Bitcoin STH SOPR approaches the critical "1" equilibrium line as BoJ reverses their "YCC tweak" policy well before it reaches their announced new "line in the sand" of 100bps. Immediatelly after BoJ decides to move the goal post, the spread on gold between Oanda & COMEX flies to highest since mid june '21 on the daily, and highest since march '20 on the weekly, only for gold to breach new ATH in terms of yen like about a weekend after BoJ makes their "YCC tweak" announcement on friday last week. USDJPY wipes out both sides of the market after clearing a major higher low in its uptrend only to continue marching higher right after BoJ is forced to make an U-turn as JP10Y reaches slightly above 60bps. Meanwhile Bitcoin keeps on sitting tight in its range, with STH SOPR approaching the "1" level, BBW continuing to look for new lows and volatility being surpressed still... In my humble opinion - if Gold sniffed it out, Bitcoin will follow suit soon enough. It is no coincidence that Binance is heading to Japan, too among the beginning of what I perceive as the beginning of govt bonds confidence major blow. This is the perfect storm environment for Bitcoin, make no mistake about it - the governments & central banks have historically always saved the bond market & used the currency as the release valve. This is now unfolding right in front of our very eyes with the Japanese Yen. Gold sniffed it out, there's a flight towards it already. To be honest with you, not really sure what Bitcoin is waiting for. Given the above described macro picture (feel free to review my last year's june BoJ YCC "blow up" call, back then still at 25bps here on CQ QT) I see only two possible scenarios ahead: - A "quiet" re-accumulation continatuion before the inevitable lift off - the lift off As always - should you decide to play this with leverage rather than spot - please be sure to manage your risk - leverage flush out prior to a take off can't be ruled out :)
Written by Tomáš Hančar
