The spot price often reacts to the 1w-1m cost basis, a concept we explored in our research on short-term and long-term holder behavior. This is because recent buyers are more price-sensitive and likely to spend in the short term.

During bull market corrections, short-term holders typically increase their spending as the market declines. When the market price nears each sub-cohort's cost basis, their spending rate is expected to slow down, indicating potential seller exhaustion.

We use the 1w-1m realized price (cost-basis) as a guide to identify potential points of seller exhaustion in the near term.