Predicted Bitcoin spot ETF passing time update
1. The SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF application on November 17, 2023 (the market has no expectations of continued interest rate hikes)
2. Apply for Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024 (the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates)
3. In April 2024, the Bitcoin spot ETF will take effect and start trading (before the Bitcoin halving)
4. At the end of April 2024, the number of Bitcoin blocks will begin to be halved, the mining cost will double, and the mining price will gradually become a price support
5. In June 2024, the Federal Reserve began to enter an interest rate cutting cycle and implement monetary easing policies. (Market expectation is 80% probability)
6. In July 2024, Bitcoin will start a bull market that lasts for more than a year (after the adjustment after the halving and the expectation of monetary easing, it will be realized in the market)
There are two main reasons for the update:
1. On October 26, U.S. GDP>CPI, interest rate cut expectations have been further realized in the risk market. Of course, this indicator can also be used to believe that the bull market has begun.
2. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor shows that the interest rate cut is ahead of schedule, and the probability of maintaining interest rates or cutting interest rates by June 20 is over 90%.
Finally, I need to remind you that the corrections before and after each Bitcoin halving are not unfounded. What is strange is that black swans occur before and after each Bitcoin halving. From the previous history, the correction amplitude has been 20%+. Therefore, you must improve your ability to resist risks before and after the halving. However, when the market is in danger, there are opportunities. The previous price will look like a straight line in the next bull market.
My next article "Bitcoin Halving Cycle Analysis in 2024 (Market)" will provide detailed analysis, remember to follow me
1. The SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF application on November 17, 2023 (the market has no expectations of continued interest rate hikes)
2. Apply for Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024 (the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates)
3. In April 2024, the Bitcoin spot ETF will take effect and start trading (before the Bitcoin halving)
4. At the end of April 2024, the number of Bitcoin blocks will begin to be halved, the mining cost will double, and the mining price will gradually become a price support
5. In June 2024, the Federal Reserve began to enter an interest rate cutting cycle and implement monetary easing policies. (Market expectation is 80% probability)
6. In July 2024, Bitcoin will start a bull market that lasts for more than a year (after the adjustment after the halving and the expectation of monetary easing, it will be realized in the market)
There are two main reasons for the update:
1. On October 26, U.S. GDP>CPI, interest rate cut expectations have been further realized in the risk market. Of course, this indicator can also be used to believe that the bull market has begun.
2. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor shows that the interest rate cut is ahead of schedule, and the probability of maintaining interest rates or cutting interest rates by June 20 is over 90%.
Finally, I need to remind you that the corrections before and after each Bitcoin halving are not unfounded. What is strange is that black swans occur before and after each Bitcoin halving. From the previous history, the correction amplitude has been 20%+. Therefore, you must improve your ability to resist risks before and after the halving. However, when the market is in danger, there are opportunities. The previous price will look like a straight line in the next bull market.
My next article "Bitcoin Halving Cycle Analysis in 2024 (Market)" will provide detailed analysis, remember to follow me