Why do coins with heavy positions never rise, while coins with light positions or those that missed out on opportunities always rise?

In fact, I also like to study early coins, but I have encountered this situation recently, so I feel that I have taken some detours and make a reflection summary. The reasons are as follows:

1. Investing is against human nature. Humans are naturally risk-averse and dare not invest heavily in coins that they do not understand.

2. If the heavily invested coin does not rise, it is because this coin was the leader in the past or had a good performance. Everyone is optimistic about it, and you are optimistic about it, so you feel safe. At the same time, this coin has reached an overvalued or normal valuation, but there are many locked-in positions in the short term, and it must be adjusted before it has a chance to rise, so the trend is very slow.

3. The coins with light positions are rising every day, because it is a new concept and a new narrative, and no one can understand it. They have no experience, don’t know what the future will be like, and don’t dare to hold heavy positions because they don’t feel safe. So the coins are light, and everyone is just watching the show. The dog dealer is just pulling the price for you to watch, and the price will rise to your heart’s content.

4. So is there any way to crack it? In fact, it all comes down to a problem of cognition. People with top cognition can catch the dark horse in the early stage. Dark horse coins are generally not popular. If you dare to hold a large position, you must have gone through several days or weeks of in-depth research. If you see some coins being discussed on Twitter and are also rising sharply, you have no time to study them at this time. By the time you have studied them, they have already increased by 10 times. Be cautious when participating.

5. Whether you are doing music movies or investing, you must be independent. The process of independent thinking is the process of understanding. Only what you understand is your own. The singers I like more, Xu Song and Dao Lang, are all versatile and talented. They are all independent musicians who can write lyrics, compose music, arrange music and sing.

6. Calm down and think about the project you want to invest in. What is the circulating market value and FDV respectively? Has there been a surge in the short term? What is the narrative? How much money and time has the project spent on this project? Is there a risk of running away in the short term? What is its goal? Are there any similar projects in the currency circle to refer to for valuation?

For example, when I was researching DNX, I found that all tokens of the project must be purchased in the secondary market, because it is a POW coin without pre-mining and private ICO, and everyone is equally purchasing in the secondary market. In addition, the project has been developing systems and software tools, and the cost is also very high. It is currently speculated that the project has invested more than 5 million US dollars, and it is highly likely that the market value will exceed 1 billion.

7. Remind yourself all the time and train yourself to be anti-human. Do research clearly before investing, don’t chase when the price goes up, and don’t sell when the price goes down.

8. I personally think that the most difficult thing in the cryptocurrency circle is not how accurate the analysis of the market is, many people can do it. It is not to catch the mainstream currency that has skyrocketed, such as the recent BCH, XRP, and BASE. Even if you catch it, it will be useless and cannot change your fate. It is to pick the last one from hundreds of projects, and then participate heavily, and soon the increase will be dozens or hundreds of times. I also recently realized that many people participated in the early KAS and made tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. Only then did I realize that there is still a big gap between my cognition and others. The gap between my ten times and others’ hundred times is still very large.

9. The most scarce thing in the cryptocurrency world is not the principal, but top-level recognition.

What is top-level cognition? When no one else can make money, they can still use their own cognition to analyze high-potential projects.