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TheCryptoDegen
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#BTC
比特幣正在慢慢接近“危險區”（橙色），歷史性的減半前回撤已經開始
從歷史上看，比特幣在減半前 14-28 天進行過減半前回調
目前，距離比特幣減半還有33天
$BTC
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BTC Cycle Performance and Drawdowns Bitcoin has historically exhibited exponential gains during bull cycles, but each cycle has also seen numerous large drawdowns. The current bull market cycle, which began in November 2022, has seen prices reach ~4x from the lows. The two prior bull markets (2015-2017 and 2018-2021) saw prices rise 100x and 20x, respectively. Prior cycles saw an average of: Nine drawdowns between 5%-20% Three drawdowns between 20%-40% One drawdown between 40%-70% The current cycle has seen: Eight drawdowns between 5%-20% Two drawdowns between 20%-30% No drawdowns greater than 30% #Bitcoin_Coneference_2024
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Basics of Digital Assets.
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#Bitcoin cycles repeat. (1) - All time high (2) - Correction and Bear market rally (3) - Bear market (4) - Bear market bottom (5) - Uptrend and consolidation (8) - New All time high These time zones are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ...). In trading, Fibonacci time zones are created by segmenting the vertical price movement (from a notable low to a notable high) into several equal parts using Fibonacci ratios. Commonly used ratios include 1, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and others. Each ratio represents a distinct time zone.
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Bitcoin On-chain Metrics The database contained within Bitcoin and other digital asset ledgers is transparent, allowing analysts and data providers to inspect the aggregate transactions and volumes across the network. This allows the pricestamping of each coin based on the time when it last moved on-chain. Pricestamping also enables analysts to calculate the average cost basis for all coins in the supply and to determine the proportion of the supply held “in-profit” or “in-loss.” The Realized Cap is an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin as it captures the aggregate value of all coins, priced at the time they last transacted on-chain. In many ways it is analogous to a form of “on-chain market cap.” The Realized Cap is currently at $591 billion, providing a measure of the cumulative capital inflows into Bitcoin over the course of its history. Historically, the spot Market Cap has traded near or below the Realized Cap during late-stage bear markets, signifying that the average coin is held at an unrealized loss. We can also identify periods where the Market Cap diverges higher than the Realized Cap during uptrends, signifying the average coin is holding an increasingly large unrealized profit.
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Bitcoin will outperform stocks for one simple reason Apple stock started with 4.6 million shares, now there’s 16 billion Google stock started with 16 million shares, now there’s 14 billion GameStop had 65 million shares in 2020, now there’s 420 million Bitcoin is the only asset you can’t make more of when the price goes up
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BTC 跌破 67,000 USDT，24 小时跌幅1.06%
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