Novinky

According to Odaily, the CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates a 24.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates through December. There is a 75.7% likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year. These probabilities were previously 37.9% and 62.1%, respectively, before the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).Looking ahead to January, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 16.5%. Meanwhile, there is a 59.2% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 24.3% probability of a 50 basis point reduction. Prior to the CPI announcement, these probabilities stood at 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6%, respectively. These figures reflect market expectations and potential monetary policy adjustments in response to economic indicators.

According to BlockBeats, on November 13, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari commented on the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Kashkari stated that there are currently no clear signs of rising inflation risks. He emphasized that the more significant concern lies in the potential for the economy to stagnate.Kashkari's remarks come at a time when economic indicators are closely monitored for signs of inflationary pressures. The CPI data, which measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services, is a critical indicator for assessing inflation trends. Despite the absence of immediate inflation threats, Kashkari highlighted the importance of remaining vigilant about economic conditions that could lead to stagnation.The Federal Reserve has been navigating a complex economic landscape, balancing efforts to stimulate growth while keeping inflation in check. Kashkari's comments reflect a cautious approach, acknowledging the challenges of maintaining economic momentum without triggering inflation. As policymakers continue to analyze economic data, the focus remains on ensuring a stable economic environment that supports sustainable growth.

According to BlockBeats, asset management firm VanEck announced on November 13 the launch of its SUI ETN product on the Euronext exchanges in Amsterdam and Paris. This new financial product enables investors to participate in the development of the Sui ecosystem without the need to directly hold SUI tokens.The SUI ETN is now available for trading across 15 European countries, including Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, and Italy. This expansion allows a broader range of investors to engage with the Sui ecosystem, offering a convenient and accessible way to invest in this growing sector. The introduction of the SUI ETN marks a significant step for VanEck in providing innovative investment solutions in the digital asset space.

According to Decrypt, the recent significant increase in Bitcoin's price is attributed to enhanced regulatory clarity in major markets, particularly the United States. Kathleen Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, discussed this development at the Web Summit, highlighting that the reduction in regulatory ambiguity has positively impacted the cryptocurrency market. Breitman emphasized that with clearer regulations, there is potential for more integration of real-world assets with cryptocurrencies, as navigating the regulatory landscape becomes more straightforward.Breitman also pointed out that the adoption of financial instruments like ETFs, prediction markets, and stablecoins is promising for the future of cryptocurrencies. She suggested that these developments could pave the way for new use cases, including mainstream crypto gaming. Additionally, she described meme coins as an extension of NFTs, which help build communities and create a peer-to-peer, stateless nation.Despite the positive outlook, Breitman noted that the cryptocurrency industry has been overcapitalized for several years. She compared this situation to the 19th-century railroad boom, where a lack of standardization led to inefficiencies. In the crypto sector, overcapitalization has resulted in a lack of strong incentives to establish common standards among competing projects. However, with increased regulatory certainty, Breitman hopes for a greater focus on the technical aspects of cryptocurrencies, such as wallet infrastructure.Breitman expressed optimism that more serious players will enter the crypto space as a result of its implicit endorsement by the U.S. government. This endorsement is perceived by the market as a positive signal, potentially leading to further growth and development within the industry.

According to Foresight News, the Russian government's Legislative Activities Committee has moved forward with a cryptocurrency tax bill on November 11. This legislation classifies cryptocurrency as property and establishes distinct tax requirements for individual and corporate miners. Under the new regulations, businesses must register with the Federal Tax Service to legally conduct mining operations, while individuals consuming less than 6,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity per month are exempt from registration.The proposed framework introduces a two-stage taxation model. The first stage involves taxing cryptocurrency upon receipt, with the tax base calculated based on the closing price on major exchanges. The second stage imposes taxes upon sale, with additional taxes applied if the selling price exceeds the initial taxable value. Starting in 2024, individual traders and miners with annual incomes exceeding 2.4 million rubles will be subject to a progressive tax rate ranging from 13% to 22%. Meanwhile, the corporate tax rate is set to increase to 25% in 2025.The Industrial Mining Association estimates that these tax measures could generate 50 billion rubles (approximately $521 million) in annual revenue for the budget.

According to BlockBeats, on November 13, JPMorgan's market team suggested that inflation data is more likely to show an increase rather than a decrease. Despite this, they believe that hotter data this week is unlikely to derail the tone of risk appetite, as investors are not expected to focus solely on one data point. This is because there is another Consumer Price Index (CPI) release before the Federal Reserve's December meeting. However, the team cautioned investors that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has shifted the Fed's focus from the labor market to balancing its dual mandate of employment and inflation. They noted that if CPI or retail sales data indicate a stronger economic growth trajectory while also fueling inflation, it is necessary to pay attention to future developments.JPMorgan believes that investors are unlikely to adopt a cautious portfolio stance until the overall CPI annual rate reaches 3.5%, which they consider a credible threat to the Federal Reserve. They assert that the Fed will only take tightening action if the inflation rate returns to or exceeds 4%. This perspective highlights the importance of monitoring inflation trends and economic indicators closely, as they play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy decisions and investor strategies.

According to Odaily, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown has indicated in a report that the monthly overall inflation data in the United States no longer exerts a significant impact on the markets as it did earlier in the current cycle. This shift is attributed to the Federal Reserve's confidence in inflation progressing towards the 2% target on a sustainable basis over the medium term. Consequently, the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus, making developments in the labor market a key driver for future policy changes.A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal reveals that the overall inflation rate for October is expected to be 2.6%, which is an increase from September's rate of 2.4%. This anticipated rise in inflation underscores the evolving economic landscape and the Federal Reserve's strategic pivot towards labor market conditions as a determinant for policy adjustments. The central bank's approach reflects a broader understanding of economic indicators, emphasizing the importance of employment trends in shaping monetary policy decisions.

According to Foresight News, a website named freerogernow.org, linked to early Bitcoin investor Roger Ver's personal site, is urging supporters to sign an open letter calling for the U.S. government to cease what it describes as an 'unjust prosecution' against him. The site indicates that 830 supporters have already signed, with a cap set at 1,000 signatures. It also provides details about an investigation involving Ver, alleging that IRS agents questioned his tax attorney in 2018 without a search warrant and subsequently filed a lawsuit over communication issues with his lawyer.Roger Ver was arrested in April this year while attending a cryptocurrency conference in Barcelona. He is currently awaiting a decision from a Spanish judge on whether he will be extradited to the United States. If extradited, Ver's case would be the first to go to trial solely on cryptocurrency-related tax charges. After spending a month in jail, Ver was released on bail and has since relocated to Mallorca.

According to Foresight News, the U.S. Department of Justice has announced that Daren Li, a dual citizen of China and Saint Kitts and Nevis, has pleaded guilty to a charge of conspiracy to commit money laundering. This charge is related to his involvement in a cryptocurrency investment scam that generated millions of dollars in illicit proceeds.Daren Li, along with his accomplices, orchestrated a complex scheme involving a network of shell companies and international bank accounts to launder over $73 million obtained from victims of the cryptocurrency investment fraud. The fraudulent operation exploited unsuspecting investors, leading to significant financial losses.Li is scheduled to be sentenced on March 3, 2025, and faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. The case highlights the ongoing challenges and risks associated with cryptocurrency investments, as well as the international efforts required to combat financial crimes in the digital age.

According to PANews, South Korean authorities have apprehended 215 individuals in connection with a large-scale cryptocurrency investment scam. The fraudulent scheme, which promised high returns, deceived approximately 15,000 investors, resulting in losses totaling around 300 billion Korean won (equivalent to $213 million). Among those arrested are 12 key figures, including the mastermind behind the operation, a YouTuber in his 40s with a subscriber base of 620,000.The YouTuber, who played a pivotal role in orchestrating the scam, initially gained prominence by recommending stocks. However, after the stocks he endorsed were suspended from trading in 2020, he shifted his focus to cryptocurrencies. This transition led to significant dissatisfaction among his investment advisory platform's clients, who subsequently demanded refunds. The case highlights the growing concerns over cryptocurrency-related fraud and the need for increased vigilance and regulatory measures to protect investors from such deceptive practices.

According to Foresight News, Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team, announced that Donald Trump has nominated Pete Hegseth for the position of Secretary of Defense. Hegseth is an alumnus of Princeton University and holds a graduate degree from Harvard University. He is a veteran who has served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan, earning two Bronze Star Medals and a Combat Infantryman Badge for his exemplary service. Additionally, Hegseth has been a host on Fox News Channel for eight years.Hegseth has previously made statements related to cryptocurrency, expressing views such as "Trump makes Bitcoin great again" and emphasizing Bitcoin's value as being free from government control. He has also mentioned on Fox News that he does not intend to sell his Bitcoin holdings.

According to Odaily, recent market reports indicate that former President Donald Trump has announced the appointment of Elon Musk and Vivek to lead the newly established Government Efficiency Department. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy to enhance operational effectiveness within governmental structures.The decision to involve Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, is expected to bring innovative approaches to the department, leveraging his experience in technology and business. Vivek, whose full name and background were not disclosed in the initial reports, is anticipated to complement Musk's expertise with his own unique skill set. This collaboration aims to streamline processes and improve the overall efficiency of government operations.The establishment of the Government Efficiency Department reflects a growing trend towards incorporating private sector methodologies into public administration. By appointing leaders with proven track records in innovation and efficiency, the initiative seeks to address longstanding bureaucratic challenges and foster a more agile government framework. Observers are keen to see how this partnership will unfold and what tangible impacts it will have on government performance.

According to Odaily, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has proposed a third bond buyback this year, coinciding with a rise in Bitcoin prices and the recent US election results. The government announced on Tuesday its intention to repurchase a series of notes maturing between 2027 and 2034, with an outstanding principal amount exceeding $2.5 billion. The statement did not specify how the transaction would be financed. However, a source familiar with the matter indicated that the debt buyback would depend on new financing, the details of which have not yet been disclosed as they remain confidential.Since former President Donald Trump won the US presidential election last week, El Salvador's debt return rate has reached 4.7%, outperforming all emerging market countries except Ukraine. Investors have long believed that a second term for Trump would aid Bukele in securing support for loans from the International Monetary Fund. Katrina Butt, an economist at AllianceBernstein in New York, commented, "The market views El Salvador as a 'Trump trade,' with expectations that a closer personal relationship between Bukele and Trump will benefit El Salvador. They are unlikely to have enough cash for such a buyback and may need to enter the market to finance the transaction."

According to Blockworks, the regulatory landscape for the cryptocurrency industry is anticipated to shift following the recent election, potentially impacting companies like Exodus, a software wallet provider. Exodus CEO JP Richardson expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after the company's public listing was unexpectedly delayed in May. Richardson stated that Exodus had been transparent and responsive throughout the SEC's review process, making the delay surprising and confusing.Elliot Chun, a partner at advisory firm Architect Partners, criticized the SEC's approach, describing it as lacking a clear framework and targeting every crypto company. An SEC spokesperson declined to comment on individual companies. Richardson, who supported Donald Trump, shared Exodus's story with the president-elect, hoping for a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration.Veronica McGregor, Exodus's legal chief, was involved in the Crypto4Harris group's efforts and expressed optimism about working with the incoming administration. She emphasized that cryptocurrency should not be a partisan issue and highlighted the need for a shift in regulatory attitudes and approaches. McGregor argued that trying to fit new technologies into outdated legal frameworks is counterproductive and harmful to business and innovation.Exodus recently submitted a response to the SEC's latest comment letter and is awaiting further instructions. Despite the anticipated changes under Trump's presidency, Richardson acknowledged that SEC reforms would not occur immediately. He expects the administration to begin establishing a regulatory foundation aligned with campaign promises within the first year by bringing in the right experts.The ongoing discussions around regulatory changes in the crypto industry underscore the challenges faced by companies like Exodus as they navigate evolving legal landscapes. The focus remains on ensuring that regulatory bodies adapt to new technologies and business models to foster innovation and growth.

According to BlockBeats, recent market reports indicate that Italy has decided to set a cap on its cryptocurrency tax rate at 28%. This decision marks a significant reduction from the previously proposed rate of 42%. The adjustment reflects Italy's approach to regulating the burgeoning cryptocurrency market, aiming to balance taxation with the need to foster innovation and growth within the sector. The move to cap the tax rate at 28% is seen as a strategic effort to make Italy more competitive in the global cryptocurrency landscape. By lowering the tax burden, the Italian government hopes to attract more investors and businesses to its market, potentially boosting economic activity and technological advancement. This decision aligns with broader trends in Europe, where countries are increasingly looking to establish clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets. The reduction in the proposed tax rate also highlights the ongoing debate within Italy regarding the best approach to cryptocurrency regulation. While some policymakers advocate for higher taxes to increase government revenue, others argue that lower rates will encourage compliance and stimulate market growth. The 28% cap represents a compromise between these competing perspectives, aiming to strike a balance that benefits both the government and the cryptocurrency community. As the global cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, Italy's decision may influence other countries considering similar regulatory measures. By setting a precedent with its tax policy, Italy could pave the way for more standardized approaches to cryptocurrency taxation across Europe and beyond. This development underscores the importance of regulatory clarity in fostering a healthy and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.

According to BlockBeats, the New York Federal Reserve's Center for Microeconomic Data released its October 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations on November 12. The survey revealed that the one-year inflation expectation in the United States fell to 2.87% in October, marking the lowest level since October 2020. This is a decrease from the previous value of 3.00%. Additionally, the median uncertainty for three-year and five-year inflation expectations has also declined.The survey highlights a slight decrease in household expectations for short-term, medium-term, and long-term inflation. There is also an improvement in labor market expectations, with a reported decrease in both the unemployment rate and the risk of unemployment. The median expectation for an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate over the next year has dropped to 34.5%, the lowest since February 2022.Households surveyed expressed increased confidence in finding employment if laid off, indicating an improvement in job market perceptions. Furthermore, views on credit access improved in October, with expectations for future credit access also rising. The likelihood of households failing to make minimum debt payments on time over the next three months has decreased, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on financial stability.

According to Foresight News, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa has announced that despite the Western Cape High Court lifting the preservation order on Banxso (Pty) Ltd, the financial services provider (FSP) license of the South African exchange remains revoked. Banxso is prohibited from conducting any financial services business, and its funds are restricted to facilitating the transfer of clients to other FSCA-authorized financial service providers. The case concerning Banxso is scheduled for a review on December 4, 2024, and the FSCA is actively investigating the activities of Banxso and its management.Previously, Foresight News reported that the FSCA had temporarily revoked Banxso's financial service provider license in October. The regulatory body stated that once the investigation is concluded, it will consider the findings along with Banxso's response before making a final decision, which will be communicated to the public. The ongoing investigation underscores the FSCA's commitment to ensuring compliance and protecting the interests of financial service consumers in South Africa.

According to Odaily, Hong Kong police have released data on online investment scams, revealing a concerning trend. In the first nine months of this year, authorities received 3,468 reports of such scams, resulting in losses totaling approximately HKD 2.2 billion. Although this represents a decrease compared to the same period last year, the number of cases in October surged by 24% compared to September, indicating a potential resurgence. Nearly 40% of these cases involved financial investment products, while 35% were related to virtual assets.One of the most significant losses in a virtual asset scam amounted to approximately HKD 78.47 million. The victim, a female executive at a cryptocurrency company, was deceived into participating in a video call to discuss investment details. During the call, her electronic wallet account password was stolen, leading to the transfer of a substantial sum of money. As virtual asset investments continue to gain popularity, the police are urging investors to remain vigilant to avoid falling victim to such scams.From January to October 2023, the police recorded a total of 5,017 investment scam cases, involving approximately HKD 4.93 billion. Despite the overall decline in the number and value of online investment scams in the first nine months of this year compared to the same period last year, September saw 312 cases with losses amounting to around HKD 187 million, while October experienced 380 cases with losses totaling approximately HKD 248 million.

According to PANews, the South Korean Democratic Party has expressed opposition to the government's proposal to delay the implementation of the virtual asset capital gains tax by two years. Party spokesperson Noh Jong-myun stated their stance against the suggested postponement, which contrasts with recent reports indicating a growing likelihood of deferring the crypto tax implementation to 2027.The Democratic Party's opposition highlights a significant divergence from the government's approach, as discussions around the taxation of virtual assets continue to evolve. The proposal to delay the tax has been a topic of debate, with proponents arguing for more time to prepare the necessary infrastructure and regulations. However, the Democratic Party insists on adhering to the original timeline, emphasizing the importance of establishing a clear tax framework for virtual assets.This development comes amid increasing global scrutiny of cryptocurrency regulations, as governments worldwide grapple with the challenges of integrating digital assets into existing financial systems. The Democratic Party's firm stance underscores the ongoing debate within South Korea regarding the appropriate timing and structure of crypto taxation, reflecting broader concerns about regulatory clarity and market stability.

According to ShibDaily, Thai authorities have arrested four foreign nationals in connection with a cryptocurrency robbery in Phuket. The suspects, identified as Armenian national Arman, 21; Ukrainian nationals Alfred, 18, and Ruslan, 22; and Russian national Mraz, 21, were apprehended at a hotel in Phang Nga Province on November 11. The arrests were made by Phuket’s Kamala Police with the assistance of the Tourist Police, following a warrant issued by the Phuket Provincial Court. The charges include armed robbery, unlawful detention, and coercion.The incident occurred on November 8 when a 23-year-old Ukrainian tourist named Viacheslav was allegedly lured to a meeting by his friend Alfred. Upon arrival, Viacheslav was ambushed by two masked men who attacked him, restrained him with ropes and cable ties, and threatened to break his fingers unless he transferred $500,000 in cryptocurrency. After negotiations, the demand was reduced to $250,000. Following the transfer, the suspects tied Viacheslav to a bed and fled with additional belongings, warning him not to report the incident. Viacheslav managed to escape, gathered photographic evidence from the hotel reception, and reported the crime to the police.The suspects are currently in custody at the Kamala Police Station, facing multiple charges. Thai authorities are continuing their investigation and have emphasized their commitment to protecting tourists and ensuring that those involved in organized crime face strict penalties. This case mirrors a similar incident involving Dean Skurka, CEO of WonderFi Technologies, who was kidnapped in Toronto and held for a $1 million ransom. These incidents underscore the increasing security threats faced by high-profile individuals in the cryptocurrency industry, where significant digital wealth can make them targets for organized crime.