The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates for 2024 has garnered attention, particularly due to comments from the newly appointed hawkish member Kashkari. While various factors like inflation and oil prices play a role, the reluctance to cut interest rates stands out as a concerning aspect, impacting market sentiment negatively. The Bank of Japan's hint at potential interest rate hikes further adds to the market's unease, affecting assets like #BTC and #ETH. Traditionally, a pause in interest rate hikes is perceived as beneficial for risk markets, but prolonged high interest rates can strain businesses, especially smaller ones, and eventually lead to a recession. Kashkari's suggestion of no rate cuts raises the specter of an increased recession risk, prompting a negative response from the risk market. Despite the current strength of the US economy, with low unemployment rates and robust GDP growth, the possibility of a recession looms larger without rate adjustments. In essence, the market views three interest rate cuts in 2024 as the minimum acceptable threshold to avert a worsening crisis, with the absence of cuts potentially signaling an impending recession, likely affecting the timing in relation to the US election. It's worth noting that a recession would likely prompt a pullback in assets like #BTC and #ETH, which, despite being considered safe havens by some, remain largely viewed as risky assets by the majority.

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