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鬼族研习社
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On June 26, Lebanon, Israel, and the United States signed a trilateral framework agreement in Washington. The agreement stipulates that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from two areas within a roughly 6-mile-deep “security zone” in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking over. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also claimed that the IDF would continue to control “the vast majority” of the “security zone” in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while retaining freedom of military action throughout the entire “security zone.” Hezbollah, for its part, explicitly said it would refuse direct talks with Israel and would resist the agreement.
The ink was barely dry when a new round of Israeli attacks began. Reports said an Israeli drone struck an intersection in the Nabatiyeh area of southern Lebanon, and another dropped a stun grenade in the village of Taybeen. The IDF is advancing toward the outskirts of Shuuba village, using medium- and heavy-machine-gun fire along the way. Since a temporary ceasefire went into effect in April, the IDF has repeatedly launched attacks, citing Hezbollah’s alleged violations. This latest assault indicates that the framework agreement has not substantially changed the battlefield situation.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran are also fighting while negotiating. On the 26th, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes against facilities for Iranian missiles and drones, as well as coastal radar sites, as a response to attacks on merchant ships. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced it had struck U.S. targets in the Gulf region. The next round of technical U.S.-Iran talks is scheduled for June 30 in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz has resumed limited navigation, but on core issues such as the nuclear dossier, the two sides still hold clearly divergent positions.
The dual pattern of a Lebanon-Israel deal that is “signed but not implemented,” and U.S.-Iran talks that are “fighting while negotiating,” suggests that the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East will not clear quickly just because the agreement has been signed.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $60,000, with a Fear and Greed Index of about 15 (extreme fear). Geopolitical conflict may boost safe-haven demand in the short term, but upward room is limited amid expectations of tighter macro policy and continued ETF outflows.
Progress in the U.S.-Iran technical talks on June 30 will be a key short-term variable. $BTC
The ink was barely dry when a new round of Israeli attacks began. Reports said an Israeli drone struck an intersection in the Nabatiyeh area of southern Lebanon, and another dropped a stun grenade in the village of Taybeen. The IDF is advancing toward the outskirts of Shuuba village, using medium- and heavy-machine-gun fire along the way. Since a temporary ceasefire went into effect in April, the IDF has repeatedly launched attacks, citing Hezbollah’s alleged violations. This latest assault indicates that the framework agreement has not substantially changed the battlefield situation.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran are also fighting while negotiating. On the 26th, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes against facilities for Iranian missiles and drones, as well as coastal radar sites, as a response to attacks on merchant ships. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced it had struck U.S. targets in the Gulf region. The next round of technical U.S.-Iran talks is scheduled for June 30 in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz has resumed limited navigation, but on core issues such as the nuclear dossier, the two sides still hold clearly divergent positions.
The dual pattern of a Lebanon-Israel deal that is “signed but not implemented,” and U.S.-Iran talks that are “fighting while negotiating,” suggests that the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East will not clear quickly just because the agreement has been signed.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $60,000, with a Fear and Greed Index of about 15 (extreme fear). Geopolitical conflict may boost safe-haven demand in the short term, but upward room is limited amid expectations of tighter macro policy and continued ETF outflows.
Progress in the U.S.-Iran technical talks on June 30 will be a key short-term variable. $BTC
US stock market opening confirms global sell-off transmitting to the domestic scene. Nasdaq opened down 2.36%, once dipping over 500 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7%, marking the largest single-day drop in this phase, with all 30 component stocks in the red. Storage chips took a heavy hit, with SanDisk down 12.25% and Micron down 10.97%. ARM and Qualcomm fell over 7%, ASML and AMD dropped over 6%, and TSMC fell 6.17%. The big seven are showing divergence, with Microsoft and Apple up over 1%, but Tesla down 4% and Nvidia down over 3%.
BTC spot ETF has seen net redemptions for 12 consecutive days, setting a record since the product's launch. Nearly $3 billion has flowed out over the past 10 days, with total assets under management shrinking from $104 billion to $80.2 billion, totaling over $35 billion in outflows, including a single redemption of over $3 billion from IBIT, as institutional funds continue to exit at an accelerated pace.
On the futures side, approximately $1.8 billion has been closed out, with high leverage liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, a significant upgrade from the previous $500 million, and long leverage liquidations are far from over. On-chain data is synchronously deteriorating, with 10.2 million BTC underwater, and profitable holdings have dropped below the 15-year trend line, creating dual selling pressure from long-term holders and ETF institutional redemptions.
BTC is currently holding above the low of $61,862, with the $62,000 support surviving the initial hit from the US stock market opening. However, under the combined weight of ongoing ETF redemptions, escalated futures liquidations, and expanding on-chain losses, the support remains fragile.
If semiconductors continue to weaken, it will drag down overall risk appetite. If $62,000 fails to hold, a test of $60,000 will accelerate. $BTC
BTC spot ETF has seen net redemptions for 12 consecutive days, setting a record since the product's launch. Nearly $3 billion has flowed out over the past 10 days, with total assets under management shrinking from $104 billion to $80.2 billion, totaling over $35 billion in outflows, including a single redemption of over $3 billion from IBIT, as institutional funds continue to exit at an accelerated pace.
On the futures side, approximately $1.8 billion has been closed out, with high leverage liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, a significant upgrade from the previous $500 million, and long leverage liquidations are far from over. On-chain data is synchronously deteriorating, with 10.2 million BTC underwater, and profitable holdings have dropped below the 15-year trend line, creating dual selling pressure from long-term holders and ETF institutional redemptions.
BTC is currently holding above the low of $61,862, with the $62,000 support surviving the initial hit from the US stock market opening. However, under the combined weight of ongoing ETF redemptions, escalated futures liquidations, and expanding on-chain losses, the support remains fragile.
If semiconductors continue to weaken, it will drag down overall risk appetite. If $62,000 fails to hold, a test of $60,000 will accelerate. $BTC
Verified
On June 23, Trump posted that Iran has "completely and thoroughly agreed" to long-term or even permanent acceptance of the highest level of nuclear inspections, and if they disagree, negotiations will be terminated.
He also announced that based on Iran's "concessions," the Strait will remain open, with U.S. naval vessels on standby to reimpose a blockade if necessary. Frozen assets will be deposited into U.S.-controlled escrow accounts, specifically for purchasing American food and medical supplies.
However, Iran has been firing back! Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated there are currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit damaged nuclear facilities. Permanent UN representative Bahraini also directly refuted the U.S. claims, stating that there hasn't been such a decision, nor any discussion about it. Iran's Central Bank Governor Hemmati further stated that, based on the already signed memorandum of understanding, there is no obligation to purchase agricultural products from the U.S.
The divergence over nuclear inspections marks the third public fracture since the agreement was signed, with previous tensions centered on the management rights of the Strait and the use of oil revenues. Regarding the Strait, Bahraini confirmed full access for merchant ships for 60 days at no charge. On June 22, at least 36 merchant vessels crossed the Strait, marking the highest single-day count since the conflict began in late February, returning to nearly one-third of pre-war levels.
Iran and Oman issued a joint statement indicating they will negotiate the future management mechanism and fee standards for the Strait.
In the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 7.87%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21%. Data shows traders have shifted from expecting a single rate hike two weeks ago to betting on two hikes within the year.
These three parallel divergences are weakening the execution of the agreement. The 60-day opening of the Strait eases short-term risks, but if the nuclear inspection divergence leads to a breakdown in negotiations, it could trigger a blockade again.
BTC remains weak in the $62,000 range; prior to the PCE data release, any regression in U.S.-Iran relations or heightened rate hike expectations could accelerate testing of the $60,000-$60,400 level. $BTC
He also announced that based on Iran's "concessions," the Strait will remain open, with U.S. naval vessels on standby to reimpose a blockade if necessary. Frozen assets will be deposited into U.S.-controlled escrow accounts, specifically for purchasing American food and medical supplies.
However, Iran has been firing back! Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated there are currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit damaged nuclear facilities. Permanent UN representative Bahraini also directly refuted the U.S. claims, stating that there hasn't been such a decision, nor any discussion about it. Iran's Central Bank Governor Hemmati further stated that, based on the already signed memorandum of understanding, there is no obligation to purchase agricultural products from the U.S.
The divergence over nuclear inspections marks the third public fracture since the agreement was signed, with previous tensions centered on the management rights of the Strait and the use of oil revenues. Regarding the Strait, Bahraini confirmed full access for merchant ships for 60 days at no charge. On June 22, at least 36 merchant vessels crossed the Strait, marking the highest single-day count since the conflict began in late February, returning to nearly one-third of pre-war levels.
Iran and Oman issued a joint statement indicating they will negotiate the future management mechanism and fee standards for the Strait.
In the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 7.87%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21%. Data shows traders have shifted from expecting a single rate hike two weeks ago to betting on two hikes within the year.
These three parallel divergences are weakening the execution of the agreement. The 60-day opening of the Strait eases short-term risks, but if the nuclear inspection divergence leads to a breakdown in negotiations, it could trigger a blockade again.
BTC remains weak in the $62,000 range; prior to the PCE data release, any regression in U.S.-Iran relations or heightened rate hike expectations could accelerate testing of the $60,000-$60,400 level. $BTC
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