JPMorgan Says GBTC Sell-off ‘behind Us’ As ETFs Post Record Net Outflow
Investors are likely done with the bulk of profit-taking from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which could ease pressure on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), according to JPMorgan analysts.
It comes as daily net outflows from United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit a record high on its ninth day of trading.
“GBTC profit taking has largely happened already,” said the analysts headed by market strategy managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a Jan. 25 market report. “This would imply that most of the downward pressure on Bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.”
Grayscale’s fund has traded at a discount to its net asset value since early 2021 and the analysts pinned the fund’s $4.3 billion outflows since its conversion to an ETF on Jan. 11 as “profit-taking on previous GBTC investments” and the reason for Bitcoin’s nearly 20% price drop to now trade under $40,000 since the launch of multiple U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin’s price has steadily fallen since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals on Jan. 11 Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro
JPMorgan’s note comes after the ten approved spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $158 million on Jan. 24, the largest net outflow day since launch, per BitMEX research data shared on social media platform X on Jan. 25.
Here is the chart for day 9, with all data outDay 9 was pretty weak for Blackrock, with +$66mFidelity performed well: +$126m pic.twitter.com/2VzTpZWOKx
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 25, 2024
Grayscale’s ETF saw $429 million in outflows on Jan. 24, while the most recent BitMEX data for Jan. 25 shows outflows dropped to $394 million — its second-lowest outflow day on record.
Data for Jan. 24 compiled by X account CC15Capital shows Bitcoin ETF holdings held by all ten funds dropped on the day by 4,610 BTC, worth nearly $184 million.
✅ FINAL Update for 1/24 #Bitcoin Holdings of ETFs$GBTC posted the official data & the actual # was very close to my estimate (again) Ready for 1/25 data $IBIT $FBTC $ARKB $BITB $BRRR $BTCO $HODL $EZBC $BTCW $DEFI $GBTC pic.twitter.com/v9mgg8lZzW
— CC15Capital (@Capital15C) January 25, 2024
Inflows to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 24 were the lowest since launch, with only $66.2 million on the day, while it increased its Bitcoin stash by 1,663 BTC. In total, IBIT currently holds nearly 45,700 and has just over $1.8 billion in assets under management.
Big Questions: How can Bitcoin payments stage a comeback?
I don't typically post about things like this, but the more I've learned about Bitcoin, the more I see it as a new, transformative asset.
So I wanted to share a bit about my experience with Bitcoin.
When I first learned about Bitcoin in 2012, I thought it was an interesting project, but it was complicated, confusing, and I didn't see the real utility of it.
At that time, 1 Bitcoin was worth about $13.
5 years later in 2017, even more people I respect were talking about Bitcoin as a new form of currency that can easily be sent anywhere in the world quickly, affordably, and without involving banks or middlemen.
I was skeptical that Bitcoin would ever be used as an actual currency.
At that time, Bitcoin was worth about $5,000.
In 2019, I was shocked to see many of the people I follow on Twitter talking about the growing Bitcoin ecosystem, how people around the world were using Bitcoin to transact, without the downsides of the traditional financial ecosystem.
I just didn't see how Bitcoin wouldn't lose out to a better form of cryptocurrency, or a digital dollar.
At that time, 1 Bitcoin was worth about $11,000.
From 2021 to 2022, I watched the price of Bitcoin hit a new all-time high and then fall back down in value.
As the federal government continued devaluing the US dollar, causing inflation, I didn't understand why Bitcoin wasn't performing better if it was supposed to be a hard asset that provided a hedge against inflation.
At that time, 1 Bitcoin was worth about $16,000.
Last year, in 2023, although Bitcoin had fallen from its all-time high, I was searching for a hedge against the growing inflation of the US dollar and couldn't stop thinking about Bitcoin and what I was missing.
I finally did a deep dive and read as much as I could to try and understand how Bitcoin works and what I was missing.
As I read and learned more, my doubts and concerns about Bitcoin were answered, one by one.
A bunch of people are talking about, and as usual they have no idea what they are talking about.
The God Candle is NOT happening anytime soon, because it's not a $10k candle.
The God candle will occur when we’re no long tracking the price of Bitcoin, but the price of Sats. It will occur after we’ve reached Sat - Cent parity, in other words, when 1 Satoshi = 1 Cent.
Now...
The God Candle happens when: 1 sat moves from 5c to 6c in one single day.
That doesn't sound like a big deal right? And for most, it won't be. At that point, their $5000 worth of sats (ie; 500k Sats) will increase in value to $6000.
BUT....but but but.
BEHIND the scenes, that Bitcoin just went from $5m to $6m in a SINGLE day.
That is a ONE MILLION dollar candle. In one day. Yes. Mark my words. Bookmark this tweet. I wrote about this two years ago:
The God Candle is $1m in a day.
Not some measly $10k. This is child's play. We are still early. That's the good news.
The (bad??) news...It's not coming anytime soon.
0.00001% chance it will happen this cycle 20% chance it will happen next (2028) cycle 80% chance it happens first cycle post 2030 99% chance it happens before 2040$BTC
#BTC #ETF #trendingtoday LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.$BTC
#BTC #ETF #trendingtoday LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.$BTC
#BTC #ETF #trendingtoday LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.$BTC
#BTC #ETF #trendingtoday LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.$BTC
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