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Disclaimer: The following content is only a sharing of personal subjective opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.

At the beginning of the analysis article, I directly poured cold water on the bulls. It is very necessary to advise the bulls to stay rational (although I also hold long orders now, haha, but it is only for the short and medium term). I put the basis for this in the last link of this article. The data part is for your reference.

Let’s talk about the conclusion directly: the current purchasing power on the market is not good. The reason for this pull is the stimulation of the news. Just like a person who doesn’t want to run, if you push him one step and he takes two steps, it’s like squeezing toothpaste... more The big reason is that the supply is too small, not that the purchasing power is too much. In fact, there is an essential difference. Just imagine, if you don’t want to sell, is it the same as if I don’t want to buy? This actually means that more funds overall are still needed. The state of leaving and not being attracted is just a good thing that brings a few steps upward in the short term, and it is not much. The long-term holdings of BTC are as high as 77% of the total circulation, and more BTC will rely on the 2024 halving. In keeping with the expectations of ETFs, the crypto market environment is still lacking in liquidity, and the narrative environment has not changed. There are no outstanding narratives to attract funds, including those in the socialFi track that have been very popular recently. Things are more about attracting users by taking advantage of them. Users are more likely to just take advantage of it and run away instead of actually using your product. What I can feel in these environments is that the currency circle At this stage, we are indeed at the end of our rope.

So the current environment, in fact, is not optimistic in my opinion.

Let me start my technical analysis.

First the conclusion:

BTC is expected to be shorted around 28900-29100. BTC can be considered to be long at 27050 and 26850, or those with multiple orders can add positions here to see 28900-29100. ETH is expected to be shorted around 1815-1835. ETH can be considered to be long at 1683 and 1695, or those with multiple orders can add positions here to see 1815-1835.

Here is the argument:

The daily charts of ETH and BTC are as follows: In line with last night’s news that the SEC lost the case, BTC and ETH pulled out a big positive line, and the high points of both just hit the first rebound level, Fibonacci 0.5.

Question 1: Is BTC's wave B completed or not? Where can it go? (This question will be reserved for later discussion)

As shown in the figure below, I have given the pressure zone above BTC and ETH in the market analysis on August 20, which has been verified.

So for question 1 above, has BTC’s wave B been completed or not? How far can it go? My answer is that it has not been completed.

This is the 1-hour candlestick chart of BTC and ETH.

The most obvious basis is that the volume increases and the price rises, while the volume decreases. Unless I see an obvious engulfment or even a penetration, the long orders near 26,000 and 1,640 below may need to be considered for taking profits. However, in any case, it is necessary to take profits here to some extent, but it is not necessary to take profits for all of them.

So can you short sell here? Yes, you can, but only short sell.

I believe that the current stage is in the relay consolidation of the intermediate rebound process, that is, a short-term shock in the supply zone, which will not exceed the demand zone below. The Fibonacci 0.5 and 618 below the ETH and BTC charts are both positions that can be considered for covering long positions below, especially the high point of the consolidation range that BTC has broken through, 26800.

Then for the short orders at some better positions in the current supply area, such as near 1740 and 28000, the take-profit can be set at the long order covering position.

So, for the mid-term level long orders near 1640 and 26000, where can we see after adding positions?

It is still what I have been emphasizing in the previous issues, BTC 28900-29130, ETH: 1816-1835.

Basis: BTC's rebound here is consistent with the rebound amplitude of wave B in the wave theory, and there is the support of VAL and POC in the dense trading area, that is, there is Fibonacci 618, trend line and dense trading volume. The resistance resonance is composed of the trend line and dense trading volume. According to the on-chain data, BTC's 24-hour realized price distribution also shows that 800,000 BTC are trapped near 28,830, that is, there is 800,000 BTC selling pressure here. Although ETH does not have the support of the three-wave correction, the basis for resistance resonance is also complete, Fibonacci 618, trend line, dense trading volume, ETH's most powerful basis is the trend line, you can see a 123 rule, complete 2, backtest trend line, and BTC is wave B. $BTC $ETH