There are no new narratives or new negative data in the recent crypto market, and more investors are reluctant to buy or sell. Judging from the data in the derivatives market, it is clear that funds are more bearish.

However, being bearish does not necessarily mean an immediate drop. With so much meat in the air, there is no guarantee that the main funds will not drool over them. Now the market liquidity is thin and it has been controlled by the main funds. It is also possible that short selling will lead to a short squeeze and liquidation of contracts.

Investors who bought the bottom at around USD 26,000 are continuing to wait for information on whether BlackRock can pass. Even if it cannot pass in the short term, they can still hold on because they have profits. The same goes for those who have FOMO at high levels. Although they may be trapped, the losses are still within an acceptable range. In addition, they are constantly told by PUA that the bull market is coming and they cannot get on again if they get off, so they are also holding on.

Those who should buy and those who should buy at the bottom have all bought, and those who were prepared to wait and see are still waiting and seeing. This has formed a fragile balance. The macro impact on the overall risk market is not significant at present. CPI, PPI, and unemployment benefit applications are all based on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in July. Although many friends believe that the Federal Reserve has 100% raised interest rates, the market has already anticipated the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, so even if there is a real rate hike, the market reaction will not be very big. But in fact, the game has already begun since June when Powell announced that it would be a pause rather than a skip.

So the best option now is to wait and gradually enter the market when prices fall, and position control needs to be very cautious.

Here is a personal reference. Divide the investable funds into 100 shares, and invest 5 shares for every $1,000 drop in BTC. The personal standards for these five shares are 60%, 30%, and 10%. 60% of the funds are used to buy BTC and ETH, and the proportion is based on your own plan. This is similar to fixed investment assets, which are used to allocate assets with low returns but high certainty, and almost no exit is considered before the big cycle.

More funds are in BTC and ETH. Although the room for growth is limited, it will only triple to $100,000, but it will be relatively stable and suitable for larger funds to get the safest returns.

The next 30% is used to configure the leaders of each sector, such as the leaders of the Defi track, uni, aave, comp, mkr, etc.; the leaders of web3, Fil, etc.; the leaders of L2, op, arb, etc.;

The last 10% is actually used for "gambling", mainly to buy some ALTs at the top of potential tracks to bet on high returns, so the purchase quantity is relatively small, but because ALT is very easy to control, there is a high possibility of sharp rises and falls.

Therefore, allocating a small amount of funds to gamble for greater income possibilities is like buying lottery tickets, but the probability of winning is much higher than lottery tickets. Of course, the last 10% of the funds are not allocated to buying only one ALT, but can be diversified into multiple leading projects in different tracks, preferably projects ranked in the top 100 of CMC. There will be some guarantee and there will also be enough room for growth.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with some friends who like to invest in some new potential coins. In fact, history has taught us many times that in a bear market, we should get more high-quality projects (coin-based returns) so that we can exchange them for more money in a bull market.

Among these investments, 100% of the funds will not be used up, which means that I personally do not think that BTC can fall to $10,000 or lower. In fact, it will be very difficult to test the $16,000 after the collapse of FTX. Unless there is a more vicious explosion in the crypto market, the possibility of a new low is not great. I personally expect that it will be good to use about 60% of the funds in the process of bottom-fishing, which means that the price of BTC will be around $18,000. Then I will divide the remaining funds into two parts. The first part is to increase the investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum after BTC falls below $20,000, and the other part is to chase the high after the confirmed bull market comes.

Of course, these are just personal plans, and do not mean that they must be implemented in this way. Just configure according to your personal investment philosophy. What needs to be said is that I often hear many friends say that they don’t have much capital, and if they bet on BTC and ETH, the possible future returns are too low. They either want to increase leverage or buy ALT at the bottom, but in fact, the risks are quite large, and it is easy to lose the principal. If you really think that the returns of BTC and ETH are too low, high-quality track leaders are also good choices.

You must first consider surviving in the bear market so that you can live better in the bull market. If you can't survive the bear market, no matter how much the bull market rises, it will have nothing to do with you.

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