As incredible as it may seem, Bitcoin was on the cusp of $100K, but we all know that traders choose numbers close to round numbers to exit positions in relative safety. From $73K to $99,800K, Bitcoin saw a positive performance of 57%, one of the 6 biggest exit rallies from consolidation zones.
The Choppiness Index, an important metric to measure Bitcoin's strength, is already worn out on a weekly basis, which gives us indications that this $100K stage is looking for a few weeks of consolidation.
But how many weeks? Where do we prepare?
Taking into account the 2020 cycle after the exit from consolidation, Bitcoin saw its first wear on November 21st and started another rally on December 15th (3 weeks and 2 days with an 18% correction), in these scenarios we would see the next rally in the second half of December. Monthly attendance has an important role in mitigating correction.
As a confluence of this stage through LTH Behavior Analysis we verified the current zone as an LTH supply distribution zone with around 350% in profit with around 575K Bitcoins ($58B) returned to the market. Still, demand has been significant through inflows into ETFs and from actors like MicroStrategy to hold all these outflows.
In the short term, short-term holders, using the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit and Loss metric, have the same configuration and are responsible for 30.2% of the profits obtained. Another important note is seeing the MVRV above 1.33σ indicates that the average currency is on the trail of 1.4σ (40% profit), a zone of large unrealized profits (the same zone we found in the first correction of the first vertical rally at the end of 2020).
Written by Percival
