thomson Reuters37, without even considering the costs imposed on states and public services, as well as indirect costs (productivity losses, frictions, etc.).

Even by a low estimate, for every euro extracted from crime, 200€ were spent. The situation is so absurd in Europe that compliance costs (€144 billion) exceed the total money (€110 billion) generated by crime each year!

Faced with such poor results and the magnitude of their costs, any sensible person or company would take some time to reflect on the sustainability of such a system. But we are dealing with a religion here, and asking for evidence and reasoning can make one suspect of complicity with money laundering and terrorism.

This industry has also become extremely lucrative for a range of actors who have developed a wide range of services: compliance-specialized lawyers, consulting firms, as well as startups offering dedicated tools, even named RegTech. Interestingly enough, with nearly $4.3 billion in penalties imposed on financial institutions in 2018, and $8.1 billion in 2019, the business also proves lucrative for states, which earn more in fines than they recover from criminals…

Totalitarian regimes dreamed of it, liberal democracies did it: financial surveillance and its consequences

With the imposition of these procedures on the financial system, new or existing risks take on major proportions.

The first is censorship, linked to the drastic reduction of online anonymity. The second is arbitrariness in the application of decisions and sanctions. The third is the theft of sensitive information.

Financial censorship as a political weapon for democratic asphyxiation

The risk of censorship is often perceived as a distant problem in Western democracies. And yet, living in a democracy does not prevent the temptation of censorship that prevails in human beings, and examples abound.

The Democracy Index published by the British newspaper The Economist ranks Canada 13th, the United Kingdom 18th, South Korea 22nd. All are classified as “full democracies,” ahead of France (23rd). India, the world’s largest democracy, ranks 41st, not far from our Belgian (36th) or Italian (34th) neighbors.

And yet, these countries have a story to tell about censorship related to customer knowledge procedures and KYC.

In Canada, for example, as recently as 2022, as truckers’ protests intensified, the Ontario government and then the Canadian government declared a state of emergency and imposed financial coercion measures on the protest movement, bypassing the usual democratic and legal processes. It was the first time in Canadian history that such a state of emergency was imposed.

Under the pretext of wanting to know the origin of the funds financing the crowdfunding campaigns supporting the movement, the financial surveillance agency (FINTRAC) was involved. The two financial platforms GoFundMe and GiveSendGo were forced to freeze the funds. Even more worrying, the Canadian government invoked its emergency powers to freeze the individual accounts of nearly a hundred people involved in the protests. A real financial suffocation under a political pretext.

Whether one agrees or disagrees with the reasons behind the protests is besides the point. This state of emergency would later be deemed unconstitutional by the Federal Court of Canada in January 202438. But the damage is done: the protest has ceased, protesters have been financially choked, the rule of law and individual freedoms have been diminished.

In the United Kingdom, another case made headlines and caused quite a scandal: that of Nigel Farage. This Brexit supporter and leader, a client of the same bank for 43 years, announced in 2023 on Twitter39 that his accounts had been closed without explanation. Two days later, as the scandal erupted in the UK, he announced that his requests to open accounts had been rejected by 9 banks, under the pretext that he is a “politically exposed person,” a PEP, an acronym created by these customer knowledge regulations. However, other political decision-makers do not face the same problems in opening or maintaining bank accounts, raising questions about differential treatment based on political opinions.

The incident caused a stir in the UK, and the BBC confirmed that the account had been closed for political reasons40. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had to address the issue41 and summoned the country’s major banks to ensure their respect of freedom of expression.

Even more recently in India, at the end of March 2024, the influence of the banking sector on the finances of economic actors was materialized into the country’s politics, enabling the ruling party to financially suffocate its rival, the Indian National Congress, the former party of Gandhi.

As the Human Rights Foundation recalls in its 17th Financial Freedom Report newsletter42, “The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, froze the bank accounts of its largest political opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), citing allegations of tax evasion, just weeks before the upcoming election. According to INC statements on X43, ‘all our bank accounts have been frozen. We cannot carry out our campaign work. We cannot support our workers and candidates. Our leaders cannot travel across the country.’ A few days later, the Indian agency for fighting financial crime also arrested opposition leader Arvind Kejriwal44 in what is seen as a broader move to eliminate competition in the upcoming elections. These events highlight the growing need for a neutral and apolitical currency as a tool of democratic activism and for political campaigns.”

It is tempting to think that such things “do not happen here.” But the examples I have deliberately cited are democracies, most of which are better ranked in this regard than France.

And France has already shifted on similar issues.

An unfair system : selective enforcement of measures

Identity collection and counter-terrorism efforts in areas outside of finance have also shown that they can be widely diverted from their original purpose. One notable example is South Korea, the first country to attempt to combat anonymity on the internet, enacting a law in 2008 requiring identity collection by social networks to combat hate speech and misinformation.

In 2012, the Constitutional Court of South Korea abolished the law45, deeming it unconstitutional. It regretfully noted numerous pitfalls: the selective and arbitrary application of this law due to its overly vague criteria, the lack of evidence showing that the law’s enforcement had reduced the quantity of illegal content posted online, and the stifling of local economic actors, who had to comply with costly standards, to the benefit of foreign actors who continued to operate in the country, attracting South Korean internet users concerned with their ability to express themselves freely.

The Court concluded by affirming that identity collection had “a chilling effect on people’s expression of opinion itself,” which constitutes “an obstacle to the free formation of public opinions — a basis for democratic society.”

One doesn’t need to go to Asia to see the danger posed by this censorship and laws aimed at combating terrorism.

In France, certain political groups, especially on the left, had a rude awakening when, after supporting various laws aimed at limiting hate speech and the glorification of terrorism, they are now targeted for “eco-terrorism” or “promotion of terrorism.” The fight against terrorism often serves as a convenient pretext to restrict the expression of legitimate political opposition, which is serious and damaging in a democracy, in which the ability to disagree with the majority opinion must absolutely be preserved.

In this regard, the parallel with the identity collection by financial institutions is striking: no evidence of their effectiveness, drastic economic standards leading to sector concentration and benefiting foreign actors, and selective enforcement by authorities of the prosecutions to be initiated, among other things.

How else can we explain, as we saw in the introduction, that developers of a Bitcoin wallet are already in pretrial detention and face up to 25 years’ imprisonment for wrongdoings attributed to them in a fallacious manner, while certain financial institutions, crypto or otherwise, regularly avoid prison sentences for much more significant and serious offenses, sometimes committed consciously?

In 2012, HSBC was accused by the US government of money laundering for Mexican drug cartels and violating sanctions against countries like Iran. The laundered amounts would approach a billion dollars46. HSBC agreed to pay a record fine of $1.9 billion to US authorities.

But no prison sentences were imposed.

Again in 2012, UBS was convicted by US authorities for assisting US citizens in evading taxes by hiding undeclared assets abroad, totaling $20 billion47. UBS paid a fine of $780 million and had to provide the names of thousands of American clients.

But no prison sentences were imposed.

Better-known in France, in 2014, BNP Paribas pleaded guilty to violating US sanctions against countries such as Sudan and Iran, as well as charges of money laundering, totaling $30 billion48. The bank agreed to pay a record fine of $8.9 billion and was temporarily banned from certain dollar transactions.

But no prison sentences were imposed.

In 2019, Danske Bank was fined €150 million by Danish authorities for facilitating large-scale money laundering, involving $227 billion49 mainly from Russia.

But no prison sentences were imposed.

In 2012, Standard Chartered was accused by US authorities of money laundering for Iranian clients, bypassing US sanctions, totaling $250 billion50. The bank agreed to pay a fine of $667 million.

But no prison sentences were imposed.

$250 billion is more than the total market capitalization of Bitcoin in 2020. That’s the magnitude we’re talking about.

The largest bank in the United States, JP Morgan, has been convicted 27751 times by the courts since 2000, for a total of nearly $40 billion in fines. That’s roughly a conviction of nearly $150 million every month for 24 years, for offenses ranging from consumer protection violations to mortgage abuses, obviously including deficiencies in anti-money laundering efforts. The latter represents $2 billion out of the $40 billion in fines.

I couldn’t find a single person in traditional finance, since the 2008 crisis, who has gone to prison on charges related to anti-money laundering or terrorism financing.

In contrast, between Pertsev, the developer of Tornado Cash, who spent nine months in prison without trial and has just been sentenced to 5 years, and the developers of Samouraï Wallet, who spent some time in prison, again without trial, and one of whom was released on bail, it seems that we are right in the midst of what the Constitutional Court of Korea called “selective enforcement by authorities of the prosecutions to be initiated.”

Not So Personal Data

The third extremely dangerous point raised by these practices of collecting customer data and combating money laundering and terrorism financing is, obviously, the theft of this data.

You don’t have to go too far back in time to find examples of data breaches exploited by cybercriminals. In France, if you’ve been unemployed even once in the past 20 years, your data is no longer personal, after a hack occurred at the National Agency for unemployment, France Travail. Your name, surname, date of birth, social security number (and therefore gender, county, and city of birth), email address, postal address, and phone number: all of this is now in the wild, in the hands of cybercriminals, who have already started using it for their deeds.

Of course, what happened to France Travail also happens in the world of finance.

Among the biggest data breaches in recent years, we can mention Equifax in 2017, an American credit rating agency, affecting the personal data of over 150 million people 52 53, or JP Morgan in 2014, with 76 million households and 7 million businesses54, or Capital One in 2019, with over 100 million affected customers, among the largest in recent years. Europe is not spared either: HSBC has experienced multiple data breaches over the past ten years55 56, but fintech companies like Revolut57 are also not immune.

In short, once your personal data is collected, the question is no longer “if” but “when” it will be accessible to hackers.

According to the Identity Theft Resource Center (ITRC), an American NGO dedicated since 1999 to evaluating identity theft crimes in the United States, there were over 3,200 data breaches or hacking events in 2023 in the United States, affecting over 350 million victims. That’s more than the entire population of the country. The financial industry emerges as the main victim, just behind the medical industry and its valuable health data58.

According to the US Federal Trade Commission, credit card frauds between 2019 and 2023 increased by over 50%, from about 280,000 consumer complaints to over 425,00059. Among these frauds, about 90% resulted from identity theft that allowed the opening of a new account in the name of a person who had their personal information stolen, and only 10% resulted from fraud on an existing card.

According to Transunion, a company that collects, monitors, and protects banking data, the use of personal data to forge new false identities reached new records in 2023, resulting in a loss of $3 billion in the United States60.

Especially with the development of AI, which reaches frightening levels of sophistication in terms of identity theft (voice, video, etc.), it becomes necessary for this “free-for-all” personal data to stop as soon as possible. Protecting personal data is therefore also a moral duty towards others because protecting oneself is protecting others from scams and breaches of trust.

It is therefore a matter of physical and digital safety for everyone. This is particularly the fight that has been launched in Switzerland, where the canton of Geneva has already voted 94% in favor of amending the constitution in favor of creating a right to digital integrity61.

Conclusion: An excessive, Unjustified, and Counterproductive Lockdown that Tramples Fundamental Rights

The practices and instruments of financial regulation impose extreme limitations on the exercise of several fundamental rights and freedoms. In particular, they disproportionately reduce both monetary confidentiality and the freedom to dispose of one’s own funds, while leading to the prohibition, legal or practical, of technologies and tools regardless of their use, as well as differences in treatment, for a given behavior, depending on the actor involved. By extension, this deals a fatal blow to innovation in Europe.

However, these practices and regulations have not been justified, as their effectiveness in combating money laundering and terrorism financing has not been “convincingly demonstrated”62, which is an obligation for the State in any endeavor to limit freedoms.

Conversely, they pose greater risks, for individuals and society, than those they claim to combat, particularly in terms of the protection of personal data (the fact that individuals cannot escape a major risk concerning very sensitive data also constitutes an infringement of their dignity).

Finally, their cost to the economy – and thus the freedom of enterprise – alone surpasses the proceeds of the crimes they claim to target.

In these circumstances, the infringements on the aforementioned fundamental rights are arbitrary and unacceptable in a democratic society.

More specifically, firstly, the rights to dignity, self-determination, and resistance to oppression are trampled upon. A substantial part of the right to property is nothing more than a chimera in a Europe where individuals must seek permission before spending their own money, without being certain that it will not be blocked the next day for a reason that has no legal basis and against which there is no effective remedy. The freedom of trade and industry is curtailed by the inability to develop innovative tools.

The right to privacy, more generally, is also violated to the point of annihilating its very essence: when anonymous cryptos are banned, and transfers without KYC are blocked, before any suspicion of wrongdoing and therefore regardless of their illicit use or not, it is privacy itself that is targeted, even though it constitutes the normal exercise of privacy.

Yet, the right to privacy protection is a pillar of democracy: described as “fundamentally fundamental” in that it “preconditions the enjoyment of most other rights and freedoms”63, it is intended “to ensure the development, without external interference, of the personality of each individual in relations with others,” to use the terms of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)64. This capacity for personal development, associated with the freedom to make choices in complete confidentiality, guarantees the “democratic functioning of society”65.

To impose limitations on any of these fundamental freedoms, a clear and precise legal basis, motivated by a demonstrated necessity, strictly proportionate, with guarantees to attest to it is rightly expected.

But none of this is complied with as it stands. It is the advent of a presumption of guilt that paves the way for the selective application of disproportionate laws, by governments, but also by financial actors. The hypertrophy of the banking sector is indeed largely the child of these regulations, imposing staggering costs and consequently concentration, protected by giant entry barriers, leading de facto to recurring abuses of dominant position.

Preventive control of everyone, all the time, before the slightest suspicion of committing an offense, becomes the norm. Even though the European Court of Human Rights and the Court of Justice of the European Union prohibit it. For companies subject to these regulations, the absence of control becomes an offense, in violation of primary law.

This situation should frighten any citizen desiring to live in a liberal democracy.

Thanks to Estelle De Marco, Doctor of Private Law and Criminal Sciences, expert with the Council of Europe specializing in the protection of fundamental rights, for her contribution on legal developments.

[36] World Bank Group, What Does Digital Money Mean for Emerging Market and Developing Economies?, 2022, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099736004212241389/pdf/P17300602cf6160aa094db0c3b4f5b072fc.pdf

[37] Anti-Money Laundering Regulation EU, 2024, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0365_EN.pdf

[38] Cour EDH, Podchasov v. Russia, https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/?i=001-230854.

[39] Does crime still pay? Criminal Asset Recovery in the EU, Survey of Statistical Information 2010–2014, 2016, https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/criminal_asset_recovery_in_the_eu_web_version.pdf

[40] Voir les références dans le papier de Ronald Pol.

[41] Paul Vieira, Canada’s Use of Emergency Powers to End Trucker Protests Was Unconstitutional, Judge Rules, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/canadas-use-of-emergency-powers-to-end-trucker-protests-was-unconstitutional-judge-rules-6a537434

[42] https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1674357026921623552

[43] Ben Quinn, Jim Waterson, BBC writes to Farage to apologise over Coutts bank account report, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/bbc-writes-to-farage-to-apologise-over-coutts-bank-account-report

[44] https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1681656257600532481

[45] Human Rights Foundation, The Financial Freedom Report #17, 2024, https://mailchi.mp/hrf.org/hrfs-weekly-financial-freedom-report-290691

[46] https://twitter.com/incindia/status/1770707793730838967?mc_eid=332f07f5f9

[47] Main Modi opponent Kejriwal challenges arrest ahead of India election, 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240322-modi-s-main-opponent-kejriwal-held-in-graft-probe-ahead-of-indian-elections

[48] https://english.ccourt.go.kr/ “Identity Verification System on Internet”, 23 Août 2012

[49] Marc L. Ross, HSBC’s Money Laundering Scandal, 2023, https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2013/investing-news-for-jan-29-hsbcs-money-laundering-scandal-hbc-scbff-ing-cs-rbs0129.aspx#:~:text=HSBC%20Bank%20USA%20laundered%20%24881,to%20result%20from%20systematic%20failures.

[50] Trial Begins for Ex-UBS Banker Accused of Hiding $20 Billion in US Assets, 2014, https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/2675-trial-begins-for-ex-ubs-banker-accused-of-hiding-20-billion-in-us-assets

[51] BNP Paribas accepte de payer une amende record aux Etats-Unis, 2014, https://www.leparisien.fr/economie/bnp-paribas-le-montant-de-l-amende-fixe-ce-lundi-soir-30-06-2014-3964657.php

[52] Teis Jensen, Danske Bank’s 200 billion euro money laundering scandal, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1NO10D/

[53] Dominic Rushe, Jill Treanor, Standard Chartered bank accused of scheming with Iran to hide transactions, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/06/standard-chartered-iran-transactions#:~:text=Standard%20Chartered%20bank%20ran%20a,of%20the%20UK%2Dbased%20bank.

[54] Violation Tracker, Parent Company JP Morgan Chase https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/?parent=jpmorgan-chase

[55] Todd Haselton, Credit reporting firm Equifax says data breach could potentially affect 143 million US consumers, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/credit-reporting-firm-equifax-says-cybersecurity-incident-could-potentially-affect-143-million-us-consumers.html

[56] FCA, Final Notice to Equifax Unlimited, 2023, https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/equifax-limited-2023.pdf

[57] Tara Siegel Bernard, Ways to Protect Yourself After the JPMorgan Hacking, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/04/your-money/jpmorgan-chase-hack-ways-to-protect-yourself.html

[58] Scott Ferguson, HSBC Data Breach Shows Failure to Protect Passwords & Access Controls, 2018, https://www.darkreading.com/cyber-risk/hsbc-data-breach-shows-failure-to-protect-passwords-access-controls

[59] Elise Viebeck, HSBC Finance alerts customers to data breach, 2015, https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/239408-hsbc-finance-alerts-customers-to-data-breach/

[60] Carly Page, Revolut confirms cyberattack exposed personal data of tens of thousands of users, 2022 https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/20/revolut-cyb erattack-thousands-exposed/

[61] 2023 Data Breach Report, Identity Theft Resource Center, 2024, https://www.idtheftcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ITRC_2023-Annual-Data-Breach-Report.pdf

[62] Federal Trade Commission, Identity Theft Reports, 25 avril 2024 (données du 31 mars 2024), https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/federal.trade.commission/viz/IdentityTheftReports/TheftTypesOverTime

[63] TransUnion, TransUnion Analysis Finds Synthetic Identity Fraud Growing to Record Levels, 24 août 2023, https://newsroom.transunion.com/transunion-analysis-finds-synthetic-identity-fraud-growing-to-record-levels/

[64] Yannick Chavanne, Genève fait figure de pionnier en introduisant l’intégrité numérique dans sa Constitution, 2023, https://www.ictjournal.ch/news/2023-06-19/geneve-fait-figure-de-pionnier-en-introduisant-lintegrite-numerique-dans-sa

[65] Cour EDH, ch., 25 février 1993, Crémieux c. France, req. n°11471/85, § 38, https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/fre?i=001-62362.

[66] Antoinette Rouvroy et Yves Poullet, ‘The right to Informational Self-Determination and the Value of Self-Development: Reassessing the Importance of Privacy for Democracy’, in Serge Gutwirth et al., Reinventing Data Protection?, janvier 2009, p. 45–76, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225248944_The_Right_to_Informational_Self-Determination_and_the_Value_of_Self-Development_Reassessing_the_Importance_of_Privacy_for_Democracy , p. 16. See also Fabrice Rochelandet, ‘II. Quelles justifications à la vie privée ?’, in Économie des données personnelles et de la vie privée (2010), p. 21–37, https://www.cairn.info/Economie-des-donnees-personnelles-et-de-la-vie-pri–9782707157652-page-21.htm?contenu=resume. Voir aussi Antoine Buyse, ‘The Role of Human Dignity in ECHR Case-Law’, 21 octobre 2016, https://www.echrblog.com/2016/10/the-role-of-human-dignity-in-echr-case.html .

[67] CEDH, Botta v. Italie, 1998, §32, https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng?i=001-62701.

[68] Antoinette Rouvroy et Yves Poullet, précités, p. 13.

This is a guest post by Alexandre Stachtchenko. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

The post How Financial Surveillance Threatens Our Democracies: Part 2 appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Bitcoin & Beyond is an educational series by the team at The Rollup focused on a new and emerging class of builders in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Through spaces, panels, and interactive presentations, the objective is to provide deep technical insights into innovative scaling projects.

In an interview with Chase from Molecule, we dive into the growing appetite for next-generation virtual machines (VMs) aimed at enhancing Bitcoin’s programmability and scalability. Molecule is one company at the forefront of this experiment. Their attempt to implement Solana’s Virtual Machine (SVM) with Bitcoin is a strong signal that builders are also considering alternatives to the popular Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

High-Performance VMs for Bitcoin

Chase emphasized that Molecule’s goal is to leverage the most performant execution environment to benefit Bitcoin users. He believes the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) offers unparalleled throughput and cost efficiency. “SVM provides the highest throughput with a super battle-tested execution environment,” Chase noted, highlighting the VM’s ability to achieve 1000 transactions per second at a fraction of a penny per transaction.

The SVM’s architecture, designed for parallel transaction processing, significantly enhances scalability and efficiency. At a very basic level, it enables the concurrent execution of multiple smart contracts, setting SVM apart from other VMs that rely on sequential processing models, like the EVM. This results in higher throughput and lower latency, crucial for applications requiring high performance and minimal transaction costs

A Thriving Developer Ecosystem

A key reason for Molecule’s decision to adopt the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) lies in its thriving developer ecosystem and the wide adoption of Rust as a programming language. Solana boasts over 3,300 active developers as of late 2023, according to Electric Capital. This robust community is supported by extensive tooling and educational resources which have significantly improved developer retention.

Chase also brought up Rust, Solana’s development language, as playing a crucial role in the SVM’s success. With over 3 million Rust developers globally, the transition to using SVM is seamless for many, given their familiarity with the language. This extensive developer base and the language’s strong integration within Web3 ecosystems ensure that SVM is not only technically superior but also advantageous for broader adoption and innovation.

By focusing on a VM that aligns well with developer preferences and offers a robust, scalable environment, Molecule ensures they are building on a foundation that encourages rapid development and deployment of new applications on Bitcoin.

Monolithic vs. Modular Vision

Another emphasis was on the inherent limitations of Bitcoin’s Layer 1, which necessitate a modular approach to enhance programmability and scalability. Traditional monolithic blockchains integrate all core functions—execution, data availability, consensus, and settlement—into a single layer. While this design enhances security and decentralization, it also creates significant bottlenecks that limit transaction throughput and flexibility. Bitcoin’s Layer 1 can process only a limited number of transactions per second, restricting its ability to support complex smart contracts and higher transaction volumes​

To address these constraints, Molecule adopts a modular approach, decoupling these functions into distinct layers. This architecture allows for the specialization and optimization of each layer, significantly improving scalability and efficiency. By leveraging modular stacks, Molecule aims to integrate Solana’s execution layer (SVM) with ZK (zero-knowledge) verification for transactions on Bitcoin.

Molecule’s innovative SVM rollup stack focuses on enabling ZK verification of transactions through a ZKVM (Zero-Knowledge Virtual Machine) and posting ZK snarks (Succinct Non-Interactive Arguments of Knowledge) to Bitcoin using a challenge-reward mechanism. This method ensures secure and efficient transaction finalization on Bitcoin.

Molecule is considering different options for this challenge mechanism, potentially using BitVM or a variant based on a future OP_CAT soft fork. BitVM utilizes a challenge-prover system where any verifier can contest transactions during a predefined challenge period, ensuring the integrity and accuracy of asset transfers. Chase explained, “you can verify any asset transfers from molecule back to Bitcoin. There’s a challenge period where you can, any verifier can come in and say that, hey, there’s some issues, then they can go through this challenge mechanism.” This approach blends off-chain computation with on-chain verification, providing a robust and cost-effective solution for maintaining transaction finality and security.

A new Bitcoin L2 narrative

When asked about the Bitcoin community’s stance on Layer 2 (L2) solutions, Chase observed a notable shift in attitude towards embracing programmability. Traditionally, many Bitcoin purists have been wary of L2 solutions, fearing they might compromise the network’s security and decentralization. However, recent advancements and the increasing demand for more scalable applications have started to change this perspective.

“I think the Bitcoin community definitely demands programmability for Bitcoin. SVM is the best solution to that in terms of throughput and cost,” Chase stated, underscoring the community’s evolving openness to L2 innovations.

Molecule’s innovative approach and commitment to integrating high-performance virtual machines (VMs) with Bitcoin mark a transformative step towards enhancing Bitcoin’s utility and scalability.

This is a guest post by The Rollup. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

The post Accelerating Bitcoin Programmability With The Solana Virtual Machine appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.