2024/12/28
It’s been a while since I committed to daily updates, and to be honest, getting back into the rhythm feels a bit unfamiliar. Today, an important development unfolded—the red trend line has finally been broken. However, the optimism that briefly returned during the Asian trading session was quickly overshadowed by the performance of the US stock market, leaving buyers hesitant once again. This weakening sentiment is likely to carry over into tomorrow's session.
The holiday season seems to be stretching on endlessly. With the majority of American traders still on vacation, the market appears to be stuck in either a slow decline or sideways movement. To confirm a short-term reversal, it’s essential to see a 4-hour close above $94,500. Until that happens, buying into the dip at this level could be risky and unwise. If you’re anxious about missing out, consider waiting for levels around $92,100 or $93,400 to test the waters. Alternatively, use a staggered entry strategy—dividing your positions into segments like 30%, 30%, and 40%, or 20%, 20%, 30%, and 30%. This reduces risk while allowing for more precise entries.
Key resistance levels remain consistent with yesterday's observations, with no major changes in sight. At times, the market’s volatility feels excessive, and constant trading isn’t always necessary. Patience can be more rewarding—either wait for a confirmed bottom or for the market trend to become more predictable. Acting impulsively often leads to mistakes.
When entering trades, avoid holding onto positions stubbornly. Instead, use a strategy of reducing your exposure. For example, reduce your position size by half whenever the price moves 1.5% against you, repeating this process three times. On the fourth instance, exit entirely. This approach caps your net loss at around 2%, which is far better than taking unnecessary risks. If the market moves 5% in one direction, there’s a high chance of a significant counter-move next time. Being flexible and adjusting positions is a smarter choice than holding firm against the market.
On a less positive note, Solana (SOL) showed promising momentum as it emerged from a rising pattern but was dragged back down by the broader market’s performance. Altcoins continue to struggle, finding it difficult to sustain independent upward trends without Bitcoin's support.
Lastly, tonight’s unexpected drop in US stocks is puzzling. It’s unclear what triggered the decline. If there’s any major news behind this movement, it hasn’t yet come to light.
In summary, stay cautious, avoid impulsive trades, and keep an eye on confirmed levels before taking positions. Adaptability and patience are your strongest tools in this unpredictable market.