Predicted Bitcoin spot ETF approval time update:
1. On November 17, 2023, the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF application (the market has no expectation of further interest rate hikes)
2. Approved Bitcoin spot ETF application in January 2024 (the Fed will no longer raise interest rates)
3. Bitcoin spot ETF will take effect in April 2024 and trading will be opened (before Bitcoin halving)
4. At the end of April 2024, Bitcoin blocks will begin to halve, mining costs will double, and mining prices will gradually become price support
5. In June 2024, the Fed will enter a rate cut cycle and implement a monetary easing policy. (Market expectation 80% probability)
6. Bitcoin will start a bull market for more than a year in July 2024 (after the adjustment after halving and the expectation of monetary easing in the market)
There are two main reasons for the update:
1. On October 26, US GDP>CPI, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been further realized in the risk market. Of course, through this quota, it can also be considered that the bull market has started
2. The Fed's interest rate monitor shows that the interest rate cut has been advanced. By June 20, the probability of maintaining or lowering the interest rate has reached more than 90%
Finally, I need to remind you that the pullback before and after each halving of Bitcoin is not groundless. The strange thing is that there are black swans before and after each halving of Bitcoin. From the previous history, the pullback range is 20%+, so you must improve your risk resistance before and after the halving. However, there are opportunities in the market where there is danger. The previous price will be almost like a straight line in the next bull market$BTC
1. On November 17, 2023, the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF application (the market has no expectation of further interest rate hikes)
2. Approved Bitcoin spot ETF application in January 2024 (the Fed will no longer raise interest rates)
3. Bitcoin spot ETF will take effect in April 2024 and trading will be opened (before Bitcoin halving)
4. At the end of April 2024, Bitcoin blocks will begin to halve, mining costs will double, and mining prices will gradually become price support
5. In June 2024, the Fed will enter a rate cut cycle and implement a monetary easing policy. (Market expectation 80% probability)
6. Bitcoin will start a bull market for more than a year in July 2024 (after the adjustment after halving and the expectation of monetary easing in the market)
There are two main reasons for the update:
1. On October 26, US GDP>CPI, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been further realized in the risk market. Of course, through this quota, it can also be considered that the bull market has started
2. The Fed's interest rate monitor shows that the interest rate cut has been advanced. By June 20, the probability of maintaining or lowering the interest rate has reached more than 90%
Finally, I need to remind you that the pullback before and after each halving of Bitcoin is not groundless. The strange thing is that there are black swans before and after each halving of Bitcoin. From the previous history, the pullback range is 20%+, so you must improve your risk resistance before and after the halving. However, there are opportunities in the market where there is danger. The previous price will be almost like a straight line in the next bull market$BTC