It’s a bull party for Bitcoin today. The crypto giant has seen a remarkable surge over the past forty-eight hours, managing to reclaim $60K, and even shoot past it. Traders and investors are jubilating, but Bitfinex analysts thinks this party wouldn’t last all that long.
Source: TradingView The bears are still around
Bitfinex analysts think Bitcoin’s rally is just another false promise. They’ve seen these mini-rallies before, especially on weekends. Typically, Bitcoin sees a boost on Saturdays, but by midweek, prices drop. This time might not be different.
With 2.8 million Bitcoins now in the red, short-term holders are feeling the pain. The analysts point out that:
“Over the past month, Saturdays have seen an average return of 1.6 percent for BTC. When broadening the scope to include the entire summer range, the average return on Saturdays decreases to 0.9 percent.”
Weekends have been kind to Bitcoin lately. But why? The analysts believe it’s more about news than actual fundamentals. Prices are reacting to headlines. This isn’t good news for long-term stability. The bears have not gone away.
Bitfinex’s chart below shows the last six Saturdays since June 8th when Bitcoin was above $70,000. The trend is clear. Weekends see a boost, but it doesn’t last. By the start of the week, prices usually fall again.
Source: Bitfinex
We all know that Mt. Gox creditors are set to get their Bitcoin payouts soon, and this could flood the market with more selling pressure. Bitfinex analysts said they expect these headlines to continue to have some impact on price.
Bitcoin’s weekly close around $60,200, a support level, now acts as potential resistance. Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 two weeks ago, and now we’re in a kind of limbo until there’s a clear direction.
Long-term holders are winning
The analysts have noticed a huge slowdown in profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). This group of investors holds around 14.8 million Bitcoins. It’s a drop from 16.2 million Bitcoins in January 2024.
Source: IntoTheBlock
This stabilization over the past three months means reduced selling pressure from these long-term holders. It’s a mixed signal, because while fewer Bitcoins are being sold, the market isn’t out of the woods yet. The analysts said:
“Long-term holders have slowed down in profit realization. The supply held by these LTHs has stabilized around the 14.8 million Bitcoins mark, down from 16.2 million Bitcoins in January 2024.”
This still doesn’t necessarily mean the market is stable. Bitfinex Analysts stressed that the close at $60,200 is a key level to watch. It’s been a support but could now act as resistance. At press time, Bitcoin was worth $63,271.
