The MVRV Z-Score, a key on-chain metric, is a reliable tool for identifying market risk based on Bitcoin's realized value, effectively pinpointing high-risk and low-risk zones for long-term investment and dollar-cost averaging (DCA). The metric recently indicated a significant peak at the $72,000 range, previously observed near Bitcoin's all-time high in November 2021. Despite the current market risk being perceived as lower, the $72,000 range remains a short-term market ceiling.

For long-term investors, particularly those using a DCA strategy, it's crucial to exercise patience within these zones (specifically within the 3-4 range of the MVRV Z-Score) and optimize entry points. These zones are identified as high-risk areas, but cannot be definitively labeled as price ceilings.

The MVRV Z-Score has multiple applications. In low-risk areas, investors can accumulate, and as market risk increases, they can proceed with managed selling or add to their average investment during price corrections. Using this metric and others derived from Realized Cap, such as Realized Price and MVRV Ratio, are optimal tools for investing and estimating actual risk in the Bitcoin market.

In the midst of Ethereum's recent price fluctuation, investors are keenly observing the futures market to discern potential sentiment changes. The Ethereum Open Interest metric, which tracks the number of open perpetual futures contracts across different cryptocurrency exchanges, is being closely watched. High values hint at possible market volatility and trend persistence, whereas low values suggest a slowdown in the perpetual markets.

Following a brief period of sideways consolidation, Open Interest has seen a significant increase, indicating heightened futures market activity and more assertive long or short positions. This could signal a significant price movement in the near future, contingent on the direction of these positions. If the funding rates metric also increases, the market might witness a resurgence of bullish trends in the mid-term. However, this activity might bring increased volatility, hence traders are advised to proceed with caution.

Recent blockchain data reveals that whales, or large-scale holders, have moved over $1 billion in Toncoin, indicating significant activity within the network. The majority of transactions, 99%, range from 0 to 100 TON, but their impact is minimal, moving only around 4 to 5 million TON. In contrast, transactions between 100,000 and 1 million TON account for 53% of the total volume, recently reaching 135 million TON. Transactions over 1 million TON represent 30% of the total volume.

This data suggests that TON whales have primary control over the blockchain and significantly influence the price of TONCOIN. In terms of dollar value, transactions over $1 million have set records, surpassing $1.3 billion moved in a single day. High volume spikes in these transactions tend to positively impact the price of TONCOIN.

In conclusion, TON whales play a pivotal role in the Toncoin market, significantly affecting its price. Monitoring these large transactions can provide valuable insights into the trends and fluctuations of TONCOIN's value.

#TON #TONCOIN #WHALE

In the blockchain market, new whales, defined as addresses holding over 1,000 BTC with a coin detention time of less than 6 months, have strategically accumulated Bitcoin around the $60,000 mark. This consistent purchasing behavior indicates that $60,000 has become a significant on-chain support level, bolstered by the substantial influx of institutional investors following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. The average acquisition cost of these new whales is approximately $60,000, highlighting their entry confidence and the robustness of this price level as a floor for BTC.

In contrast, long-term whales, those holding more than 1,000 BTC for over 6 months, exhibit a stable realized price, reflecting their seasoned investment strategies and long-term accumulation approach. This stability serves as a benchmark for market stability and long-term support, often disregarding short-term market fluctuations.

The interaction between new and old whales’ realized prices presents a comprehensive view of market dynamics. The significant accumulation by new whales, supported by institutional investment and Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, reinforces the $60,000 support level. Meanwhile, the stability exhibited by long-term whales provides a foundational layer of confidence and strategic holding patterns. In summary, the $60,000 price point emerges as a critical on-chain support level, underpinned by both new whale accumulation and long-term holder stability.

In a recent analysis of Bitcoin's market movements, a clear trend of BTC outflows from exchanges to wallets has been observed, particularly following the test of the 73k zone. This trend becomes more pronounced when examining the data post-March 13.

On days represented by green candles, the number of bitcoins entering the market closely mirrors the numbers, while on the red days, there is a significant increase. This pattern of BTC movements is indicative of market sentiment.

When BTCs are transferred to exchanges, it typically creates a bearish expectation, suggesting that holders may be preparing to sell. Conversely, BTCs moving off-exchange increases the bullish expectation, implying that holders are anticipating a price increase and are therefore holding onto their assets.

This analysis, provided by KriptoBaykusV2, offers an optimistic outlook on the market, reinforcing the potential for growth and positive returns in the blockchain industry.

In a recent analysis, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the inflow of stablecoins into the market has been highlighted. The chart shows Bitcoin's price fluctuations over time and the amount of stablecoins entering the market. Notably, significant increases in stablecoin inflows often coincide with Bitcoin's price movements.

The recent spike in stablecoin inflows suggests a substantial increase in market liquidity. This influx can affect Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics, potentially leading to increased price volatility. This analysis underscores the importance of monitoring stablecoin inflows as a key indicator of Bitcoin's price dynamics and market sentiment.

In a positive turn of events for the blockchain industry, the Coinbase premium is on the rise once again. This is an encouraging sign for the market, as it indicates a resurgence of buying patterns typically associated with Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market makers.

Although the current premium level has not reached its previous peak of $200-300 seen during the acceleration phase, the re-emergence of these buying patterns is a promising indication of market recovery.

This analysis is based on on-chain data and market trends, providing a comprehensive view of the current state of the cryptocurrency market. The increasing Coinbase premium, coupled with the return of ETF market maker buying patterns, paints an optimistic picture for the future of the blockchain industry.

In conclusion, despite the volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market, current data suggests a positive trend. The blockchain industry, it appears, is showing signs of resilience and potential growth.

In the wake of a significant increase in short positions alongside price rise in the crypto market, three potential outcomes are anticipated. Firstly, the price may continue to rise, leading to the liquidation of short positions. Alternatively, a persistent decline might ensue post-liquidation of short positions. Lastly, monitoring the liquidity of positions is advised as a decline is probable when short positions close.

Further, it's crucial to understand the funding rate indicator. A positive funding rate indicates a high long rate, with long position holders paying a commission to short position holders. Conversely, a negative funding rate signifies dominance of short positions, with short position holders paying a commission to long position holders. This mechanism helps maintain balance with the spot market. The market outlook remains optimistic despite these dynamics.

In a recent analysis of Bitcoin's performance, it was observed that the cryptocurrency has once again bounced from the 85% level in terms of supply in profit. This is a significant indicator in bull markets, as it often presents an opportune moment for investors to initiate scaling in.

This pattern of Bitcoin bouncing back from the 85% supply in profit level has been consistent in previous bull markets. It is a positive sign that demonstrates the resilience and potential of Bitcoin as a leading cryptocurrency.

The market's optimistic outlook is further reinforced by this trend. It suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trajectory for Bitcoin remains upward. This provides a promising landscape for investors and further solidifies the importance of blockchain technology in the financial market.

The analysis was conducted by elcryptotavo, whose insights continue to provide valuable perspectives in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.

In the past year, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has consistently surpassed its price, indicating that the cryptocurrency was relatively expensive for investment purposes. However, following the correction after its all-time high, Bitcoin's price has been stuck in the $60,000 - $65,000 range, showing a relatively horizontal movement.

During this period, the MVRV value experienced a roughly 30% correction, moving from the 3 zone to the 2 zone, positioning itself below the Bitcoin price curve. This could be interpreted as a buying zone for medium and long-term investors. The data loudly suggests that "Bitcoin is cheap now!"

This analysis provides a positive outlook for the market, indicating potential growth and favorable investment conditions.

In the Blockchain sector, a noteworthy pattern has been observed when the price of Bitcoin reaches the previous peak of its uptrend cycle. The Supply in Profit data hits 100% at this point, indicating a potential peak in price. However, this is not a signal of an impending downturn.

In fact, the actual cycle begins when the Supply in Profit data reaches this 100% mark. From this point, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, maintaining a certain range. This pattern has been consistent in the past.

In the 2017 cycle, this phase lasted for 350 days, during which Bitcoin saw a staggering 1,500% increase. In the more recent 2020 cycle, the same phase lasted 174 days, with a 349% increase.

This analysis suggests a positive outlook for the market, as it indicates that reaching the previous peak is not a ceiling, but rather a starting point for further growth. This pattern could potentially be a valuable tool for predicting future trends in the Bitcoin market.

Ethereum is currently considered as one of the most undervalued assets in the cryptocurrency market due to several key factors.

Approximately 27% of all Ethereum supply is staked in various protocols, reducing its liquidity and potentially driving up its price due to scarcity. Historical data reveals a correlation between low Ethereum inventory levels on exchanges and significant price movements. As of May 2024, Ethereum trades at approximately $3,000 with reserves at around 13,600,000 ETH, a level historically associated with higher future valuations.

The current reserve on exchanges is roughly half of what it was during the peak in November 2021, when Ethereum reached highs of $4,800 to $5,000 with 26,000,000 to 28,000,000 coins in reserves. The reduction in available supply, coupled with sustained or increasing demand, especially from the growth in DeFi applications using Ethereum as a base or collateral, supports a bullish outlook.

Ethereum benefits directly as the foundational platform for numerous projects, including Layer 2 solutions and cross-chain bridges, enhancing its utility and demand. The ongoing trend towards using Ethereum in DeFi, for lending, and as collateral, alongside the growth in staking and ReStaking protocols, supports its value appreciation. The potential for the adoption of spot Ethereum ETFs and increasing institutional interest could lead to higher liquidity and possibly more stable price trends.

In a bullish crypto market, TON has outperformed Bitcoin by 118% since the start of 2024, while other popular layer-one chains have struggled to gain momentum. TON and BNB are the only major layer 1 blockchains that have significantly outperformed Bitcoin this year, making them worth monitoring.

TON's relative strength against Bitcoin, coupled with the network effect of Telegram, makes it a promising investment. When investing in altcoins, it's crucial to identify projects with a positive trend against both their USD and Bitcoin values.

Before investing in any crypto project, a checklist should include strong on-chain and technical fundamentals such as transactions, active users, applications, tokenomics, etc. Additionally, the token should be in an uptrend against its USD value and its BTC value.

In the ongoing battle of giants, Coinbase and Binance, each has its stronghold. Coinbase holds custody of major Bitcoin ETF funds like Grayscale (GBTC) and BlackRock (IBIT), while Binance dominates spot trading, with a volume five times larger than Coinbase's.

Interestingly, a surge in Bitcoin price often coincides with an increase in Coinbase's volume share relative to Binance's. Conversely, a decrease in its share often leads to a shift in trend and frequent price drops. This underlines the inverse dynamics of these two exchange giants and their influence over Bitcoin reserves.

In early 2023, Binance's volume was 53 times greater than Coinbase's, a significant moment when Binance offered zero fees on spot trades for the BTC-USDT pair. However, with the intensification of ETF news, Coinbase has begun to reclaim a larger market share.

The relationship between these exchanges is complex, but it's clear that their dominance at specific times directly impacts Bitcoin's price. This ongoing competition between the market's biggest players is constantly reflected in cryptocurrency movements.

Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been trading sideways, following its recent rally that pushed its price beyond the all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid expansions have corresponded with significant increases in the global money supply (M2), indicating periods of high liquidity and strong investor risk appetite. However, this dynamic is absent in the current cycle. Despite a slight rise in global liquidity over the past year benefiting Bitcoin, the year-over-year change in M2 has returned to neutral levels early this year.

Currently, there are no immediate signs indicating a surge in demand that could significantly push prices higher. Selling pressure has decreased as Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have seen price stabilization around $60k, and Short-Term Holders (STHs) have reduced sales due to decreased profitability.

Given this context, it is likely that the market will maintain its sideways trend until triggers emerge that can drive a decisive movement. The current market structure suggests there's potential for a more expressive rally within this cycle. The most probable scenario is that Bitcoin will stay within this trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic setting emerges, likely centered around the expected first U.S. interest rate cut in September. This environment could spark a new demand wave and a subsequent rally, marking the cycle's peak. The upcoming U.S. inflation data, expected this week, is pivotal and may shape market expectations about short-term monetary policy.

The correlation between digital currencies and Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, reveals significant insights. All cryptocurrencies show a positive correlation with Bitcoin, which serves as a key index in the digital currency market. However, as the market matures and new digital currencies emerge, these currencies' price behavior aligns more with Bitcoin. This trend is attributed to the maturation of these projects over time. The study suggests that as the digital currency market matures, the correlation of these assets with Bitcoin will likely increase proportionately in the coming years. However, correlation does not imply causation or certainty in the behavior of two parameters. It's not always the case that digital currencies will align with Bitcoin. The key takeaway is understanding Bitcoin's increasing influence on the digital currency market in each cycle.

In 2021, during the bull market's peak, approximately 2.7 million Bitcoin were held in exchange reserves, with Bitcoin trading around $69,000. Fast forward to 2021, reserves have decreased to about 2 million Bitcoin, yet the trading prices are nearing historical highs. The recent halving event has significantly reduced the potential new supply from miners, making it challenging to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar is experiencing a noticeable depreciation. Market behaviors suggest a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, possibly reversing its quantitative easing measures and considering a rate cut. The U.S. economy seems to have adapted to high inflation rates.

Given these dynamics, the focus should be on supply and demand. With the current market conditions, accumulating even a single Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult, making it a primary investment goal. By observing market trends, the strategic merits of maintaining Bitcoin holdings will likely become apparent over time. Written by Kirill Evans.

In the blockchain industry, the unrealized profit and loss ratio resistance level was reached in the latter half of March. Currently, it is maintaining a position above the 0.50 support zone, with the US inflation data set to be released in May. The key question is whether the 0.50 support zone will hold firm or break down following the release of the US inflation data.

This could potentially lead to a decrease in price. However, it could also be seen as a buying opportunity by investors, particularly those who are optimistic about the ongoing bull cycle. This situation calls for a thorough analysis of crypto projects, on-chain data, and market trends.

Written by tugbachain, this piece underscores the importance of staying informed and making strategic decisions based on comprehensive market analysis.

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the trend of Coinbase Premium can be a valuable leading indicator for the future direction of Bitcoin's price. Historical data reveals that when the Coinbase Premium trend is negative and subsequently reverses from a downtrend to an uptrend, a price rebound is typically observed. A notable instance of this was when Grayscale triumphed in the Grayscale-SEC lawsuit to convert GBTC to an ETF, which triggered a substantial surge in price.

At present, the Coinbase Premium trend is marginally positive, hovering close to zero. If the past pattern repeats itself, it suggests that there could be a higher probability of success by waiting for the trend to turn negative before investing on the rebound. This optimistic outlook is based on the consistent logic of market trends and the potential for strategic investment timing.

Written by SignalQuant.

In a recent analysis of blockchain data, it was observed that Bitcoin whales made significant sales on March 17th, potentially contributing to the recent price decline. However, the unrealized profit of these whales is nearing its historical peak, suggesting a reluctance to sell among a significant portion of them. This could indicate a potential upward trend in the future, as these whales may be anticipating higher prices. The market, despite recent fluctuations, remains optimistic. This analysis underscores the importance of on-chain data in understanding market trends and whale behavior.