BREAKING: The US SEC has officially approved spot #Bitcoin    ETFs.

A monumental moment for crypto.

Below are the tickers of all approved spot #Bitcoin     ETFs:

1. $BTCW
2. $GBTC
3. $IBIT
4. $EZBC
5. $BTCO
6. $BRRR
7. $DEFI
8. $HODL
9. $FBTC
10. $BITB
11. $ARKB

Key Events This Week:

1. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday

2. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday

3. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday

4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

5. December PPI Inflation data - Friday

6. Total of 4 Fed Members Speak

Crucial inflation data ahead of the January Fed meeting.
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US Labor Market Summarized:

1. 10 out of the last 11 jobs reports revised lower

2. ~25% of jobs gains in 2023 ultimately revised away

3. Government jobs accounted for 25% of December jobs gains

4. Part time jobs UP 762,000, full time jobs DOWN 1.5 million in December

5. Full-time job gains are FLAT for 2023 while part-time is up sharply

6. Inflation adjusted earnings ~3% BELOW 2021 levels

But still, the initial jobs number beats expectations and prints headlines before being revised lower.
How is this a "soft landing."
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BREAKING: "Buy now, pay later" sales hit a record $16.6 billion over the last 2 months, up 14% compared to 2022.

Online holiday shopping sales hit a record $222.1 billion in the last 2 months of 2023.

This is up 4.9% compared to last year and was largely driven by "buy now, pay later" financing.

1 in 4 Americans have now utilized "buy now, pay later" financing.

Typically, these loans do not require credit checks and come with high interest rates.

How can this end well?

#The biggest consensus trade in the market?

Short bond yields.

62% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall, pushing bond prices higher.

Just 6 months ago, only 10% of institutional investors held this view.

To put this in perspective, even in 2008 and 2020, we barely saw 40% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall.

All as markets are pricing in double the amount of rate cuts compared to Fed guidance.

When the majority of people hold a view, it likely means that view is priced-in.

Today, the 10-year note yield is nearing 4.00% and a break higher would be huge.

In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market will pose a high risk for cryptocurrencies. Do not forget that cryptocurrencies are shaped according to world markets. $BTC $ETH $BNB

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets Closed, Happy New Year! - Monday

2. ISM Manufacturing data - Wednesday

3. JOLTs Jobs data - Wednesday

4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday

5. ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Friday

6. December Jobs Report - Friday

Short but busy week to kick off 2024.

2023 Total Returns...
Bitcoin $BTC : +152%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +55%
S&P 500 $SPY: +26%
Developed ex-US $VEA: +18%
Small Caps $IWM: +17%
Gold $GLD: +13%
REITs $VNQ: +12%
Emerging Markets $IEMG: +12%
US Bonds $AGG: +6%
Cash $BIL: +5%
Commodities $DBC: -6%
Volatility $VXX: -72%

A look back on 2023 in the market:

Heading into this year, the average forecast showed the S&P 500 closing today at ~4,000.

Currently, the index is at 4,777, just under 1% away from a new all-time high.

In other words, we are approximately 20% above Wall Street's average year-end target.

Interestingly, just two months ago, the S&P 500 was trading at 4,100, roughly in line with the average year-end forecast.

These last two months caught institutional investors completely off guard.

The unexpected change is attributed to the "Fed pivot."

To succeed in the crypto markets, you can't do it without examining global markets. Follow me for more. #sp500 $BTC

Global bond index, up 9.5% in the past 2 months, marks the best gain in history, surpassing December 2008. Market futures show an additional 150 basis points in rate cut expectations since November 1st.

Unprecedentedly, markets project 6 interest rate cuts in just 2 months. Bond markets erase all 2023 losses in 7 weeks.

Describing this as a "Fed pivot" is an understatement.
The risk for crypto and other markets lies in increased volatility, potentially impacting prices.
#DXY #SP500 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Over The Last 2 Months:

1. Futures have added 140 basis points of rate cuts

2. The 10-year note yield is down 120 basis points

3. Average 30-year mortgage rates are down 130 basis points

4. The S&P 500 is up 16% in just over 40 trading days

5. US Dollar Index has fallen 7% on Fed pivot talks

All while core inflation is still roughly double the Fed's 2% inflation target.

This can't be what the Fed wanted.
Expectations must be managed or inflation will return.

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