Summary: After the Miner Position Index (MPI), which measures implied miner sell pressure, reaches its cycle low— likely below 1.4— the bull run resumes. This process can take many months.
Post-halving is a challenging time for miners, as their struggle to adapt to lower rewards can produce volatility in miner flows, negatively impacting prices on shorter timeframes, which can produce or aggravate mid-cycle slumps.
Once the MPI stabilizes post-halving and reaches its lowest historic range (below 1.4), it correlates with the end of the mid-cycle slump. This is typically followed by a gradual, then parabolic, second half of the bull cycle.
Of course its not an immediate up-only, and other factors play into the timing and duration.
Also consider that Bitcoin is in the midst of a prolonged consolidation period post-halving, and such large consolidations typically lead to significant expansions.
We also observe inflation data declining at the end of a rate cycle, coinciding with a U.S. election where, for the first time, crypto is an increasingly bullish topic, and U.S. ETFs for BTC and ETH are finally approved.
All of these factors suggest an incredible and rare confluence of bullish conditions.
Written by Papi
