YOU Can Still Make Serious Money in #Bitcoin This Year – But YOU Need To Have a Plan

1-10) We have been very strategic with our views. We set ambitious targets based on our cycle and macro analysis (correctly predicting the Bitcoin price at halving 15 months in advance). Still, we became conservative when we noticed dark clouds on the horizon (August 2023, January 2024, and April 2024). We called all three consolidation periods during the last year.

2-10) Based on our analysis, one big rally is still left this year. But to take advantage of it, we must time it perfectly and unfold things according to our plan. The last few weeks have shown that buy-and-hold (hodl) is no longer working in this market. Traders need to set realistic expectations and have a plan.

3-10) Hence, we need to identify potential turning points when Bitcoin moves from a bull market to a period of consolidation—a time when we want minimal exposure.

Read the full note:
https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/can-still-make-serious-money-bitcoin-year-need-plan

#BTC

What This Week's Inflation Data Means for Your #Bitcoins

👇1-10) Traders expect a +/-6% move for Bitcoin by the end of this week. This is, of course, on the back of tonight’s #PPI and, more importantly, tomorrow’s #CPI US #inflation data print. However, with implied volatility priced at 52.8% vs. 50.8% for other maturities, we can hardly say that a big move in BTC on the back of these inflation prints is priced in. Implied volatility is not expensive, as realized volatility traded slightly below 50%.

👇2-10) Technically, Bitcoin is still pressing onto the 60,800 to 61,400 support level. If this is broken, we would expect lower prices. The average entry price for #Bitcoin ETF holdings is around 57,000, so any break below 60,000 will likely cause an adrenaline spike for those investors. It is no coincidence that BTC inflows slowed once Bitcoin failed to rally.

👇3-10) Read the full analysis: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/weeks-inflation-data-means-bitcoins

#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC #cpi

Will #Grayscale Sue the #SEC and Flip the #Crypto Market? An Upside Catalyst for #Ethereum?

👇1-11) Two months ago, we presented our crypto market structure analysis, which indicated that consolidation was ahead, with downside pressure for Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies). Although many claimed that the post-halving period would be bullish, the #Bitcoin ETFs were (indefinitely) buying ten times the mining supply, and Bitcoin prices could only go up. Things are turning out differently— precisely as we expected. It’s tough to be bearish, but occasionally, this is the right call to make, and we do not shy away from these tough calls.

👇2-11)  Until the Bitcoin halving on April 20, we had seen approximately $42bn of (liquidity) inflows into crypto markets this year (see chart below). Since the halving, we have seen nearly zero growth in #stablecoin inflows, and Bitcoin futures leverage has been dramatically reduced. Contrary to the bullish tweets about a post-halving rally, crypto users have voted with their money by withdrawing or pausing inflows.

👇3-11) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/will-grayscale-sue-sec-flip-crypto-market-upside-catalyst-ethereum

#BTC #ETH #ENA

#Ethereum : The Bearish Case (report from April 2 when ETH traded at $3,500 - report available on our website)- since then we have been bearish and ETH is down -20%… and published several additional bearish ETH reports .. learn where ETH is going next …

https://10xresearch.co

#ETH #ENA

$1,300,000 per #Bitcoin? – Or Have we already reached this cycle’s HIGH?

Read more here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/1300000-per-bitcoin-already-reached-cycles-high

#BTC

Beware of Token Unlocks. Will Venture Capital Funds cut this Altcoin cycle short?

👇1-12) The current cryptocurrency bull market cycle might be shorter than previous ones and unlikely to culminate in a broad altcoin rally. Are the crypto venture capital funds to blame?

👇2-12) Despite the high daily trading volumes of over $100 billion and the rapid development and updates in crypto projects, significant constraints exist on the industry's growth potential.

👇3-12) Real-time on-chain analytics keep crypto traders engaged, starkly contrasting traditional stock investors who wait for quarterly earnings. However, the crypto market faces challenges that could limit the breadth and duration of the Bull Run. A rapid succession of nearly $2 billion of token unlocks during the next ten weeks could lower the market for altcoins.

👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/beware-token-unlocks-will-venture-capital-funds-cut-altcoin-cycle-short

#Altcoinseason2024 #ETH #Enabullrun #SUI

MORE than 90 per cent of stablecoin transaction volumes are not coming from genuine users, according to a new metric co-developed by Visa.

Out of about US$2.2 trillion in total transactions in April, just US$149 billion originated from “organic payments activity”.

Data provider Glassnode has estimated that the record US$3 trillion of total market circulation assigned to digital tokens at the peak of the 2021 bull market was actually closer to US$875 billion.

With stablecoins, transactions can often be double-counted depending on the platform users are transferring funds to.

For example, converting US$100 of Circle Internet Financial’s USDC to PayPal’s PYUSD on the decentralised exchange Uniswap would result in US$200 of total stablecoin volume being recorded on-chain.

#USDC #USDTfree #UniSwap #PYTHUSDT

What’s going on with #Ethereum? Should we even care?

👇1-14) Ethereum remains this cycle’s basket case. Surprisingly, BTC and ETH remain highly correlated, with an R-square of 95%. Ethereum’s weak fundamentals are becoming a roadblock for Bitcoin as they prevent broad fiat inflow into the crypto ecosystem.

👇2-14) During the last 2020/2021 cycle, ETH was the driver as Ethereum was supposed to replace the legacy banking system. NFT minting opened new areas of crypto adoption that could have expanded into various personalized documents on the blockchain, driving broad ‘wallet’ adoption. However, Ethereum developers did not react quickly enough.

👇3-14) Read the full note here: https://post.10xresearch.co/p/whats-going-on-with-ethereum-should

#ETH

#Bitcoin Surges Again: Traders Asking If This Bull Market Can Last?

👇1-12) During our tenure as portfolio managers at Millennium, one of the world's premier hedge funds renowned for its stellar risk-adjusted returns and stringent risk management, we often heard invaluable advice: “The market opens every day." Despite the allure of quick gains (FOMO), we remain committed to rigorous risk management and thorough analysis, ensuring opportunities are always ahead without compromising our standards.

👇2-12) Bitcoin is roughly back to the same level (64,000) when we emphasized that prices could fall back to 52,000/55,000 a week ago. In that report (on April 25), we showed how Bitcoin tends to sell off on higher inflation data BUT rallied after the FOMC meeting on March 20 – until another higher inflation data point was released. Bitcoin did decline but narrowly missed our entry buy zone by a tiny 3% margin (actual low 56,500). The decline from 68,300 when we emphasized cutting longs was -17%.

👇3-12) Identifying the right entry point is key in achieving a high-risk-adjusted return, especially in the absence of a larger bull market where prices can surge 2-5x. When the 60,000 level was breached, the nearest technical support was the 52,000/55,000 area. Interestingly, the Bitcoin rebound wasn't triggered by the FOMC meeting but by a well-timed comment from Blackrock about the (apparent) growing interest of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds in Bitcoin ETFs, which then accelerated on weaker employment data on May 3.

👇4-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-surges-traders-asking-bull-market-can-last

#BTC

Vinnik's BTC-e linked to the Mt. Gox hack pleaded guilty

During the Mt. Gox hack, which culminated in 2014, approximately 850,000 bitcoins were lost.

On May 3, 2024, Alexander Vinnik pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering in connection with his role in managing the cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e from 2011 to 2017. During its operation, BTC-e facilitated over $9 billion in transactions and served more than one million users globally.

The platform was involved in laundering the proceeds from various criminal activities, including computer intrusions, hacking incidents, ransomware attacks, identity theft schemes, operations by corrupt public officials, and narcotics distribution networks. Vinnik, who deliberately designed BTC-e to support these illegal activities, was implicated in causing financial losses amounting to at least $121 million.

Vinnik now faces the potential of a 20-year prison sentence at his forthcoming sentencing in the U.S. Previously, in 2020, he was convicted on money laundering charges in France and received a five-year prison term.

Fake Dip? The MOST important #Bitcoin Chart Traders Are Watching

👇1-12) Beware of fake dips when triangles break. Bitcoin’s relative strength has retraced back to 40%, which has been associated with rally attempts on three occasions since early 2023. We are pointing out a new ‘line in the sand’ where we might change our view. The previous ‘line in the sand’ where we turned bearish was 68,300.

👇2-12) Although we had been (correctly) bearish in January 2024 (most will remember that), we turned bullish on January 26. The last sentence of our January 26 report stated, “We would use any further dip to start buying again.” Our view was also covered in CoinDesk (here).

👇3-12) We used the term new bull market as early as mid-January 2023 when lower inflation turbocharged the rebound. Hence, we focused on when a) inflation turned unexpectedly higher and b) the Fed turned less dovish. As we pointed out during the last few weeks, the situation might be very different, with severe consequences for Bitcoin - that’s why our analysis below might be of the utmost importance.

👇4-12) Read the full report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/fake-dip-important-bitcoin-chart-traders-watching

#BTC

Is This #Bitcoin Indicator Predicting A Crash???

👇1-11) We have been expecting a severe Bitcoin correction, and many of our @10x_Research subscribers either closed out their longs at 68,300 or some even went short. The signs were all there that the Bitcoin bull market was losing momentum. Now everybody is asking how steep the fall will be.

👇2-11) The average Bitcoin ETF buyer is now underwater. Many institutional investors will struggle to justify allocating more capital to those ETFs without an immediate upside catalyst, such as the halving. Despite brand names such as @BlackRock leading the ETF field, many portfolio managers likely had an uphill battle when they asked for Bitcoin ETF risk limits.

👇3-11) The indicator below could predict much lower Bitcoin prices, we explain why in the report (hopefully this indicator is wrong...) -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-indicator-predicting-crash

#BTC

#Bitcoin -> As we wrote yesterday, "We expect more unwinding as the average Bitcoin ETF buyer will be underwater when Bitcoin trades below $57,300. This will likely lower prices to our target levels and cause a -25% to -29% correction from the $73,000 top - hence our price target of $52,000/$55,000 during the last three weeks. There might also be a period of consolidation instead of a snapback rally - stay tuned." -> Why we turned bearish on April 18: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/hidden-factor-send-bitcoin-plummeting-5200055000

#BTC

Massive #Bitcoin ETF outflows last night… so far reported $-300m… almost $1bn since the halving … lots of macro tourists in Bitcoin riding the “halving wave.” As we wrote yesterday, Bitcoin is trading at levels that are associated with the average entry price for the $11bn of Bitcoin ETF buyers -> read here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-correction-different-3-previous-ones

#BTC

Why This #Bitcoin Correction IS Very Different Than the 3 Previous Ones

👇1-14) Bitcoin has another 20% correction within a larger bull market. @10x_Research is the only crypto research team that has accurately called all three 20% corrections (August 2023, January 2024, and March/April 2024) since the 5th Bitcoin bull market started officially on June 25, 2023. At that point, Bitcoin had made a new one-year high for the first time in a year (see our report from July 2023).

👇2-14) However, this correction is very different, as institutional investors have a risk management approach that differs from most retail traders. Based on our estimates, the average entry price of the US Bitcoin ETF holders is approximately $57,300—potentially even 1-2% higher - a level that Bitcoin prices are approaching fast - as we predicted.

👇3-14) Bitcoin's new one-year high has validated our early January 2023 prediction for the start of a potential new bull market. This positive trend is further reinforced by Bitcoin's proximity to our halving price projection of $63,160 (the actual price of $63,491), which we forecasted on October 28, 2022.

👇4-14) Our 2023 Christmas year-end target of $45,000 was almost achieved (the actual price was $43,613). While we called already on November 28, 2023 (still one of our best TV interviews), for a price target of $57,000 for the post-ETF approval period, we ramped up this target to $70,000 on February 1, 2024, when Bitcoin traded just at $40,000.

👇5-14) This is Bitcoin's first correction with a lot of institutional capital at risk, and there are other factors to consider -> Read the full report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-correction-different-3-previous-ones

#BTC

April 19, 2024: Why Bitcoin May Fall to $52,000

https://10xresearch.co/videos/

Summary:
The primary driver for the recent Bitcoin price rally was the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, which has now dried up over the past 4-5 weeks. The market internals have become weaker, with funding rates decreasing significantly, indicating a lack of speculative demand. The upside drivers for Bitcoin are no longer present, and the market is facing a risk-off environment, leading to a potential correction to the mid-50,000s. The impact of the Bitcoin halving event may not be as bullish as previously expected, as the miners are likely to sell their inventory after the halving, offsetting the reduced supply.

Macro factors, such as high inflation and interest rate hikes, have a more significant impact on Bitcoin’s price than the halving event itself. Bitcoin has not performed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, as it has sold off during these events, suggesting a more significant overhanging issue. The drying up of ETF inflows is a crucial signal, as it indicates a lack of demand from retail investors, who are typically the target audience for these products.

10x Research has taken a cautious stance, selling their tech stock positions and remaining on the side-lines with Bitcoin, waiting for the market to stabilize before potentially re-entering. A potential correlation exists between the Bitcoin futures funding rate compression and the reduced ETF inflows, suggesting a potential offset of margin trading positions. The speculative bubble in the altcoin market, particularly in Korea, has also deflated, with trading volumes returning to average volumes.

#BTC

Bitcoin Reassessed: Tracking Our Changing Views Over Recent Months
Below, we summarize the evolution in our thinking over the past few months. Our regular newsletters (or trading strategy reports) offer a detailed day-to-day analysis. Still, this summary focuses on insights from various TV interviews in which we have participated recently. These interviews have yielded many important lessons.

As we noted in our newsletter reports during recent weeks, Bitcoin may be at a critical juncture.

1-7) April 19, 2024: Why Bitcoin May Fall to $52,000 https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-reassessed-tracking-changing-views-recent-months

#BTC

Bitcoin Is Grinding Lower – 10 Catalysts Traders Are Watching

👇1-13) Some argue that ‘time in the market’ is more important than ‘timing the market.’ This has undoubtedly been the case if you have been early in the Bitcoin game. When assets mature, looking for catalysts becomes more important for new investors.

👇2-13) Consider this: By the end of 2012, nearly 50% of all Bitcoins had been mined, giving everybody a huge advantage early on. By the end of 2017, almost 80% had been mined, and this was when prices were still low. Now, 93.8% of Bitcoin has been mined.

👇3-13) Conversely, those who entered the Bitcoin market during the last few years faced a much higher entry price with diminishing cycle returns. Companies (and assets) often experience a period of waning returns themselves. Whereas young companies thrive, mature companies grow slower. The same principle applies to Bitcoin, and it's crucial to be aware of this when considering your investment strategy - hence the importance of identifying and reacting to catalysts.

👇4-13) Read the report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-grinding-lower-10-catalysts-traders-watching

#BTC

The Next 24 Hours Could Signal If #Bitcoin Is Heading To 52,000

1-9) New risks are emerging, and Bitcoin could decline from our projected range of 52,000 to 55,000. Previously, we have pointed out various market structure data points for why this might occur. As we pointed out yesterday, Bitcoin miner revenues are falling short, which could signal that Bitcoin’s fair value is quite a bit lower.

2-9) Read the full note here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/next-24-hours-signal-bitcoin-heading-52000

#BTC

#Bitcoin Miner Revenues Explode Thanks to Runes: Should You Load Up on Miners?

👇1-12) Bitcoin miner revenues have exploded with the launch of Runes, a new fungible token standard created by creative organelles. Runes allows people to inscribe arbitrary data on Bitcoin-like art. Runes remind us of Ordinals, which had an outsized impact on miners' revenues in late 2023 and early 2024 and was associated with a golden opportunity for Bitcoin mining companies. In later Q3, we made super aggressive mining calls that paid off (here).

👇2-12) Ordinals, unique identification numbers assigned to each satoshi on the Bitcoin blockchain, have sparked a resurgence in on-chain activity, leading to substantial transaction fees. Miners have reaped the rewards, with over $200m in transaction fees from Ordinals, constituting approximately 20% of their total revenue by February 2024.

👇3-12) Among other factors, this caused Bitcoin mining stocks to rally by +100% to +300% in Q4 2023 as ordinals massively contributed to the rewards for Bitcoin miners. Are Runes a replay of this period, and therefore, a massive rally for publicly listed Bitcoin miners, such as Marathon Digital, awaits?

👇4-12) Full note here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-miner-revenues-explode-thanks-runes-load-miners

#BTC #bitcoin