According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has demonstrated significant resilience this September, a month typically known for bearish trends. The cryptocurrency surged 22% from its monthly low of approximately $52,500, drawing attention to the critical $65,200 mark. Market participants are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can break out of its prolonged downward trading channel, which has persisted since reaching a record high in March.
An analysis using a 10% price increment system offers insights into Bitcoin's trading behaviour. This method provides a more accurate comparison than fixed dollar amounts, which can distort analysis as prices increase. By focusing on percentage changes, the analysis reveals how Bitcoin moves relative to its own value. Historically, the longest trading range occurred between $8,865 and $9,752, lasting 155 days during the 2018-2019 market cycle. This period followed the post-2017 bull-market peak and preceded the recovery starting in mid-2019.
More recently, Bitcoin spent 111 days trading between $54,271 and $59,699. Currently, it has spent 126 days in the range of $59,700 to $65,670, a period that could extend if historical patterns repeat. These prolonged consolidation periods are not unprecedented, as seen during the $8,000 to $12,000 range, where Bitcoin traded for hundreds of days. This historical perspective suggests that Bitcoin may continue trading in its current range until the end of October without breaking out.
These periods of consolidation and reduced volatility can be viewed positively. In the current cycle, drawdowns are the most muted compared to previous cycles, with the largest decline being just under 30%. This stability is crucial for new institutional investors who may be unable to handle extreme volatility swings. Bitcoin is currently up by less than 1% in the third quarter, with only five trading days remaining. The period has been challenging for Bitcoin, facing headwinds such as a sale by the German government and Mt. Gox redemptions. Additionally, the third quarter is typically the weakest for Bitcoin, according to Coinglass.
