1. Today is Tuesday, let me talk about three points first

1. Let's talk about the market. Yesterday, the market rose slightly, but was soon suppressed again, indicating that both the long and short sides were quite anxious. The current position is very awkward, and there is no further decline, indicating that the market is still bullish, and many people (including me) still think that the rebound will come; but at the same time, the rise is relatively weak, which makes people feel that this wave has reached the top. When the market is divided, it is also the time to take a direction, so wait patiently. In addition, let's talk about Wright. This week is the last week of April. At present, the monthly line of April is basically flat. March was flat. If April is flat again, the pressure left for May and June will be very large. We will wait and see.

2. RIF’s rise. Yesterday, RIF saw a rise. It is not clear what event drove it. As a concept of Bitcoin ecology, RIF’s rapid rise in a short period of time will definitely attract the attention of speculators in the current weak market. If you want to speculate, you can pay attention to other Bitcoin ecological tokens, such as STX, T, etc.

3. Cancun upgrade and arb. Recently, arb first rose sharply, but recently the market fell and it also fell sharply. There are mainly two logics: 1. The main logic is the Cancun upgrade. In simple terms, the Cancun upgrade is an ETH upgrade that is beneficial to the arb ecosystem and the OP ecosystem. L2 has been hyping this expectation before, but a recent conference call revealed that the Cancun upgrade may be postponed, so this main logic will disappear in the short term; 2. The secondary logic is the rise and fall of the market. When the market rose before, it happened to hype the benefits of the Cancun upgrade for L2, and the recent market decline coincided with the postponement of the Cancun upgrade. Investment advice: The Cancun upgrade is a very important upgrade. Everyone must pay close attention to the specific time of the Cancun upgrade. It will definitely bring a very obvious structural market to L2. The specific tokens are OP and arb.

2. There are less than 100 days left before $LTC halving. Will the price of LTC rise after the halving?

If history repeats itself, LTC prices may begin to rise in the wake of the halving, which is currently just over three months away.

As Litecoin approaches its next halving event, there are signs that the coin’s price could surge again. The next Litecoin halving is expected to occur before August 3, 2023.

A halving event is a programmed change in the rate of new coin supply in a cryptocurrency blockchain. For Bitcoin and Litecoin, their halving cycle occurs every four years. This means that the block reward for mining a new block on the Litecoin blockchain will be reduced from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. This will reduce the number of new tokens by half, creating scarcity and pushing up the price of LTC.

Historically, Litecoin halvings have always led to a surge in Litecoin prices. Before the last halving event in 2019, Litecoin surged by about 375%. Despite the brutal bear market in 2018, LTC prices peaked at $143 in June 2019. Similarly, in 2015, LTC prices surged by 440% before the halving event.

3. Why do we say that the market is about to usher in a carnival?

The Federal Reserve announced its last interest rate hike on May 4. Currently, the market has two expectations:

1. Raise interest rates by 25 basis points and then announce a halt to rate hikes.

2. Do not raise interest rates, and then announce a halt to interest rate hikes.

Either result will be a huge positive impact on the financial market. Historical data shows that stopping interest rate hikes will lead to a stage of financial recovery.

So I think there is a high probability that the market carnival will begin in May.

4. Share a method of risk-free arbitrage in the cryptocurrency circle

Moving bricks:

The same currency is arbitrage in different exchanges. The prices of different currencies are different in different exchanges, including the price difference between exchanges and decentralized exchanges. However, quantitative software is needed. In 2017, when the currency circle was immature, the price difference between exchanges could reach 5%, which was really a paradise for arbitrageurs. There is still a price difference now, but the threshold is relatively high. It needs to be the price difference between the on-chain and centralized exchanges, which is large, and the threshold has become higher.

Cash-futures arbitrage:

There are some altcoins in the cryptocurrency circle that have price differences and funding rates between spot and perpetual contracts under extreme market conditions. Funding rate can be understood as the interest you need to pay when you open a contract. If the short position has more funds, the short position will pay interest to the long position. If the long position has more funds, the long position will pay interest to the short position. The funding rate is charged every 8 hours.

The operation method is (for example, pie):

In the case of long short positions, if you buy 10,000 yuan of BTC in spot trading, you can sell 10,000 yuan of BTC in contract trading, ensuring that both parties have the same amount of funds. You can earn the fees and the price difference, which is a risk-free arbitrage, but the operation is difficult, and you need to prevent black swan events. The amount of funds required is relatively large.

Arbitrage between fiat currency and crypto-to-cryptocurrency:

This requires becoming a U merchant, who will go to the market to buy bitcoins and sell them in fiat currency. There will be a price difference in the middle. Of course, the operation in the middle will be more complicated, but it can be regarded as a risk-free arbitrage method. The same disadvantage: a large amount of funds are required.