Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been trading sideways, following its recent rally that pushed its price beyond the all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid expansions have corresponded with significant increases in the global money supply (M2), indicating periods of high liquidity and strong investor risk appetite. However, this dynamic is absent in the current cycle. Despite a slight rise in global liquidity over the past year benefiting Bitcoin, the year-over-year change in M2 has returned to neutral levels early this year.

Currently, there are no immediate signs indicating a surge in demand that could significantly push prices higher. Selling pressure has decreased as Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have seen price stabilization around $60k, and Short-Term Holders (STHs) have reduced sales due to decreased profitability.

Given this context, it is likely that the market will maintain its sideways trend until triggers emerge that can drive a decisive movement. The current market structure suggests there's potential for a more expressive rally within this cycle. The most probable scenario is that Bitcoin will stay within this trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic setting emerges, likely centered around the expected first U.S. interest rate cut in September. This environment could spark a new demand wave and a subsequent rally, marking the cycle's peak. The upcoming U.S. inflation data, expected this week, is pivotal and may shape market expectations about short-term monetary policy.