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Here are the consumer price index (CPI) numbers this morning, June 12, 2024 , as per Bloomberg.
Here are the consumer price index (CPI) numbers this morning, June 12, 2024 , as per Bloomberg.
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Producer Price Index Declines The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on July 13, 2024 that "The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted." The Bureau added: "Product detail: Nearly 60 percent of the May decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 7.1-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for diesel fuel, chicken eggs, electric power, jet fuel, and basic organic chemicals also fell. Conversely, prices for cigarettes rose 3.3 percent. The indexes for hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds and for residual fuels also moved higher. Final demand services: Prices for final demand services were unchanged in May after increasing 0.6 percent in April. In May, the indexes for final demand trade services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 1.4 percent. Product detail: Within the index for final demand services in May, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing jumped 12.2 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing; outpatient care (partial); automobiles and automobile parts retailing; and apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing also advanced. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services fell 4.3 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, and truck transportation of freight also declined. "
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The Producer Price Index, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern today, June 13, 2024, has been described as a pre-indicator of inflation. (Overall, as prices rise for domestic producers, these are expected to be passed on to consumers.) According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer price index has a different composition than the consumer price index released yesterday, June 12, 2024. The BLS explained that one difference is that "the CPI includes within its scope goods and services purchased by domestic consumers and therefore includes imports. " The BLS added: "The PPI, in contrast, does not include imports, because imports are by definition not produced by domestic firms. Imports compose a substantial portion of the CPI, especially within the apparel and new-cars component, and their inclusion in the CPI and exclusion in the PPI for personal consumption causes a substantial difference between the two indexes. A final difference in scope between the PPI and the CPI occurs for services whose prices contain an interest rate component. The CPI’s scope excludes changes in interest rates or interest costs. The scope of the CPI includes services, such as banking services and insurance services, whose prices have an interest rate component, but the interest rate component of these services is not included in the index. The scope of the PPI also encompasses services whose prices include an interest rate component, but this index includes the interest rate component of those prices. Banking services account for approximately 4 percent of the PPI for personal consumption, and insurance services compose 3.8 percent. Within the PPI, changes in interest rates will affect price indexes for banking and insurance. The scope of the CPI includes some banking services, such as ATM fees, and many insurance services; however, the interest rate component of these services is not included. Changes in interest rates therefore do not affect the CPI." Another useful summary is provided by Investopedia below:
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Here is the Federal Reserve's Actual Statement, June 12, 2024: "Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments."
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Here are economic projections from members of the Federal Reserve for their meeting today, June 12, 2024. For more details, see the below link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240612b.htm
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Here’s what the #FederalReserve usually says when interest rates are maintained and what you can EXPECT to hear from them at 2pm today (June 12, 2024): #Inflation remains elevated. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Of course, the Fed also considers geopolitical risks (overseas tensions, war, etc). Let's see what they actually say at 2pm! I would avoid rushing into any new positions this morning. I would wait for the drop. Then make your own informed, carefully considered decisions... Good luck!
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