Back to Business.
I know this is a Crypto forum and my focus has been on other markets, i dont want to confuse people who dont understand how it all effects crypto but it does.
Crypto like anything needs fiat money to start with, it needs large amounts of money going into "risk on" speculation.
Please see imagine attached.(Daily candles)
As this imagine(right) shows the DXY(dollar strength) is dropping rapidly, yesterday it broke through a previous daily support level.
In the same time Gold has been making gains, this shows a lot of money that is moving out of the Dollar is going into "risk off" Gold.
This shows large investors are still seeing risks.
Stocks, bonds, crypto, all potentially offer more short term profits than Gold, Gold does not earn interest, it is an investment in security, a hedge against volatilty of fiat, stocks, crypto and so on.
If large investors are chosing gold it is for a reason.
Later today we have Unemployment data - July 18th 12:30pm UTC+0
Many in the Fed are hinting at rate cuts, as i have said for some time unemployment will be key, it will be the place that shows if a "soft landing" or recession is likely.
The markets will all be watching this number.
I said in a post over a week ago that Trump could possibly try influence the Interest rate decision, 1 week later it was all over the news, they are playing a political game and everyone, including Powell knows that Trump is a near certainty for President.
I highly doubt a July cut will happen, its priced at 4.7%, a September cut is 98% with a small % of that to be a 50bps cut.
How much Trump influences the decision i dont know.
If the unemployment numbers come out as predicted or slightly better (under 229k) then i see Crypto rallying for a while, possibly until the 27th July when Trump speaks at the BTC conference.
Mt.Gox payments are still looming so dont be at high liquidation risk.
At this point everything is being manipulated for politics, anything can happen, be bullish in a sensible way, spot or low margin and take profits.
Peace
