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比特幣的價格走勢繼續與穩定幣的市值表現出強烈的相關性。歷史數據顯示,60天市值變化的峯值往往與比特幣的局部或全球峯值相吻合。目前,60天市值變化仍高於其60天變化的簡單移動平均線(SMA),這表明當前的調整是一個戰略階段,較弱的投資者正在退出。這爲潛在的進一步上漲趨勢提供了一個合理的冷卻期,暗示市場前景樂觀。
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Ethereum's futures market sentiment has shifted positively, as indicated by the Taker Buy Sell Ratio—a key metric for gauging market sentiment. Following Ethereum's rebound near the $3K support level, this ratio has risen significantly, highlighting an increase in market buy orders. This uptick suggests that market participants are optimistic about Ethereum's short-term price movement, with expectations of reaching the $4K resistance. A Taker Buy Sell Ratio above 1 typically signals buyer dominance, often preceding a bullish trend. Current data reflects growing trader confidence and anticipation of continued upward momentum.
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Coinbase Premium Index Surges Above SMA14 At 03:04 AM on January 3, the Coinbase Premium Index surpassed its 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA14) for the first time in 26 days, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. This development suggests that U.S.-based buyers are regaining dominance, a positive indicator for Bitcoin's market trajectory. Historical Context A similar pattern was observed on November 1, 2024, when the index broke above its SMA14, leading to a significant Bitcoin rally from $69,000 to $108,000, marking a new all-time high. Market Outlook As long as the Coinbase Premium Index remains above the SMA14, it indicates continued buyer strength, potentially influencing Bitcoin's price positively.
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Bitcoin's market performance has been significantly bolstered by the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, with ETF fund holdings steadily increasing and driving the price to an all-time high of $108K by year-end. This surge underscores the pivotal role of capital inflows through ETFs as a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. Looking ahead, the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration, effective January 2025, are anticipated to further enhance market conditions. Regulatory easing is expected to attract greater institutional participation, potentially boosting Bitcoin ETFs and supporting long-term growth. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant. A slowdown in ETF inflows, as observed in Q2 2024, could lead to temporary price stagnation. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for navigating potential volatility while maintaining an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's future.
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Bitcoin recently experienced a price correction after surpassing $108,000, raising concerns about a potential prolonged correction phase. However, key on-chain indicators suggest a different narrative. The Adjusted SOPR, using a 7-day SMA, shows a downward trend but remains above 1, indicating decreasing profits. Historically, a SOPR drop below 1 often triggers a rebound, aligning with bull market patterns. The Miner Position Index, also analyzed with a 7-day SMA, shows no mass transfers to exchanges, suggesting miners are holding Bitcoin. Declining network fees indicate reduced on-chain activity, signaling a cooling phase. Despite downward funding rates, Bitcoin has rebounded from similar scenarios before. Overall, on-chain data supports the continuation of the bull market, with the current phase likely a cooling-off period rather than a cycle peak. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic approach amidst short-term volatility.
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The Coinbase premium indicator has reached its lowest level since January 2023, signaling subdued sentiment among U.S. investors. Historically, negative premiums have preceded market rebounds, suggesting that pessimism may attract significant buying pressure, driving prices upward. Technical analysis identifies $90k as a crucial psychological support level, with past buying pressure reinforcing its importance. This level may serve as a battleground for bullish and bearish forces, potentially leading to complex movements like Stop-Hunting, which could offer strong buying opportunities. Despite current sentiment, the bull market appears intact. Long-term investors might consider maintaining their positions, anticipating further upside.
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