Hello, my name ildario!
I started getting acquainted with cryptocurrency in 2013, when a friend bought 1000 bitcoins (but don't think I'm a friend of a millionaire, as he sold all 1000 bitcoins for $100,000). I myself had about 120 bitcoins, which I lost in margin trading with leverage. I'm not under any illusions. I still feel the pain to this day.
I'm trying to evaluate the future prospects of TON (toncoin) over the next 3-5 years. I bought it at $3, and later added more at $7.20, so today's drop doesn't really bother me. Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, as I'm clearly biased. Think for yourself, and don't risk more than you're willing to lose forever!
Why I'm biased:
1.     I like Pavel Durov (not as a man or a personality, but as a creator of simple yet extremely convenient solutions; under his leadership, I was always on VK, now I'm constantly on Telegram, which for me is the perfect tool). I involuntarily view those who haven’t installed Telegram as dinosaurs.
2.     Still, I hold TON and want to believe in the best, so I look for positives everywhere. It's like being the wife of a handsome addict, telling her friends, "but he's not like everyone else."
What I think about TON (this is very subjective, and I could be bitterly mistaken):
1.     Huge minus. TON is subject to Bitcoin's volatility (I'm 99% sure of this), general fever, and fear. That is, Bitcoin down, TON down; Bitcoin up, then TON up. So, I understand that a fivefold drop with the start of the "crypto winter" is a very real scenario.
2.     Huge plus. TON is directly linked to a real business generating income from advertising (therefore, in my mind, TON is a mix between a hedgehog and a viper, in a good sense). Yes, Telegram is a profit generator. Moreover, there’s a chance that the cash flow in 2024 will be positive. For me, TON is practically a "semi-stock" (subjectively, SEC, do not read this), not traditional crypto.
3.     Huge plus. TON is targeting Asian users. Asians are known gamblers and can drive up the price of anything they touch. The developer group in the TON network ecosystem called TON Foundation announced a partnership with the Hong Kong cryptocurrency exchange HashKey. Reportedly, the exchange's infrastructure will be used for purchasing cryptocurrency through the built-in Telegram crypto wallet for users in the Asia-Pacific region.
4.     Huge plus. Telegram has its own wallet (currently supports USDT, Bitcoin, USDT). Combined with the news about entering Asia, we are potentially seeing a HUGE possible increase in active Telegram users from Asia. I wouldn’t be surprised if in 3-5 years, Telegram gains an additional +1 billion users of Asian descent. Is there a chance for TON to be boosted by these users? Definitely, although there are risks of being blocked by laws.
5.     Huge plus. Telegram clearly plans to monetize itself more (active steps are being taken), and they do it carefully, not letting just anyone in, even setting barrier prices (if I'm not mistaken, it was initially 10,000 euros, then 3,500 euros, now 2,160 euros) again, combined with the fact that a huge array of active users = interest from advertisers, we could see a multiple increase in Telegram’s revenues, which could stimulate the growth of TON. I’ll add that it's VERY IMPORTANT that Telegram “trains” its advertisers not to turn into a dump.
6.     Huge plus. Plus – Telegram is still managed by Pavel Durov (and Durov hasn’t gone off the rails like McAfee). Pavel takes care of his weight, takes ice baths, etc. Wishing him many years of life (sincerely).
7.     Huge plus. Plus – Telegram has reached 900 million users (!!!). They seem to plan to reach 1.5 billion. Subjectively speaking, Telegram is more convenient than VK and more convenient than WA (not to mention FB). Understand that I'm comparing different things, but using TG, I practically stopped using another social network (after all, there are only so many hours in a day).
8.     Plus. Telegram is constantly testing and implementing new features. There is an ambition to realize "disruptive innovation" that could theoretically make a breakthrough.
9.     Huge plus. Telegram is addictive (admittedly), which is bad for the individual but good for Telegram's revenues as more money comes from advertising and almost no need to spend money on user retention.
10.  Huge plus. Telegram is virally trying to attract foreign (non-Russian speaking) advertisers. In fact, it's a clever and very smart move, channel administrators will receive 50% in TON of ad revenue IF 50% of subscribers are from foreign countries. So, channel admins will use ChatGPT to create foreign content for different countries to get paid. And importantly, advertisers pay in fiat (real money), and Telegram converts 50% of these funds into TON for payments to channel owners.
That is, TON will be bought constantly, regardless of the state of the crypto market (!!!).
11.  Plus. WALLET (Telegram's wallet). It will be almost “by default” for channel owners... that is, if you want to receive value, register, go through KYC, and you will be happy (50% of ad revenues converted into TON).
12.  Huge plus. WALLET is easily convertible to USDT, crypto can be sent to a Telegram user or to an external wallet or sold P2P for fiat. Nothing extra, just perfect! It’s really an alternative to large exchanges if the person is not a trader, but a HODLer.
13.  Huge minus. Any attempts to secure oneself may not protect against the SEC. We are now witnessing active work by this government agency.
14.  Huge plus. Telegram is creating its own ecosystem. For instance, Telegram Business has appeared https://telegram.org/blog/telegram-business. What’s next, marketplaces on Telegram? Or something else. In general, Telegram is targeting those who have money and participate in commerce. This is also a plus for revenues.
15.  Both a minus and a plus. The management of Telegram is limited to owning about 10% of TON. On the one hand, this is a plus – less ability to manipulate the market (though they are still huge), on the other hand, such distancing has unforeseen consequences. But remember the risks, maybe all this is a scam and we all live in a simulation (as Elon Musk said).
YOU CAN LOSE EVERYTHING, THINK CALMLY AND WITHOUT EMOTIONS!
In my personal ranking, TON is in third place, after Ethereum and Bitcoin. Yes, Ethereum is in first place for several reasons. I'll repeat, I'm not giving any recommendations; I believe that any outcome is possible and there are significant risks, despite all the positives.  
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UPDATE 13/04/2024

My friend reviewed the article, and I will add his comment: There are only three factors that could significantly change everything:

(1) 900 million users who might potentially need TON for paying transaction fees (gas) - the demand could grow exponentially,

(2) extensive experience with high-load networks (and Telegram's resilience against national states that have already shown they can attack using the full power of the state machinery) enhances trust in the stability of the TON network (negative experiences with hanging transactions in ETH and recently in the SOL network under real-world application conditions like UBER, when you need to go, not wait while Vitalik makes excuses and tries to fix everything on the fly).

(3) In the long term, TON has every chance, especially since a 100x increase is already considered by the creator, "Even if TON price increases 100 times, transactions will remain ultra-cheap; less than $0.01. Moreover, validators may lower this value if they see commissions have become expensive—read why they're interested."
#toncoin #telegram #ton

Always remember that you shouldn't keep all your money in volatile
cryptocurrencies.
At a minimum, always keep 20-30% in stablecoins (USDT) to
make purchases of BTC or other volatile cryptocurrencies when their
prices are at their lowest!

Here is the translation of the summary of key events preceding each significant Bitcoin crash, including the percentages of price declines:
Crypto Winter of 2011Peak: June 2011, $31.Trough: November 2011, $2.Decline BTC: From $31 to $2, which is a drop of 93.55%.Crypto Winter of 2013-2015Peak: November 2013, $1,163.Trough: January 2015, $172.Decline BTC: From $1,163 to $172, which is a drop of 85.21%.Crypto Winter of 2017-2018Peak: December 2017, nearly $20,000.Trough: December 2018, $3,200.Decline BTC: From $20,000 to $3,200, which is a drop of 84%.Crypto Winter of 2021-2022Peak: November 2021, $69,000.Trough: 2022, $17,600.Decline BTC: From $69,000 to $17,600, which is a drop of 74.49%.
Each of these downturns occurred in the context of significant external factors, such as regulatory changes, cryptocurrency exchange hacks, and macroeconomic conditions. These percentages highlight the significant volatility of the cryptocurrency market, making it both potentially high-reward and high-risk investment.