💵 The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $10.7 billion in one week!
▪️ Waller, Fed Chairman:
- It is important to start cutting rates at the next Fed meeting.
- I don’t see any signs of a recession or signals for its onset.
▪️ Williams, Fed Chairman:
- The Fed is ready to begin a cycle of monetary easing.
- There are risks associated with the labor market.
▪️ Goolsbee, Fed Chairman:
- Today's Nonfarm Payrolls is a continuation of a series of weak labor market data.
- The main thing is to prevent the situation on the labor market from worsening.
- The Fed's Beige Book signals a grim economic outlook.
▪️ Rosengren, former Fed Chairman:
- US macro data does not indicate a high probability of recession.
- Fed rate cut by 50 bp in September unlikely (expected 25 bp)
📌 Market expectations (#FedRate #ФРС :
- September 18: a decrease of 25 bp to 5.00-5.25% (today - 50 bp)
- November 7: a decrease of 50 bp to 4.50-4.75%.
- December 18: a decrease of 50 bps to 4.00-4.25%.
- January 29, 2025: reduction by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%.
