Bitcoin bullish sentiment is stronger than expected. Today, altcoins are focusing on ARB and Binance. Will RWA take off? Which is true or false in the IBTC incident? What are the implications of Celestia $TIA's coin issuance? dYdX surged after recommendation, what do you think of the future market?

老K的比特币行情洞察 · 2023-10-26T10:24:24.000Z

There is no time to write about the market situation, so I will just post a picture. IBTC incident, which one is true or false? Recently, the market has been dominated by news-based currency speculation, and everyone's attention has been focused on looking for any news that can confirm the approval of spot ETFs. The bookmakers have also taken advantage of the psychology of retail investors. True and false news are flying all over the sky. First, there was Cointelegraph’s fake news to deceive people, and then last night, the DTCC website jumped left and right to play with the market. What happened the night before yesterday? Guest V is here to give you a clue. The first reason that triggered yesterday’s violent pull is the final ruling of the US court on the Grayscale case, which can be understood as allowing the SEC to re-examine Grayscale’s application for converting GBTC into a#BTCspot ETF;

There is no time to describe the market situation in words, so I’ll just post a picture.
IBTC incident, which is true and which is false?
Recently, the market has been focusing on news-based cryptocurrency speculation, and everyone’s attention is focused on finding out if there is any news that can indirectly confirm the approval of the spot ETF. The market makers have also taken advantage of the psychology of retail investors, and true and false news are flying everywhere. First there was the Cointelegraph fake news scam, and then there was the DTCC website jumping around to fool the market last night.
What happened the night before yesterday? Vke will tell you about it.
The first reason that triggered yesterday’s violent stock pull was the final ruling of the U.S. court on the Grayscale case, which can be understood as asking the SEC to review Grayscale’s application to convert GBTC into a#BTCspot ETF;
The second is that Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst tweeted that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has been listed on the DTCC exchange-traded fund (ETF) list with the trading code IBTC. He also said that this is "a link in promoting the listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs."
What does that mean?
DTCC is a depository trust and clearing corporation that is responsible for clearing Nasdaq trades.
If BlackRock's ETF is approved by the SEC, iShares will also be listed on the DTCC. This is part of the established process, but BlackRock, as the king of ETFs, has prepared all the processes after approval in advance. After the news was released, it immediately aroused the public's reverie, thinking that it was stable, and this was the evidence that BlackRock's ETF must have been quietly approved internally!
But what was dramatic was that at 11pm, BlackRock's IBTC was removed from the DTCC's ETF list, and the market fell. After a period of downtime on the DTCC website in the early morning, IBTC came back at 7am! ​​At the same time, they also said that everyone should not make a fuss, our list is useless, and it is just a standard practice for us to list the ETFs that have not passed, and IBTC has been on the list since August this year.
The news of IBTC being listed on DTCC broke out, then it was removed from IBTC, and then it was put back online, and then it was notified that it would be online in August. Retail investors are being made a fool of. Will they apologize again and say that it was the intern's mistake?
Although we are angry, let’s analyze the IBTC incident rationally. Why did DTCC itself say that this list is useless? Ni Da @Phyrex_Ni’s analogy is very appropriate:
If the SEC's approval of the BlackRock ETF is like getting a marriage certificate, then IBTC's listing on DTCC is like having a child. The normal order is to get the marriage certificate first and then have the child, so that the child can be registered.
You can have a child before getting married, and then get the marriage certificate. BlackRock is tough and confident. It holds the wedding banquet after having a child, mainly to save time. But even if the child is born, it does not mean that the marriage certificate has been obtained. What is important is not the child, but whether the marriage certificate has been approved by the SEC!
It has already joined DTCC in August, but it is only now cooperating with the market to release the news. This timing and repeated operations are really intriguing. It is highly likely that the market maker chose this bullish news and cooperated with the hype of ETFs to carry out the short-selling operation, which is a complete manipulation of the market. The news is harmful.
Some people believe in conspiracy theories that the market makers have set up a nest with ETFs, repeatedly fishing and harvesting retail investors. First, the fake news from Cointelegraph was exposed, and then the old information that DTCC would launch IBTC in August was released to expose the shorts. After everyone has turned their minds to more and long orders have accumulated, there will be a final exposure of longs. By then, the one who is exposed as an air force is you, and the one who is exposed as a long force is, eh, still you.
Although everything is possible, Vke’s point of view is that the market makers are not monolithic, and various forces are also playing games with each other. Moreover, the market makers cannot influence the decision of the SEC. Some people may say that BlackRock is the biggest market maker! So do you think BlackRock is interested in our small profit from the liquidation? If the SEC approves the ETF earlier, wouldn’t it be great for BlackRock to earn the fund management fee without doing anything?
So don’t predict the script. All we have to do is follow the trend.
TIA airdrop, what does it reveal?
The modular blockchain network Celestia will be launched on the mainnet soon, and the slaves who have been working on the testnet before have finally seen the light of day.
A total of 6000w was airdropped this time, 1500w was received, and 4500w remained.
The remaining 45 million is divided equally among 192,000 accounts. Basically, each account has 4500 / 19.2 = 234 more TIAs, and the number of allocations is about 3.2 times the previous amount.
This is a comparison chart of Celestia's circulating market value against other public chains. I think a circulating market value similar to Sui is more reasonable. The current over-the-counter price is about this. The current over-the-counter price is about 1.8u, which is really good news in a bear market.
    
Celestia's airdrop this time shows us the trend of future airdrops, which are high-quality, multi-chain and multi-dimensional, and the willingness to deposit money and consume GAS. In addition, Celestia has airdropped 15K TIA per person to developers who have made outstanding contributions on GitHub. This will also be a new way of contributing. It seems that I have to start learning code!
I would also like to remind those who want to invest in new coins at the secondary level that from the perspective of token economics, Celestia's token distribution is relatively average, with investors and the team receiving more than half of the tokens, and 33% of these tokens will be unlocked after one year. TIA may be pulled up very high after listing, but in the long run, the selling pressure from institutions is still relatively large, so remember to stop profits in time for short-term profits.
dYdX officially releases and open-sources its dYdX Chain code
In the previous article we recommended potential coins, we focused on dYdX. Congratulations to those who got on board and achieved a 20-point profit in two days at the peak.
dYdX's V4 version will be built on its own chain, dYdX chain, rather than Ethereum. On the 23rd, the dYdX community passed the "Connecting the Community and the Reward Treasury" proposal with a support rate of 99.99%. The proposal intends to connect the dYdX community and the reward treasury from Ethereum to the dYdX Chain.
This migration requires 4 steps to ensure that activities on dYdX Chain can be funded by dYdX Chain governance in a timely manner. The four steps include:
1. End of v3 rewards
2. Upgrade the Treasury Contract
3. dYdX Chain validators are advised to credit their vesting accounts on v4
4. The bridge has released ethDYDX.
It has just been launched, so the dYdX market may have just started. If it develops well in the future, we can also pay attention to Cosmos, which provides support for the dYdX chain. The technical community has used cosmos and says it is good, but the token is ATOM, which has not been empowered. Let's see what happens next.