Ryogin

Is #Artificiallnteligence an economic hoax?

How much is artificial intelligence contributing to GDP growth? You know that we are all talking about artificial intelligence, that artificial intelligence is the future.

But, how much is it really contributing to GDP? Initially, we are finding that the first estimates suggest that artificial intelligence may currently represent around 0.4-0.5% of the #GDP of the United States. Logically, in other countries, the contribution will be lower.

Now, whether we are in favor or against artificial intelligence, whether we believe in it or not, I believe that artificial intelligence is necessary for governments to guarantee national defense. Additionally, artificial intelligence is logical for automating a series of labor tasks. How much could it be? 10 to 25% of all labor tasks?

Therefore, artificial intelligence will drive economic growth. When will we notice it in the GDP? When will it have a greater percentage of the global GDP? Well, not before the year 2026, because first, all the necessary infrastructures must be developed for companies to incorporate artificial intelligence into their production processes.

Speaking of infrastructure, governments and also the private sector will have to invest in infrastructure. In this specific case, public investment is more necessary than ever. But this public investment is a productive investment that will generate tax revenues for governments.

Will these tax revenues be enough to reduce the enormous public deficits? Well, obviously not. Because on one hand, there is productive investment and, with these higher tax revenues that governments will have, politicians will try to spend them to secure their power.

However, the widespread adoption and integration of AI technologies could significantly influence the crypto market. As AI drives automation and economic growth, it may also enhance the efficiency and security of blockchain technologies, making crypto like $BTC and $ETH more reliable and widely accepted.

That's all for today, have a great day. 🤖

تواصل Bitcoin مغادرة البورصات.

في اليومين الماضيين، شهدنا تدفقًا خارجيًا قدره 50000 $BTC من البورصات. ضع في اعتبارك أن هذا مبلغ هائل، مع الأخذ في الاعتبار أنه يتم إنشاء 450 عملة بيتكوين جديدة فقط يوميًا.

عندما تقوم بإزالة أحد الأصول من منصة ما، فذلك لأنك لا تنوي بيعه على المدى القصير. وهذا، إلى جانب انخفاض الطلب المؤسسي إلى النصف وزيادة الطلب المؤسسي، يمكن أن يخلق صدمة في العرض. بدءًا من مارس 2020، في بداية الوباء، رأينا عملات البيتكوين تبدأ فجأة في مغادرة منصات التداول. وهذا لم يحدث من قبل. كان الاتجاه هو إرسال المزيد من البيتكوين إلى البورصات. ولكن منذ مارس 2020، بدأت المؤسسات في الانخراط بشكل أكبر في العملات المشفرة، وتغير الوضع تمامًا.

الآن، نشهد تدفقًا كبيرًا قدره 50000 عملة بيتكوين في اليومين الماضيين. لقد قمت بمراجعة جميع عمليات التبادل، ومن المدهش أن التدفقات الخارجة الضخمة كانت من Kraken. أريد أن أؤكد ذلك لأنه إذا تمكن متتبع على السلسلة من التحقق من ذلك، فسوف أتفاجأ. أعتقد أن هذا خطأ من Glassnode نفسه، على الرغم من أن المنصات الأخرى تقوم بالإبلاغ عن نفس البيانات.

لماذا أقول أنه خطأ؟ لأنه إذا قمنا بمراجعة تاريخ Kraken، فإننا لم نشهد أبدًا هذه الأنواع من التدفقات الخارجية. وفي غضون يومين فقط، انتقلنا من المستويات المتوسطة في السنوات القليلة الماضية إلى مستويات لم نشهدها على المنصة منذ عام 2017. وإذا كانت هذه البيانات دقيقة، فهي شذوذ هائل.

أقول دائمًا نفس الشيء في مجال العملات المشفرة: كل شيء يحدث ببطء حتى يحدث فجأة. تخيل أننا سنرى غدًا تدفقًا هائلاً آخر على Coinbase؛ قد يؤدي هذا إلى إنشاء FOMO من العدم وبدء المسار الصعودي. ما يحدث الآن هو شيء صعودي للغاية، سواء من الطلب المؤسسي أو صناديق الاستثمار المتداولة في وول ستريت، بالإضافة إلى رسائل لاري فينك والإجراءات من الدول والمؤسسات الأخرى.

في الختام، فإن ديناميكيات السوق الحالية صعودية بشكل غير عادي. وستكون الأيام المقبلة حاسمة في تحديد ما إذا كانت هذه الاتجاهات ستستمر، مما قد يمهد الطريق لارتفاع كبير في السوق. ابقوا متابعين. 😀

Central bankers expressly acknowledge that they are confused.

Take a look at this news published by Bloomberg yesterday. Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan says that despite the rise in interest rates and their high levels, she considers them to be less restrictive than initially thought.

Why? You know that when a central banker says they are data-dependent, what it really means is that they do not trust their macroeconomic model. This means that they do not know the equilibrium interest rate, the natural interest rate. Without knowing the natural interest rate of an economy, monetary policy cannot be conducted.

Why are central bankers so confused? What are the economic consequences of this? Very simple. You know that central bankers implement monetary policy, raise interest rates, and adjust their balance sheets. What we are finding is that the service sector, when you raise the interest rate, is very insensitive to interest rate hikes, while the goods sector is very sensitive.

Of course, in the 1950s, you would raise interest rates, and since the goods sector represented practically 75% of the economy and was sensitive to interest rate hikes, you could slow economic growth. Nowadays, this is not the case.

Yesterday the first revision of the initial estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 was published. What did we see? The economy grew at a low rate, relatively low, the lowest since 2022. Why? Let's make the same distinction: we find that the service sector rises, but the goods sector contracts. This is a consequence of the interest rate hikes. In the end, we had positive growth for a very simple reason: the growth of the service sector offset the decline of the goods sector.

Do you see that this is the key behind the problems central bankers face when defining their monetary policy? How does this affect $BTC ? Well, greater uncertainty in monetary policy could lead more investors to seek refuge in decentralized assets like cryptocurrencies. 😉

That's all for today, have a great day.

'The Future Of Crypto And Bitcoin Will Be Made In The USA'

These are the words of #DonaldTrump , the candidate for the White House presidency in November. We are talking about the world's leading power, which many institutions and countries use as a reference.

You have already seen what has happened with Wall Street. Once Wall Street accepted $BTC as a novel tool to generate a wealth vehicle, it simply opened the doors. The rest of the world is starting to do the same.

In his recent speech in Washington, Trump assured that he would support the right to self-custody for the more than 50 million cryptocurrency holders in the country and, under his mandate, he would never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). He also commented that he would keep Senator Elizabeth Warren's anti-crypto army and her henchmen away from your Bitcoin.

But let's see, who is this guy, Donald Trump or Michael Saylor? It’s pretty crazy what we are experiencing. Keep in mind that they are now floating trial balloons to capture votes. If they continue to expand the range of proposals in the crypto sector, it’s clear that they have seen significant activity and can gain several votes. Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me if, as we get closer to November, the discourse becomes more radical if the crypto community positions itself in favor of Donald Trump, as it is currently happening.

Attention, because it seems the portfolio has been discovered. Do you remember that Donald Trump accepts cryptocurrencies as donations for his campaign? Well, in one week, he already has 10 million dollars, according to tracking by Arkham. And as you can see here, the asset that weighs the most in his portfolio, as expected, is the #Trump token with over 7 million dollars.

All this being said a couple of years ago, I would have said it’s quite unlikely. But well, it’s happening. Now, how far will Donald Trump go with Bitcoin? Do you think he could propose adopting Bitcoin as the country's reserve if cryptos become a very powerful niche to attract new voters? Let me know.

لن تعود هذه العملات البديلة أبدًا إلى أعلى مستوياتها على الإطلاق.

حسنًا، فلنبدأ قسمًا جديدًا يسمى "عملات المهملات". الرسم البياني لا يكذب. هل هو صعودا أو هبوطا؟ إنها تنخفض، وقد حدث ذلك منذ عام 2013.

بالطبع أنا أتحدث عن $LTC و $XRP . لكن لماذا؟

انخفض أداء سوق Litecoin منذ ذروته في ديسمبر 2017. وعلى الرغم من الأخبار الإيجابية والاعتماد، إلا أنها لم تتمكن من تجاوز أعلى مستوياتها السابقة. يعد عدم وجود عرض قيمة فريد مشكلة أيضًا.

في حين أن Litecoin كانت واحدة من أولى العملات البديلة التي قامت بتحسين تكنولوجيا Bitcoin، فقد ظهرت عملات مشفرة أحدث ذات ميزات أفضل وقابلية للتوسع، مما طغى على مزاياها. حتى تقديم MimbleWimble لتعزيز الخصوصية لم يؤثر بشكل كبير على اعتماده أو سعره في السوق.

ما يحدث مع $XRP now يشبه إلى حد كبير ما حدث مع Litecoin في الدورة السابقة. لقد كنت في الدورة السابقة مع Litecoin، والتي استمرت في الارتفاع. رأيت فقط أساسيات جيدة وفكرت، "هذه هي الفضة، والبيتكوين هي الذهب."

كانت المؤسسات تعمل على تجميعها، مثل إنشاء Grayscale لصندوق Litecoin ودمجه في محفظتها الاستثمارية. كانت هناك أخبار إيجابية، لكن مع مرور الوقت، أصبح الأمر واضحا. لقد دخلنا سوقًا هابطة وفكرت، "يا رجل، هذا صعب." هذه هي الدروس التي تعلمتها، ولهذا السبب أقوم بنشر هذه المنشورات – لتوضيح الواقع.

بقلب مثقل، يجب أن أقول إن XRP في وضع مماثل. أحد أهم العوامل هو المعركة القانونية المستمرة مع هيئة الأوراق المالية والبورصات. لقد خلقت هذه الدعوى القضائية قدرًا كبيرًا من عدم اليقين بشأن مستقبل XRP ودفعت العديد من البورصات إلى شطب تداولها أو تقييده. وقد أدى عدم اليقين التنظيمي إلى جعل المستثمرين حذرين، مما أدى إلى انخفاض الطلب على XRP.

إنها قريبة من أدنى مستوياتها التاريخية، وتذكرنا مستويات الأسعار بعام 2014. باختصار، إنها ليست عملة أحملها.

هذا كل شيء لهذا اليوم! آمل أن تكون هذه المعلومات قد مفيدة. أرك لاحقًا.

It is thanks to immigrants.

The question I want to ask you today is very delicate because it has many implications: How is illegal immigration affecting the U.S. economy? I will stick to my area of expertise, which is the economy.

First, note that 80% of the increase in the adult population in the U.S. over the last two years is due to people not born in the U.S. but abroad.

So, the next question is, without these 3.2 million people, how much would the U.S. economy have grown? These people contribute to production and create demand. Without them, U.S. GDP would have grown much less. How much less? At least a third less, so it would have been two-thirds of the estimated figure.

Illegal immigration has helped the U.S. maintain a strong labor market, allowing companies to rely on these workers to continue services. On average, people coming to the U.S. have low technical qualifications. This can affect productivity. In the short term, it doesn't help, but this influx of adults, who will later have children that will enter the education system and fill higher-skilled jobs.

Additionally, this influx isn't happening in countries like China and Russia, which have low birth rates. In the medium and long term, this will boost the U.S. population and productivity while competitor countries lag.

Yesterday, in the Wall Street Journal, I was surprised when they said the inversion of the yield curve failed to predict recessions, questioning its utility.

Remember, when the yield curve inverts, it usually means a recession is coming. But the reason for the recession is that if banks lend less after the inversion, the economy shrinks. If banks lend more, the economy doesn’t enter a recession.

The yield curve inversion signals you to watch credit supply and demand. If it's healthy and growing, the economy won’t recess. This is what’s happening now. It's surprising that the Wall Street Journal would say this, and even more so that Cambridge or Oxford professors would echo it.

That's all for now. I am going for a walk. Have a great day!