🚨 Signs of Massive Sell-Offs by Long Term Holders: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

Two on-chain metrics are signaling significant activity from Long Term Holders (LTH), indicating potential massive sell-offs:

🔍 Reserve Risk Indicators

These include metrics like VOCDD, MVOCDD, Reserve Risk, and MVOCDD Signal. They evaluate Bitcoin’s sustainability by comparing its price to the average cost basis of LTH:

VOCDD and MVOCDD: Measure the velocity of coin destruction.

Reserve Risk: Assesses whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.

MVOCDD Signal: Acts as a market peak signal, indicating when Bitcoin might be nearing a top.

🔍 Coin Days Destroyed Terminal Adjusted (CDD Terminal Adjusted)

This metric refines the traditional CoinDays Destroyed by factoring in Bitcoin’s current circulating supply. It offers a clearer view of LTH behavior, highlighting significant coin movements or inactivity, providing valuable insights into market cycles and investor trends.

What Does This Mean?

Historically, LTH take advantage of Bitcoin’s price rallies to realize profits, as their average acquisition cost is very low. This behavior often creates local resistance levels that can take weeks or even months to break again.

Even if BTC continues to rise in the near future, the data suggests that LTH are no longer as interested in holding. This could shape market dynamics in 2025. However, it’s important to note:

These metrics don’t define a market cycle top but are excellent tools for sentiment analysis.

Learn more about how on-chain metrics are shaping Bitcoin’s future at Alphractal

🚀 Understand the market, make informed decisions.